MOScout Daily Update: SNAP Error Rte Watch - O’Laughlin for DESE Commish? - Herzog $$$ to PAC - Hervey New Realtors CEO and more…

Rumorville: SBOE Mulls Installing O’Laughlin

Some observers think the State Board of Education is itching to make a change in leadership.  Its next scheduled meeting is Tuesday.  See their agenda here.  One rumor making the rounds is that the board will replace interim DESE commissioner Stacey Preis with Senate Pro Tem Cindy O’Laughlin.

Preis has indicated that she’s not interested in the permanent position, while O’Laughlin has indicated interest.  O’Laughlin is thought to have the backing of Governor Mike Kehoe, who has found her a reliable ally to advance his gubernatorial agenda.

The concern is that elevating O’Laughlin would short-circuit the national search for a permanent commissioner, if the move was done with a wink that she had the inside track for that position.

·       The national search is just beginning its process.  The National Association of State Boards of Education was hired to assist the board, but no formal job posting has occurred.  Preis was supposed to remain interim commissioner through the current school year, while the board took applications, conducted rounds of interviews, and selected a new DESE commissioner.

SNAP Error Rate Watch

In DSS’s budget request they are projecting a SNAP benefit error rate of 5.27%.  This is very significant because a new federal law says that beginning October 1, 2027, states must help pay for SNAP benefits if their payment-error rate is too high:

- Below 6%: state pays nothing.

- 6%–8%: state pays 5%.

- 8%–10%: state pays 10%.

- Above 10%: state pays 15%.

Missouri’s official 2025 rate was 8.67%. If that rate applies, Missouri would owe roughly $150 million annually.  DSS says its preliminary 2026 rate of 5.27% “represents data from October 2025 through April 2026. The official error rate will be available June 2027.” That’s just below the 6% cutoff. It is therefore budgeting nothing for the state share of SNAP benefits.

Also, DSS’s chart is labeled “Positive Error Rate (PER).” In current federal SNAP law, PER means “Payment Error Rate,” not “Positive Error Rate.” It could be a typo or it could reference a slightly different calculation.

Roe-Lager Axis Loads Up Excelsior PAC

Committees and companies normally allied with Republican consultant Jeff Roe have deposited over $1 million in the last couple of days into various committees.

·       Excelsior PAC – $370,000 from American Democracy Alliance.

·       Excelsior PAC - $180,000 from Trails West, Inc.

·       Excelsior PAC - $120,000 from Herzog Action Fund.

·       NEMO Leadership PAC (pro-O’Laughlin) - $140,000 from Herzog Railroad Services.

·       Great Northwest PAC (pro-Rusty Black) - $200,000 from Herzog Railroad Services.

The purpose of Excelsior PAC is unknown.  It has been inactive recently.  Its treasurer is Chris Vas, who is tied to various Herzog initiatives.  He is a member of Governor Mike Kehoe’s task force to modernize the foundation formula.

·       The money may be used to shore up Republican candidates, or perhaps to fight Amendment 6, or may even take a whack at the judiciary. We’ll see…

The Case for Data Centers

One MOScouter reacts to the schools concerned about flat funding from the state: The 11 school districts calling for increased state funding are located in Ste. Genevieve, St. Francois, and Washington counties. Meanwhile, in Warrenton, a new data center is expected to generate so much revenue for the local school district that officials plan to reduce property taxes to the state minimum.  Yet Ste. Genevieve County, St. Francois County, and the City of Desloge are all considering moratoriums on data center development. 

·       Perhaps instead of demanding more funding from Jefferson City, these communities should focus on encouraging the kind of economic growth that can generate substantial local revenue, strengthen their schools, and reduce the tax burden on residents.

SCOMO Hears SB 754 Case

This morning, the Missouri Supreme Court hears arguments in Article III Institute v. State, challenging the constitutionality of 2024’s SB 754. The public-safety package includes Blair’s Law, targeting reckless gunfire, and Valentine’s Law, penalizing dangerous flight from police.

·       Challengers argue the title, “relating to public safety,” is so vague that it violates the constitution’s clear-title requirement.  “The Clear Title requirement is a way of ensuring that both legislators and members of the public are informed in a useful way as to the content of bills the legislature is considering… That phrase could easily include the better part of all bills considered by the legislature and, thus, it does not meaningfully notify readers of a bill’s contents.”

