Senate 23 in Dems’ Crosshairs
Following my write-up yesterday about Senate 23 being a possible flip for Dems in 2028, one Democratic consultant confirmed that it’ll be a focus of their efforts…
Senate District 23 is primed to be a big target for Democrats next year. Matt Williams recruited Jewel [Kelly] and Cat [Clayton] to run and mentored and volunteered for them every step of the way. He rejuvenated the St. Charles County Democratic Club which has over 70 activists at each of their meetings… Matt is slated to host his first fundraiser before the end of this year.
SD23 has either the most or almost the most union members of any Senate District. I expect this to be a target of organized labor as [Sen. Adam] Schnelting has not been a friend to them. There is a lot of excitement in St. Charles right now…
And - Senate 15?
Using the same analysis for Senate 15 that I did for Senate 23 shows that it’s another race Dems will likely be eyeing in 2028. Sen. David Gregory will be up for re-election.
The clearest warning signs for Republicans come from House 100 and House 101, both entirely inside Senate 15. Mary Ann Perkins defeated Rep. Philip Oehlerking in HD100, while Paul Lentz defeated Rep. Ben Keathley in HD101. Together, those districts account for 40% of Senate 15’s population, based on my calculations.
And House 110 also sits entirely inside Senate 15. Although Republican Niles Stephens beat Democrat Claire Heinrich, it wasn’t a convincing win. Stephens won by just 413 votes.
I’ll repeat the same caveat here that I added to yesterday’s analysis of Senate 23: turnout is the X factor. Last week’s midterm turnout was significantly different from presidential cycle turnout. And the extraordinary gap in enthusiasm between the Republican and Democratic bases likely won’t be repeated.
Session Issues: Data Centers
Data centers were a prominent issue last election cycle – both in Republican primaries and in general election races.
Yet, there’s very little clarity about how the legislature will allay voter concerns on the issue. Legislative leaders have avoided specifics…
· Speaker Alex Riley expects statewide rules to be on the agenda. The incoming speaker told the Springfield Daily Citizen that most lawmakers seem interested in a “general” statewide framework that leaves cities and counties free to decide whether to allow data centers.
· House Floor Leader Darin Chappell is skeptical of new statewide standards. Asked whether Missouri should set construction and operating standards, the incoming House floor leader said, “I’m not sure that we should.”
· Senate Floor Leader Nick Schroer wants targeted regulation and opposes a blanket ban. The incoming Senate floor leader told Mark Reardon that lawmakers should first define which facilities they’re regulating, pointing to existing data centers used by hospitals and businesses. He singled out electricity use, tax abatements and what happens if a developer leaves an obsolete facility behind.
Meanwhile, there are powerful interests that would push back against any regulations that are too burdensome…
· Governor Mike Kehoe wants Missouri to land these projects. He promoted the Google and Amazon investments and says local officials should have the final say on siting.
· Similarly, chambers of commerce see data centers as a key industry for future growth.
· Organized labor and building trades groups back data centers as their construction generates hundreds of jobs.
Still, it’s hard to imagine there won’t be some push for regulations. Republicans in particular, as the party in power, would be playing a dangerous game if they ignore the voters on the issue…
· All three Democrats who flipped St. Charles County House seats want tougher conditions on data centers.
· Democrat Matt Vitale, who beat Brad Christ, supports a pause in St. Louis County while stronger rules are developed.
Beer & Budget: Haug Part II
The latest Beer & Budget episode features the second half of Andy Foley and Erin Schrimpf’s interview with former budget director Dan Haug. See it here.
A few key nuggets…
· Governors are hands-on players with the budget. I don't think people realize this, but the governors go through and make a decision on every line item. Like, I put that all in front of them and say, "Okay, here's what we recommend and are you good with that?" And so every new decision item, every core cut is put in front of the governor and they all look at them and that's very time consuming and it's not always the most fun part of the job for them, but they all do it.
· The big pots of GR will have to be cut. General revenue, you spend it in K through 12, higher ed, corrections, mental health, health, and social services. Those are the big areas… you could take all the rest of the GR and the budget and probably not solve the problem… so, you know, those are the areas that are probably going to see the more significant reductions, but I think everybody will see something.
· Senate Democrats are getting an experienced budget negotiator in Betsy Fogle. I don't know if I can say this, but she was a pain in my ass, too. But in a in a good way. I mean, in in an appropriate way. She asked the hard questions, which is what she should do.
Red Flag Laws and Mental Health
A new working paper (Beyond Firearm Removal: Red Flag Laws and Mental Health Outcomes) studied the use of red-flag-law across all 50 states and found that states filing more extreme-risk protection petitions also reported less depression and binge drinking, especially among younger adults.
Why It Matters
Missouri opponents have argued that the state should address mental health instead of adopting red-flag laws. This paper’s interesting contribution is that those may not be competing approaches: a red-flag proceeding can be one doorway into mental health intervention.
New LLC
Embrace Aging Missouri LLC was formed. Its registered agent is Sarah Grace Schlemeier.
According to its filing, its mission statement: “Embrace Aging Missouri stands to serve as the citizen’s guide to long term care and rally members to take action on behalf of those in need of the acute medical care. We are a coalition made up of those who care about our aging population such as caregivers, advocates, and volunteers.”
eMailbag on Childcare
Unfortunately Missouri’s business leaders have seen enough from the general assembly over the past 5+ years of championing the childcare tax credit proposal to understand the message loud and clear – leadership in Jefferson City is not willing to prioritize policy that business leaders, employees, and childcare providers know will have a positive impact on the current childcare crisis. Instead of making progress on issues by executing on tangible solutions, Missouri’s general assembly would rather make political signals out of good policy.
Help Wanted
Department of Elementary and Secondary Education seeks Chief Counsel. Serve as primary department legal contact for all legal matters related to and coming before to the State Board of Education; Coordinate the Department’s legal response on all matters, and serve as liaison to the Office of the Attorney General; Provide legal support in the form of memos, trainings, presentations, research, and other assistance as requested to members of the State Board, Commissioner of Education, Deputy Commissioners of Education, as well as for agency staff reporting to these positions; Provide legal advice on personnel matters, internal complaints, investigations…; Address and respond, or assist in preparing responses to constituent, legislative, and other questions regarding the Department… Salary: $127,008
Lobbyist Registrations
Nexus Group deleted KidSmart, Rivian Automotive, LLC, SparkWheel, and Vantage Group (US) Ltd.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $15,000 from Charter Communications.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Comcast Financial Agency Corporation (Philadelphia, PA).
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Matt Hill.