MOScout Daily Update: Wilson Targeted? - MOChamber Endorsements - Bailey Focused on Chores and more…
Wilson Targeted?
A survey apparently in the field is asking questions about retaining Missouri Supreme Court Justice Paul Wilson. See it here.
Among its questions…
· Democrat Governor Jay Nixon appointed Judge Paul C. Wilson to the Missouri Supreme Court over 20 years ago. Does knowing this make you more or less likely to vote NO and remove Judge Paul C. Wilson from office?
· If President Trump encouraged you to vote NO and remove Judge Paul C. Wilson from office, would you be more or less likely to vote to remove Judge Paul C. Wilson from office?
With references to Nixon and Trump, the poll appears to be testing whether Wilson can be defeated by turning his retention race into a partisan referendum.
Who wants Wilson defeated? The strongest documented players are:
· Missouri Right to Life PAC. Its new judicial guide makes Wilson the only judge for whom it offers a definitive recommendation: Vote No. It says he “consistently sides with [the] pro-abortion side” and cites his 2024 Amendment 3 opinion.
· Freedom Principle MO. Byron Keelin has publicly announced a social-media and voter-education effort focused on Wilson’s retention, attacking the court over Amendment 3, Amendment 6, ballot-language cases and the Missouri Plan.
· Marc Cox and allied conservative media. Cox is explicitly recommending a no vote, blaming Wilson for the decision placing abortion-rights Amendment 3 on the 2024 ballot.
Could there be a very late, highly-partisan campaign coming, aimed at a relatively obscure judicial retention vote, counting on elevated pro-life turnout from A3, and anchored on a Trump statement about Wilson? “Nixon’s judge; Trump says” is a simple message that can spread quickly through texts, social media, talk radio and voter guides.
· If the survey is a precursor to an organized anti-retention campaign, Wilson would not necessarily remain on the sidelines. Supreme Court Rule 2-4.2 allows a retention judge facing active opposition to campaign in response and raise campaign funds. But a late campaign could be hard to counter.
And
The poll misstates a matter of fact. Nixon appointed Wilson to the Supreme Court on December 3, 2012. That’s about 14 years ago, not “over 20 years ago.”
Meanwhile… Drury’s Two Fronts on Abortion
One reader points out to me that the Drury-family-related corporations have given about $800,000 to Her Health, Her Future PAC, making them one of the campaign’s biggest known donors. And… Tim Drury is one of three non-lawyer citizens serving on the appellate nominating commission – the group that interviews candidates and provides three finalists for the governor to select for vacant Supreme Court and appellate court positions.
“Each commissioner serves a staggered term and works to find competent, impartial, and fair judges. Yet, Drury is donating all of his signs and hundreds of thousands of dollars in an effort to boost Amendment 3. Having an opinion is one thing. Serving on an expired term in an effort to stack the courts with folks who don’t want to acknowledge a woman’s right to self-determination is deeply problematic.”
MOChamber Endorsements
The Missouri Chamber PAC released its general election endorsements. Find them here.
· They’re sitting out the two battleground Senate races in Senate 8 and Senate 30, presumably because all four candidates – currently House members – have acceptable records.
· And in the House battleground districts, it mostly backed incumbents. However, a couple of those races have no endorsement (House 100: Oehlerking, House 101: Keathley and House 132: Dean).
Matthiesen in Thailand
The Post-Dispatch reports that Rep. Mark Matthiesen’s family has relocated to Thailand.
Incumbent Mark Matthiesen said his wife, an ICU nurse, was burnt out by the job and wanted to make a "massive change" in her life. The family eventually settled on moving to Thailand, with the caveat that Matthiesen, a three-term state representative, would stay behind due to his duties at the Legislature… Matthiesen said they are renting out their four-bedroom house on Emmons Drive in O'Fallon, and he has moved to a smaller home on Doris Avenue. He said he would travel to Thailand at least seven weeks out of the year to see his family… He is in Thailand for another week or so, before returning to the U.S. to focus on his reelection campaign.
Bailey Says He’s Focused on Chores, Not 2028
Former AG Andrew Bailey tells Spectrum News that he’s “not a candidate for public office.”
· Anything I do in the future is going to be based on what I’m hearing from the people. But right now, I’m solely focused on spending time with my family, and the list of chores that have built up over the past year when I was away from home.
Funding Graduates Who Stay
There’s a new (not yet peer-reviewed) academic paper looking at “the causes and consequences of out-of-state enrollment at public universities.”
From the abstract: Public flagship universities increasingly use nonresident tuition revenues to offset declining state funding… We then trace how nonresident enrollment redirects graduates across state labor markets. Using variation in the state-of-origin composition of UA cohorts and a shift-share instrument constructed from origin states' non-UA out-of-state enrollment rates, we estimate that every 100 out-of-state students cause 9–15 additional in-state students to leave the state after college.
· It raises an intriguing idea as Missouri’s higher education institutions consider a change in their funding structure: should Missouri reward universities not for enrolling and graduating students, but for producing graduates who remain and work in Missouri?
eMailbag on ‘Return’ of VLTs
Machines coming back online gives credence to the argument for regulation. Prosecuting grey machines is and has always been a game of whack-a-mole. Trying to eliminate existing machines only results in others returning with modifications or exploiting a different legal loophole. That pattern has and will continue until Legislators update the law and provide a framework allowing local municipalities to manage them. Until then, there will always be another game and another loophole.
Lobbyist Registrations
David Winton and Jessica Petrie added Blue Cloud Pediatric Surgery Centers.
Derek Coats deleted Jefferson City Regional Economic Partnership.
$5K+ Contributions
Make Jefferson County Great Again PAC (pro-Avery) - $50,000 from Mid America Carpenters Regional Council MO-KS PAC.
Real Action PAC (pro-Christ) - $20,000 from David Steward.
AshPac (pro-Aune) - $10,000 from PENN Entertainment Inc. (Wyomissing, PA).
Yes on Amendment 6 - $100,000 from MSCEW PAC Federal Cmte.
Vote Yes on Amendment 6 - $73,497 from Missouri AFL-CIO.
Stop the Ban - $100,000 from Reproductive Freedom for All (Washington, DC).
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $25,000 from Stephen Dunn (Fairway, KS).
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $10,000 from Donald Ross.
MoCannTrade PAC - $10,000 from Curio Holdings, LLC.
Safer Families for Missouri - $25,000 from Edelman and Thompson, L.L.C.
St. Charles Realtors PAC - $5,115 from Theresa Gander.
Best Start for Kids STL - $25,000 from John McDonnell.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. John Simmons and Yancy Williams.