MOScout Daily Update: GOP Already Worried About 2028 - Power Watch - House Campaigns Rundown and more...

1 Big Thing: 2028 Might Be Worse for GOP

As Missouri Republicans stare down a miserable November election night, it’s hard to see any optimism looking around the corner.  One observer put it bluntly: 2028 may be just as bad, if not worse.  “Trump will still be president; the Iran war will still be going on.”

30 House members will be termed in 2024; 20 of those are Republicans.

·       One Republican consultant told me they’re privately praying for Dems nationally to take both the House and Senate to rein Trump in and give Republicans a boogeyman in 2028.

Markets See Democratic House, Wagner Win

A new working paper pooled prices from Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt for every 2026 congressional race. The markets expect Democrats to win about 240 House seats and put their chance of controlling the chamber at roughly 91%.

They give Congresswoman Ann Wagner a 75.5% chance of winning MO-02.  Even in a national environment strongly favoring Democrats, bettors see Wagner as roughly a 3-to-1 favorite.

Meanwhile

A new poll from Public Policy Polling puts that race at a statistical tie.

Power Question

The Post-Dispatch reports that the Office of Public Counsel wants data centers to pay for Evergy’s proposed 440-megawatt Mullin Creek No. 2 natural-gas plant. Public Counsel says two data centers account for 90% of Evergy’s new load and the plant would not otherwise be needed. This is the first case under Missouri’s new Construction Work in Progress law, which allows utilities to begin charging customers for plants before they begin producing power.

Meanwhile

I’ve been thinking a bit lately about how radically the utility industry’s outlook has changed in just a few years.  Not that long ago Ameren was forecasting flat electric consumption.  

·       Its 2017 plan said “customer sales are forecasted to decline over the next 20 years largely due to increasing energy efficiency as well as adoption of private generation resources such as rooftop solar.”

·       As recently as 2023, it projected peak demand would rise only 569 megawatts in the next 20 years.  “[P]eak load in 2024 is projected to be 7,049 MW, growing to 7,618 MW by 2043.”

And now, with the stunning rise of AI and data centers, Ameren has signed agreements to serve 2,800 megawatts of large-load demand by 2030.

And

Today the Public Service Commission will hold its Power MO Summit.  See the agenda here.

Sireno Takes DESE Reins

Press release:  Dr. Stacey Preis unexpectedly resigned as Missouri’s Interim Commissioner of Education during the State Board of Education meeting on Tuesday, October 20, with the resignation taking immediate effect. Following her departure, the State Board appointed Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education’s (DESE) Deputy Commissioner of Learning Services Lisa Sireno to serve as Interim Commissioner of Education, effective Wednesday, October 21, 2026.

eMailbag on SBOE

It’s a tough job.  One MOScouter catalogues the state board’s situation: The formula/budget decision was a needless error. A-F rollout has been a debacle and it’s still not final. Their strategic planning process has been going on for over a year and the best they can come up with is a retread of the Top 10 by 20 goal that the previous board set 15 years ago.  Anyone that watches the board dynamics can see they have no idea what their role is supposed to be. It’s now led to two commissioners bailing in less than 6 months and the crowds in attendance at meetings continues to grow. Whoever the board dupes into taking the job is set up to fail. Epicly.

Rumorville: Pearson to AG’s Office

One rumor is that Governor Mike Kehoe’s general counsel, Lowell Pearson, will be exiting and moving over to the Attorney General’s office.

House Race Rundown

·       House 16 – A-F School Report Card issue enters the race. Democrat Dan Kinate attacks Rep. Chris Brown over HB2710, tying Brown’s yes vote to an A–F school-grading approach amid NKC Schools’ $16 million shortfall.

·       House 17 – Similar to House 16, Democrat Susan Hoisington says Rep. Bill Allen co-sponsored the school-grading legislation.

·       House 44 – Dems expanding the map? This district hasn’t been on my watch list, but recent non-committee expenditures show Abortion Action and Missouri Jobs for Justice report spending money for Democrat Bekki Brewer.  This was a +20 GOP district in 2024.

·       House 94 – Democrat Cathy Summers’ latest ad gives a forceful argument: Eight years of Jim Murphy. Now it’s his wife’s turn?... We voted for sick leave; they took it away 8 days later. We voted for women’s rights; they’ve called for a do-over…  They were never working for us…  The Murphys: same family, same donors, same contempt for us… I’m running to earn this seat, not inherit it.

