MOScout Daily Update: The Turnout Question - Truman Exits COPHE - Foley on Budget Tricks and more…
The Turnout Question
The big question vexing folks looking at this election is turnout. Pollsters can collect the same data and get very different pictures of the electorate depending on how they weight their samples and model who will vote.
The latest Remington Research statewide survey, commissioned by MOScout, for example, used a model with a 15-point Republican advantage. The question is whether historical voting patterns hold in a potentially very different cycle.
That uncertainty has Republicans especially nervous. The GOP seemingly lacks enthusiasm while Democrats are fired up.
Turnout is why candidates of both parties are now touting early voting. And it’s why HRCC is deploying dollars for a “turnout campaign.” In past cycles, Republicans could count on enthusiasm to help bring their voters out. This year, they have two sales pitches to make: Our candidate is right for you. And this election is worth showing up for.
Truman Leaves COPHE
According to the Financial Report prepared for today’s Truman State University Board of Governors meeting, the institution has withdrawn from the Council on Public Higher Education. The document shows a decrease in expenses ($30,219) from the move.
· They are no longer listed on the COPHE roster.
Why It Matters
This comes as higher education institutions face possible budget cuts in a tight budget year and are expected to revamp their funding formulas. Truman is seen as vulnerable as liberal arts are unfashionable right now.
Beers & Budget: Foley on Budget Tricks
In the latest episode of Beers & Budget Podcast, lobbyist Andy Foley offers insights and shares a few of his tricks of the trade. Watch here.
Erin Schrimpf asks, “If you’re going to try to get something in the budget—name the chamber?” Foley says: “Senate… With how tight the budget’s going to be, the governor’s going to take out a bunch of lapses, so there’s not going to be a ton of lapses in there to go find. You’re going to have to create enemies by taking from somebody, and I just don’t like doing that. So I’d rather go to the Senate side.”
House restraint hands leverage to the Senate: “In a way, [the House] kind of lets the Senate write the budget. If the House doesn’t put anything in the budget, it’s hard to negotiate in conference, because then the Senate has all these adds and they’re like, ‘Well, we want all this stuff.’ The House has nothing to ask for. So they’ve got to put some stuff in there so they can trade it away in conference.”
Core budgets attract less scrutiny: “Bureaucrats are able to hide stuff in [their core budget] and say, ‘Oh, it’s just been in our core forever. Don’t worry about it.’ Then some of the programs cycle off, and they have maybe a couple million dollars they can use for something new. The legislature just kind of says, ‘Oh yeah, it’s your core. It’s fine,’ and they just keep approving it.”
And he sees two big fights coming…
Judiciary budget warning: “I’m very interested in what they’re going to do with the judiciary’s budget next year after all the things we’ve dealt with this summer. The judiciary’s budget… will cause some fireworks and some ruckus.”
School-funding ‘knife-fight’: “It’s going to be hard to write a foundation formula that doesn’t include losers if you don’t put more money into it… Every legislator—if you go home and your schools are getting less money, that’s not going to reflect well on you… It is going to be hand-to-hand warfare between school districts, between neighbors.”
Springfield Chamber Joins No on 6 Campaign
Press release: The Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce Board of Directors voted Monday to oppose Amendment 6 on Missouri's November 3 ballot, citing concerns that the proposal would create uncertainty for employers, limit the ability to address unintended consequences of voter-approved laws and undermine longstanding efforts to reform the state's initiative petition process.
Race Updates
· Senate 8 – The latest ad from JP eschews all issues and any hint of partisanship and highlights his medical profession: “I remember looking at the ceiling thinking about my son’s face, wondering if I’d ever see it again. Then Dr. Jon Patterson took my hand. He said, “I’m not leaving until you’re okay.” My son has his mom because of Jon Patterson. Now he wants to take care of Jakson County the way he took care of me – honestly, steadily… We couldn’t be in better hands than Dr Jon Patterson.”
· House 31 – It looks like HRCC is spending money here. Maybe not a ton, but even to spend some money means it’s on their watch list. This is a defense of Rep. Ron Fowler in Blue Springs. See a Facebook ad here.
· House 101 – Democrat Paul Lentz’ ad echoes other Dem attacks on Republicans for their repeal of sick leave. See it here. Ben Keathley spent his time at the capitol fighting for his wealthy donors, not us. In fact, every time we win something at the ballot box, he fights to take it away. He fought to repeal sick leave 8 days after it passed. He fought to cut his donors’ taxes while raising them for the rest of us. And when Trump demanded rigged maps, Keathley fought for that, too. I'm Paul Lentz, an accountant, software engineer, and small business manager. I'm running to fight for you in Jeff City, not Trump.
Missouri Company in WSJ
The Wall Street Journal highlights a St. Louis company… Hundreds of executives have made the pilgrimage to St. Louis to try to replicate Steve Gund’s elusive feat: He’s the third-generation CEO of a family manufacturer that has averaged 18% annual growth for a decade—all without ever laying off an employee.
eMailbag on A-F
After 20 years of Missouri children sliding backwards in reading scores, Kehoe promised different and appointed a board set to deliver on that promise. Anyone surprised that big changes are coming hasn’t been paying attention.
eMailbag on Mullin Creek
The Mullin Creek plant was planned for reliability reasons years ago. The plant has nothing to do with data centers. Everyone else in the case (including RenewMO) agreed. Just because the OPC says it, doesn’t make it true.
Lobbyist Registrations
Ryan DeBoef added Smart Plastic Technologies, LLC.
$5K+ Contributions
Real Action PAC (pro-Christ) - $7,547 from Citizens for a Better Government.
Real Action PAC - $6,289 from Citizens for a Better Government.
Lead the Way PAC (pro-Vogel) - $25,000 from Conservative Justice PAC LLC.
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri (pro-Bean) - $25,000 from Conservative Justice PAC, LLC.
Missouri Leadership PAC (pro-Riley) - $10,000 from Charter Communications.
Will of the People - $200,000 from Missouri Voter Project - State PAC.
Missouri Voter Project - State PAC - $100,000 from Missouri Wins Investor Network.
People Not Politicians - $180,000 from The Fairness Project (Washington, DC).
People Not Politicians - $10,000 from Cathy Duvall (Washington, DC).
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $10,000 from Cement Mason Local Union # 518-PAC.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $6,700 from Empowered Missouri Citizens for Kinate.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Health PAC.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $25,000 from The Leadbelt PAC.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from The Wonderdog PAC.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Oracle America Inc. (Redwood Shores, CA).
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $15,000 from Missouri Leadership PAC.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $7,500 from Michael Himmelberg.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $20,000 from David Dobbs.
Citizens for a Better Government - $750,000 from House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc.
Citizens for a Better Government - $300,000 from Missourians for Justice.
Missourians for Justice - $750,000 from House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc.
Voters for Integrity - $30,000 from Missourians for Justice.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $50,000 from MCR PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $15,000 from Hurlbert for Missouri.
Prop L Supporters - $10,000 from Jeff Smith.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $20,000 from Citizens for John Elliott.
Univ of MO Flagship Council PAC - $10,000 from Langdon and Emison LLC.
Missouri Right to Life PAC - $10,000 from John S Kennedy.
River Guard PAC - $10,000 from Leonard Drey.
Nexus PAC - $20,000 from Nexus Group.
Respect MO Voters Campaign - $5,162 from Roger Kepner.
Citizens for Daniel Wilson - $10,000 from Daniel Wilson.
Jason Maki for Platte County - $25,000 from Jason Maki.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Wick Thomas, Kenny Murdock, and Leann Hager.