House Campaign Rundown

House 96 – Democrat Matt Vitale’s ad (see it here) hits incumbent Brad Christ on affordability. “I'm a dad to two young boys and I know how unaffordable everything is right now. While costs rise, Brad Christ prioritizes rigging maps for Trump and new taxes on things we use every day. A policy 80% of us rejected.  In the state house, I'll fight for our fair share of state dollars and lower property taxes, not bowing to Trump, not new taxes on things that we’re already struggling to afford. I'm Matt Vitale and it's time to flip District 96.

HD130 – There’s been a cluster of activity in Democrat Leslie Jones’ operation.  She’s running against Rep. Bishop Davidson and has the message down pat.  My name is Leslie Jones. I am running against the author of amendment 5 and I believe we deserve better than out-of-touch career politicians.  This isn’t on my PowerRankings, but my best reconstruction from Greene County’s precinct returns shows that House 130 performed in line with statewide totals last summer: about 83% voted against Amendment 5, which Davidson loudly and visibly championed.  Even with a hard-working candidate, and a pitch-perfect message, it’s a really, really longshot. 

Hanaway Sues Temu

Attorney General Catherine Hanaway is targeting the Chinese e-commerce company Temu with a lawsuit.  Read the suit here.  Temu is a shopping app with ties to China that covertly collects a substantial amount of personal data about Missouri consumers, well beyond what is

necessary for a shopping app. Temu conceals from or deceives consumers about its data-collection practices, engineering its app in a manner that is meant to hide its data exfiltration and further making demonstrably false representations and engaging in material omissions as to its privacy-invasive conduct.

Some of the allegations inside the suit sound like high-tech cyber-sabotage…

·       The Temu app has contained code that allowed Temu to transmit copies of the third-party apps, themselves, to unknown servers for unknown purposes.  This APK upload handler enabled Temu to read, copy, and transmit a user’s apps, even if those apps were proprietary or involved in the handling of deeply confidential information.

·       Forensic research reveals that the Temu app contained a specific string command, “QWERTY,” that when initiated would deactivate dynamic patches that had previously been managed by the Manwe SDK.  Thus, if caught, the Temu app was coded to destroy evidence of code change…

Hervey Takes Reins of Realtors

Missouri REALTORS® announced it has named Erin Hervey as its next Chief Executive Officer. Hervey currently serves as Vice President, Government Affairs and Local Board Relations for the Association. She was selected by Missouri REALTORS® CEO Search Committee and Executive Committee.

·       Throughout her more than 25 years with the association, Hervey has championed advocacy efforts on behalf of Missouri REALTORS® and its members, bringing extensive experience and institutional knowledge to her work. She holds a bachelor’s degree in political science and history from the University of Missouri-Columbia.

$5K+ Contributions

Excelsior PAC – $370,000 from American Democracy Alliance.

Excelsior PAC - $180,000 from Trails West, Inc.

Excelsior PAC - $120,000 from Herzog Action Fund.

Beverly PAC (pro-Mike Jones) - $50,000 from MCR PAC.

Missouri Leadership PAC (pro-Riley) - $20,000 from Missouri Gaming PAC.

Missouri Leadership PAC - $10,000 from MoCannTrade PAC.

Missouri Leadership PAC - $10,000 from Nexus PAC.

Missouri Leadership PAC - $7,500 from MOCS Action.

Heartland Action PAC (pro-Zimmerman) - $12,000 from David Schneider (Washington, DC).

Stop the Ban - $50,000 from Beacon Reproductive Health Network.

Stop the Ban - $7,500 from Women's Political Caucus EMPAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $45,000 from White River Leadership PAC (pro-Owen).

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $16,500 from Citizens for Jeff Myers.

Senate Democratic Campaign Committee - $6,000 from Charter Communications Operating, LLC.

Missouri Right to Life PAC - $25,000 from Joseph Knaebel.

Missouri Right to Life PAC - $20,000 from Therese Sander.

Missouri Right to Life PAC - $10,000 from Robert Landgraf.

MALO PAC - $25,000 from Nixon Capital RT LLC.

MALO PAC - $15,000 from ACM LLC.

MALO PAC - $30,000 from License Office Services.

Citizens For Missouri Courts - $10,000 from Stinson LLP.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Jeremy LaFaver and Casey Guersey.