Senate 11: Another Dem Target?
If Dems can repeat their 2026 margins in 2028, Senate 11 will be another potential target. Incumbent Republican Sen. Joe Nicola defeated Robert Sauls in 2024 by 3,328 votes, or 4.7 points. But Democrats now hold all three House districts situated entirely within his Senate district.
I’ll repeat what I’ve been writing this whole week with regard to potential 2028 battlegrounds: there’s very little clarity on whether 2028 will follow 2026 in terms of turnout and voter enthusiasm.
Across HD20, 21 and 29, Democratic candidates received 2,878 fewer votes in 2026 than in 2024 while Republicans received 8,659 fewer. Democrats retained about 87% of their presidential-year vote total, compared with 62% for Republicans. Candidate changes and vote switching also affect those figures, so they don’t isolate turnout.
Third-Floor Real Estate
Senate Minority Leader Stephen Webber won’t be moving into the office traditionally occupied by that post on the third floor of the Capitol. Outgoing Minority Leader Doug Beck has opted to hang on to the spacious office.
Room 333 is just off the Senate floor and big enough for the Democratic Caucus to meet privately. But with Beck staying put, Webber is moving to Room 334, Sen. Jamie Burger’s old office.
No ‘Bad Luck’ Insurance Hikes?
The Department of Commerce and Insurance has proposed barring auto insurers from raising drivers’ premiums because of accidents they didn’t cause. That includes damage from weather, animals or flying gravel. Insurers would also have to justify their rates and pricing formulas with actuarial data.
If adopted, the rule would apply to policies issued or renewed starting January 1, 2028. A public hearing is scheduled for December 22. See the proposed rule here.
ABNB Podcast
In the latest episode of the Missouri School Boards’ Association’s Always Board Never Boring podcast, Caitlin Whaley and Linda Quinley talked school funding and the fights ahead in Jefferson City. I think it’s a preview of the coming education debates next year.
· Impact of property-tax restrictions:“I don’t find it to be a compelling argument personally when they say they want to suppress the ability of local districts to raise revenue through property taxes. It’s like, okay, but that means you’re going to have to pick up the tab in Jefferson City because that’s not that we don’t spend a lot of money on education, but relative to other states and how much education costs, the state picks up a small portion of it.”
· Concern over unfunded mandates: “The increases we’ve not funded this year and are probably not funding next year. Those are new requirements that the legislature passed. Those are changes in the law that the legislature has passed in the last two to three years specifically that’s causing these increases. And so it’s not administrations, it’s not districts saying, ‘Hey, we need more money. Give us more money.’ It’s literally the legislature passed a law. They were shown how much it was going to cost to pass the law in a fiscal note. And then they’re like, ‘No, no, no. We’re not going to fund the law we literally just passed.’”
· Public-school advocates see the Amendment 5 fight as evidence of their political strength. “It was public ed leaders and school board members and supporters who really got the word out about concern about the way A5 was written.”
Death Penalty Support Wanes
New Gallup polling being passed around shows that support for the death penalty has ebbed recently…
Many Democrats have been opposed to the death penalty for decades, often citing the racial disparities in how the punishment is applied. Lately, though, there have been forays from Republicans to end Missouri’s death penalty. Some have religious objections to the practice. And others just don’t trust the government enough to give it such power.
· Last session’s HB 2153, sponsored by Republican Rep. Jim Murphy, died in the House Corrections and Public Institutions Committee with a 5–5 vote.
· Back in 2023, Republican Rep. Tony Lovasco proposed an amendment on the House floor to the Corrections budget that would have barred the department from spending money on execution drugs. It was defeated 63–87, but garnered support from 19 Republicans.
Axios: MO GOPers As Potential Dem Allies
Axios today lists Missouri’s Josh Hawley and Eric Schmitt as senators willing to work across party lines. Read it here.
Senate Democrats are on track to need only four GOP votes to break filibusters next Congress. They could find those votes from a bloc of GOP senators with a shared appetite for taking on corporate power. Enter Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Jim Banks (R-Ind.), Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) and Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.). Each has already worked with Democrats, and their votes could put legislation over the top.
Lobbyist Registrations
Philip Pulliam added Bank of America Corporation.
$5K+ Contributions
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri (pro-Bean) - $50,000 from MCR PAC.
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri - $15,000 from Ameren Missouri Company.
Show Me Growth PAC (pro-David Gregory) - $7,500 from Cellular Systems & Signage (Millsboro, DE).
KERI PAC (pro-Ingle) - $25,000 from UAW V PAC (Detroit, MI).
Protect Freedom and Democracy - $150,000 from Stop the Ban.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $14,550 from Drury Displays Inc.
Project 50 PAC MO - $8,000 from Project 50 (Federal) (Chicago, IL).
ABC Political Action Committee - $5,500 from Tad Johnson (Columbus, KS).
Quad County Emergency Services PAC - $13,484 from Lincoln County Professional EMS Association.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Rep. Ray Reed, Jessica Seitz, James Owen, Melissa Panettiere, John Sauer, and J.C. Kuessner.