MOScout Daily Update: What If MO Isn’t Red This Year? - Big Medicaid Budget Ask - Schools Feel Pinch and more…

Schools Feel Pinch Already

The Post-Dispatch reports on eleven rural school districts “banding together to advocate for more public school funding, joining forces months before the General Assembly convenes to decide next year's budget.”

·       The school districts… are asking residents to call their state representatives to urge them to direct more state funding to public schools. Officials posted their calls to action on social media and district websites last week.

·       The move is in response to the state Board of Education's refusal last month to request full funding from the Legislature for the formula that directs state dollars to public schools. On Sept. 15, the board declined to approve a budget request from the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, or DESE, that asked for an additional $270 million to fully fund the formula.

Meanwhile

Other districts, like Macon, are publicly warning their communities that they’re issuing Tax Anticipation Notes – which seems like a payday loans for school districts.

What It Means

The budget fights are going to be brutal this year.  And they’re starting early.

Another No on 6 Ad

Yesterday I shared an ad from MO Protect PAC, working against Amendment 6.  Here’s another one.  It ties Amendment 6 to data centers.  These are hard-hitting and could move voters, but the question remains whether there’s money to get them on the air.

·       Meanwhile, Yes on 6 has raised over $4 million, has commercials running and mail already hitting voters.

Medicaid Driving Big Budget Ask

The Department of Social Services is asking for $20.19 billion, up $2.035 billion (11.2%) from the FY27 final appropriation. MO HealthNet accounts for $1.638 billion of the department’s increase.  This isn’t for some big expansion.  This is just to maintain current services continue at their current level. 

Other Nuggets from Budget Requests

·       The Department of Health and Senior Services’ long-term care ombudsman chart reports 5,160 licensed beds per paid ombudsman as of June 2026, up from 4,945 two years earlier. The book cites a benchmark of one ombudsman for 2,000 beds, based on a 1995 study. That makes the department’s ratio more than 2½ times the cited benchmark.

·       DHSS requests a new decision item for federal fund appropriation to implement a 2026 law requiring laboratories to electronically report alpha gal IgE results. “According to the CDC, Missouri is a high prevalence state for Alpha-Gal Syndrome, so the Department anticipates a high volume of reports to be received (potentially over 10,000).”

·       In an interesting note, the Department of Mental Health said one child needing a separate living unit prevented Hawthorn Children’s Psychiatric Hospital from using seven other beds in FY 2024 and FY 2025. The example illustrates how a small specialty hospital’s capacity can swing with one high-needs case.

·       Marijuana revenue has become a major source of support for the Public Defender’s Office. It would cover nearly 97% of its requested $13.2 million FY2028 budget increase, including an $11 million operations center in Columbia. The 2022 legalization amendment directs one-third of the revenue remaining after regulatory and expungement costs to public defenders.

·       The Governor’s Office request shows a new line for a full-time Director of Federal Affairs.  However, the office’s overall request stays at 32.5 FTE, meaning it’s a shift or reclassification from another position.

House Campaign Rundown

·       House 12 – Will of the People PAC is reprising a PPP hit they’d previously made on Melanie Stinnett.  With their latest Facebook ad, they’re hitting Republican Jerry Hickey for a $300,000 PPP loan.

·       House 94 – The firefighters’ union, Eastern Missouri Firefighters Local 2665, appears to be running a sustained field program for Democrat Cathy Summers with three scheduled Saturday canvasses. It calls House 94 “uniquely important for first responders” and is also recruiting Nov. 3 poll workers in Mehlville/Oakville.

·       House 96 – Organized labor is split in this race. The Laborers are with Rep. Brad Christ; the Teamsters are with Democrat Matt Vitale; and the AFL-CIO is sitting it out.

·       House 101 – Rep. Ben Keathley’s website says his campaign committee is now accepting donations in bitcoin.

What If Missouri Isn’t Red This Year

I used this slide in a presentation a few weeks ago to show that Missouri was a totally red state now…

But Axios this morning says polling is making once reliably red states look purple…

eMailbag

After Bailey's media and speaking tour last week, does anyone believe he would want to be Lt Governor where he'd be overshadowed every day by Kehoe and Hanaway? What will he spend his time as LG doing: suing the Arts Commission or giving tours at the capitol?

$5K+ Contributions

Citizens For Missouri Courts - $100,000 from Davis, Bethune & Jones, LLC.

Senate Democratic Campaign Committee - $100,000 from Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri-Kansas Area PAC.

NEMO Leadership PAC (pro-O’Laughlin) - $140,000 from Herzog Railroad Services.

Great Northwest PAC (pro-Rusty Black) - $200,000 from Herzog Railroad Services.

Heartland Action PAC (pro-Jake Zimmerman) - $50,000 from BUILD St. Louis PAC Inc.

Heartland Action PAC - $25,000 from Plumbers & Pipefitters Local 562.

Heartland Action PAC - $7,350 from IUOE Local 513 Political & Education Fund.

Citizens for the Parkway Community - $10,000 from Missouri NEA PAC.

HBS MO State PAC - $15,000 from Tenaska Clear Creek Wind LLC (Omaha, NE).

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Hardy Billington, Larry Pleus, John Mayfield, Linda Black Thomure, and Mike Dauphin.