It’s Veterans Day. State offices are closed.
Could Senate 23 Flip in 2028?
Looking ahead to where competitive races might be in the 2028 cycle, Senate 23 is probably going to show up on lists after Democrats made inroads in St. Charles County.
Sen. Adam Schnelting won the district in 2024 by 10.2 points, beating Matt Williams 55.1% to 44.9%. But the ultraconservative Freedom Caucus member looks more vulnerable after last week’s results.
All three House districts that Dems flipped in St. Charles County sit entirely inside Senate 23. Tara Murray ousted Rep. Terri Violet in House 104; Cat Clayton beat Rep. Colin Wellenkamp in House 105; and Jewel Kelly took House 106, defeating Rep. Travis Wilson. Each Democrat won by double digits. Together, those districts account for about 62% of Senate 23’s population.
Other pieces of the district were competitive as well. Rep. Wendy Hausman only held House 65 by 352 votes, while Rep. Scott Miller survived in House 69 by just 67 votes against Chris Chapman, whom he had beaten by more than 3,000 votes two years earlier. Portions of those two House districts account for another 32% of Senate 23’s population.
But
The determining factor may be turnout. Can Dems maintain their enthusiasm advantage in 2028 when a presidential election brings more voters to the polls?
St. Charles County turnout was 76.1% in 2024, compared with 55.9% last week. That’s roughly 61,000 more ballots in the presidential election.
Across the three flipped House seats, Democratic candidates received about 1,400 fewer votes than in 2024. Republican candidates received more than 11,000 fewer. Democrats held much more of their presidential-year vote. Whether they can preserve that advantage when the larger electorate returns will be critical to Schnelting’s reelection prospects.
Session Issues: Education
Here’s a quick look at how the elections changed the landscape for charter schools, vouchers and traditional public schools.
Overall, while the school-choice supporters still have powerful friends – Governor Mike Kehoe remains a prominent champion and incoming Senate leaders Jason Bean and Nick Schroer both supported SB 727, the big 2024 education package – the allies of traditional public-schools made significant gains.
The Senate
· Wins by Keri Ingle and Betsy Fogle put two outspoken public-school advocates in the chamber.
· Republican Greg Sharpe, succeeding Cindy O’Laughlin, opposed SB 727 as well as last session’s narrower charter-property bill.
· Republican Sam Alexander, succeeding Sandy Crawford, campaigned against choice proposals he believes threaten small rural schools.
· Republican Lori Rook, who defeated Curtis Trent, accused Republicans – including Trent – of undermining public education. She looks less receptive to the existing choice agenda.
The House
SB 727 passed with exactly 82 votes. In other words, there’s very little margin for error for choice advocates.
· November’s results hit them where it hurts. They lost suburban Republicans who were more likely to support their agenda while retaining rural Republicans more likely to defect.
· Supporters who lost include Reps. Brad Christ, Philip Oehlerking and Ben Keathley. Their replacements – Matt Vitale, Mary Ann Perkins and Paul Lentz – campaigned against private-school vouchers and for protecting district schools.
Meanwhile the looming budget crisis adds another obstacle. This year’s budget provided $60 million for MOScholars while leaving the foundation formula about $190 million short. Expect more lawmakers to challenge that ordering of priorities. And there’s no money available to repeat the 2024 bargain, when teacher-pay increases and additional district funding helped get choice expansion across the finish line.
· One negotiation to watch: Last session, Sen. Stephen Webber was willing to accept charter expansion elsewhere in exchange for removing Boone County. Schroer wanted universal statewide choice. Those two now lead their respective Senate caucuses.
Secker’s Long and Winding Road to Jeff City
It looks like there’s one final turn in Louise Secker’s long and winding road to Jefferson City from Joplin’s House 161.
Secker lost the August Republican primary to Thomas Ross by just 33 votes. But behind the scene, strange things were happening…
By early September, she had gone several weeks without campaigning. That’s because the FBI had been investigating Ross since late July over an alleged scheme to have his former campaign manager plant cocaine and Adderall in Secker’s purse or vehicle. Ross was arrested and charged.
After Ross withdrew, the district’s Republican committee unanimously selected Secker to replace him on the November ballot. She restarted her campaign and won a tight general election, beating Democrat Aaron Metzger by 296 votes, 3,819–3,523.
Now… it turns out that the local authorities failed to count two precincts! And her tight election wasn’t so tight after all…
Help Wanted
Starkloff Disability Institute seeks Director of Disability Policy. This senior leadership role will drive policy initiatives focused on employment, economic opportunity, inclusion, accessibility, and universal design, helping to remove barriers to full participation for people with disabilities while positioning Starkloff as a leading disability-led policy voice in Missouri.
Lobbyist Registrations
Graham Dorland added Pretium Partners, LLC.
Jorgen Schlemeier, David Jackson, Sarah Schlemeier, Nikki Strong, Jeffrey Brooks, and Elizabeth Grace Riley added Cartwheel Care, Inc.
$5K+ Contributions
Brad PAC (pro-Hudson) - $10,000 from MCR PAC.
Taxpayers Unlimited, Inc. – $11,500 from KERI PAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Tashayla Person, Harrison Sweazea, Tom Shively, Dwight Scharnhorst, and Terry Young.