·       House 96 – After Rep. Brad Christ put out a “newspaper” touting his work across the aisle with Sen. Doug Beck, Beck posted to make it clear he supports Democrat Matt Vitale.  Meanwhile, former Rep. Travis Smith jumps into the comment section of a Vitale post: Citizens in this district need to think about something very important. Brad has a real opportunity to become the Speaker of the House. The things he could do for your area for your district would be amazing. As much as you want to flip this seat, if Matt wins he will never be a committee chairman, probably never pass a bill and basically be there to "fight" for you with speeches on the floor that is nothing more than a soundbite. Be smart, vote for a man that can actually be of a help to your district.

·       House 100 – Democrat Mary Ann Perkins hits Rep. Phil Oehlerking for “lacking courage” and taking walks on important votes.  See it here.

·       House 105 - HRCC uses Democrat Cat Clayton’s old dating app profile in their opposition website.  They say she’s not a good “match” for the district.  See it here.

·       House 110 – Republican Niles Stephens says Democrat Claire Heinrich is “not being honest.” My opponent is promising to "bring home the bacon" for the City of Wildwood in the middle of a budget crunch in Missouri. On Monday night she told City of Wildwood, MO - Government members she was running to demand more state money for the district.  She's not being honest with the Council or the voters in HD 110. The State of Missouri's budget will necessarily have to come back to reality now that the massive government inflation years of the Biden Administration are behind us. The only way to keep the budget above $50bil would be to raise taxes. Are you going to vote for higher taxes? I am not.

DOC Sued Over Sunshine

A St. Louis mother is suing the Department of Corrections, alleging the agency refused to release records surrounding her son’s death despite losing a nearly identical Sunshine Law case.

Devonta Latchison, 29, died at Northeast Correctional Center in March 2025. His mother, Larisher Devoil, requested video, cell-check logs, incident reports and the investigative file. According to the suit, DOC provided only a face sheet and – 13 months later – an autopsy.

The filing cites the 2024 Hynes decision, in which the Western District upheld a finding that DOC purposefully violated the Sunshine Law by withholding comparable records from another mother. DOC was assessed the maximum $5,000 penalty and $55,509 in fees and costs.

Lobbyist Registrations

Sarah Jackson added FMR LLC.

$5K+ Contributions

Will of the People - $245,000 from Missouri Voter Project - State PAC.

Excelsior PAC (pro-A3) - $130,000 from NEMO Leadership PAC.

Stop the Ban - $15,000 from Patricia Whitaker.

Protect Freedom and Democracy - $250,000 from Stop the Ban.

Protect Freedom and Democracy - $25,690 from Missouri Jobs with Justice Voter Action.

Vote Yes on Amendment 6 - $138,972 from Heavy Construction Laborers Local Union #663.

Vote Yes on Amendment 6 - $10,000 from United Steel Workers (Pittsburgh, PA).

Missouri Voter Project - State PAC - $100,000 from Missouri Wins Investor Network.

Brad PAC (pro-Hudson) - $5,500 from Missouri Gaming PAC.

Conservative Justice PAC - $75,000 from Ketchmark & McCreight, P.C (Leawood, KS).

Missouri Enterprise Fund (pro-Hardwick) - $25,000 from Conservative Justice PAC, LLC.

Missouri Republicans PAC (pro-Schnelting) - $25,000 from Conservative Justice PAC, LLC.

People Not Politicians - $50,000 from Health Forward Foundation.

People Not Politicians - $11,286 from DCCC (Washington, DC).

Paladin PAC - $48,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC.

Senate Democratic Campaign Committee - $50,000 from DougPAC.

Senate Democratic Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Ready to Lead.

Senate Democratic Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Construction & General Laborers' Local.

Heartland Action PAC - $50,000 from Midwest Region Laborers Political League Ed Fund.

Heartland Action PAC - $7,400 from Michael Staenberg.

Teamsters Local Union No 688 Political Action Committee - $9,194 from Missouri PAC Federal Committee.

Fair Missouri - $10,000 from Parents for Safer Streets PAC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Caleb Rowden, Rocky Miller, and Chris Kelly (the big 8-0).