The Christ Question
One of the most heavily contested races this cycle is House 96, where Rep. Brad Christ is running for his third term. Between candidate committees, their PACs, and third parties, over $1 million has been spent.
At best, it’s a pink district. But Christ has always run well ahead of other Republicans, making his races until this point low-drama affairs.
However, high prices, legislative ballot flops, and an energized Democratic base have given Dems optimism this year could be different.
The race is significant because Christ is considered the front-runner to be the next House Floor Leader, and that amounts to being a de facto speaker-in-waiting.
If Christ were to lose, several observers have told me there’s a potential free-for-all for that spot.
Obviously, Rep. Jeff Myers would be the favorite. He’s running against Christ for the position and has a solid base of support. But others have also been floated as people game out that scenario…
· Speaker Pro Tem Chad Perkins as a term-limited “caretaker” floor leader.
· Rep. Dane Diehl who is well-liked, has important donor relationships, and enjoys wide-ranging respect in the caucus.
· Rep. Wendy Hausman who has been floated for leadership positions before.
Readers Pick’em Contest
It’s time for the Pick’em contest. This is a tough year. I’ll announce the GURU OF THE YEAR on Wednesday morning – whoever correctly calls the most races. All entries must be sent by email (no texts, only email) to dave@moscout.com by midnight tonight. Good luck!
1. Amendment 3 – pass or fail
2. Senate 8 – Patterson (R) or Ingle (D).
3. Senate 30 – Stinnett (R) or Fogle (D).
4. Senate 34 – Jones (R) or Barnes (D).
5. House 16 – Brown (R) or Kinate (D).
6. House 94 – Murphy (R) or Summers (D).
7. House 96 – Christ (R) or Vitale (D).
8. House 101 – Keathley (R) or Lentz (D).
9. House 106 – Wilson (R) or Kelly (D).
10. House 133 – Angelo (R) or Zach (D).
TIE-BREAKER: % voting Yes on Amendment 6
24-Hour Expenditure Reports
PACs must file a disclosure report within 24 hours each time they spend more than $250 during the final 11 days of an election.
· Missouri Senate Campaign Committee spent $45,000 opposing Democrat Shereka Barnes in Senate 34.
· Will of the People PAC spent $38,200 in late expenditures in Senate 8, and House Districts 30, 96, 101, 104, 105 and 106.
· HRCC’s Citizens for Better Government spent $10,106 on last-minute texting in House Districts 30, 35, 56, 60, 69, 89, 92, 94, 95, 96, 98, 104, 105, 107, 110, 132, 135 and 136.
Chat Guru
Playing around with ChatGPT over the weekend, it produced this model based on some guesses, assumptions, and inputs I gave it. One big assumption: Democrats gain 6 percentage points of the two-party vote versus 2024. So a 60% Republican–40% Democratic district becomes 54% Republican–46% Democratic, before candidate and fundraising adjustments.
· It says Dems will pick up 9 seats in the House.
News From the Truck
Scott Faughn spent last week traveling the state interviewing folks in his truck. There’s a fair amount of small talk and banter, but I went through and pulled out the newsy items…
· Sen. Joe Nicola said he will hold up the Missouri Senate if lawmakers don’t address his property-assessment concerns. Also, he’s running for Senate Republican Caucus Chair.
· Rep. Bill Owen floated using money reserved for Capitol renovations to help close the budget hole, despite acknowledging that it would mean using one-time money for ongoing expenses.
· Sen.-elect Jim Avery said he’s backing Sen. Brad Hudson for pro tem, and Sen. Nick Schroer for floor leader. But he left open the idea of becoming a compromise floor leader candidate. Avery said he doesn’t want a chairmanship or vice chairmanship so that leadership won’t have any leverage over him.
· Rep. Scott Cupps is considering a 2028 run for term-limited Sen. Mike Moon’s Senate 29 seat.
· Congressman Emanuel Cleaver said he’s preparing an agenda in case he becomes chairman of the Housing and Insurance Subcommittee.
· Congressman Wesley Bell said Trump administration officials have recently begun calling Democrats to establish relationships because they expect Democrats to capture the House.
Condolences
To Jeremy LaFaver on the passing of his mother, Carol Ledbetter LaFaver.
From the obituary: From a young age Carol was passionate about social justice and civic engagement. In the 1960s, she and John LaFaver, her then-husband and future father of her children, headed to Mississippi to help register people to vote. It was a story her children would hear many times growing up, and one that reflected the principles by which she lived…
Carol was never one to accept “that’s just the way it is.” When the Montana High School Association moved to eliminate gymnastics, she organized a large demonstration against it, rallying her daughter, Amy, other parents, and athletes to the cause. Her children never forgot the lesson of that day: that one determined person, even when standing up to those in authority, could make a difference simply by having the courage to say “No. It doesn’t have to be like this.”
No matter where life took her, Carol was civically engaged in the fullest sense. She volunteered for nearly every major Democratic presidential campaign dating back to the Kennedys, championed women seeking public office, rolled up her sleeves for her son’s political campaigns, and enthusiastically supported her daughter’s work in the nonprofit world, most recently with Polar Bears International.
A private service will be held at a later date. In lieu of flowers, she asked that you go vote. And after that, donations in her memory can be made to Crossroads Academy in Kansas City or to Polar Bears International polarbearsinternational.org.
Measuring Impact by Food or Feedback
A new policy paper (Measuring What Matters: Bringing Results-Based Accountability to U.S. Charitable Food Networks) argues that America’s food banks and pantries largely measure pounds distributed and people served, but not whether recipients receive useful food when they need it or whether the assistance reduces hardship. It proposes adding participant feedback, service-quality measures and limited food-security tracking, scaled to the capacities of different food pantries.
In Missouri, DSS itself lists pounds of food distributed as its Food Distribution Program’s “impact” measure – meaning Missouri’s public reporting illustrates exactly the measurement gap the paper identifies. But Missouri’s TEFAP manual also says recordkeeping has deliberately been kept minimal because the system relies heavily on volunteers. So the policy question is whether better measurement can occur without overwhelming small pantries in paperwork.
On the Move
Press release: University of Missouri President Mun Choi has named Ashwani Monga as chancellor of the University of Missouri–St. Louis, effective Jan. 1, 2027. Monga currently serves as the executive vice chancellor and chief academic officer at the University System of Georgia (USG).
Lobbyist Registrations
Matthew Griese added Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese of Kansas City, and Catholic Charities of Central and Northern Missouri.
Shanon Hawk added American Orthotic and Prosthetic Association.
Marissa Ruyle added The Gordian Group, Inc.
$5K+ Contributions
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $14,500 from 816 PAC.
Friends of Tim Bennett - $6,500 from Plumbers and Pipefitters Local 562.
Heartland Action PAC - $25,000 from Drury Development Corp.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Peggy McGaugh, Shane Kinne, and Joe Bruns.