Election Night Cheat Sheet
Download a printable “Election Night Cheat Sheet” here.
Where We Are: 24 GOP – 10 Dems in the Senate and 111 GOP – 52 Dems in the House.
MOScout prediction: Democrats +2 Senate, +7 House. Anything larger is a very good night for Democrats. Anything smaller should be considered a good night for Republicans, relative to these expectations.
Most Likely to Flip – Senate 2022 Result
Senate 8 – JP vs Ingle R +11.6
Senate 30 – Stinnett vs Fogle R +15.1
Senate 34 – Jones vs Barnes R +18.2
Most Likely to Flip – House 2024 Result
House 12 – Hickey vs Steele R +0.9
House 16 – Brown vs Kinate R +11.4
House 17 – Allen vs Hoisington R +3.7
House 30 – Martin vs Grover R +9.0
House 94 – Murphy vs Summers R +12.7
House 96 – Christ vs Vitale R +10.5
House 100 – Oehlerking vs Perkins R +0.7
House 101 – Keathley vs Lentz R +9.1
House 104 – Violet vs Murray R +9.8
House 105 – Wellenkamp vs Clayton R +5.8
House 106 – Wilson vs Kelly R +10.6
House 133 – Angelo vs Zach R +12.2
Storylines
· Senate leadership race – Folks tend to think these more moderate Republicans (JP and Stinnett) would end up in Bean’s column in the pro tem race.
· Kehoe fallout – If Republicans have a bad night (lose a couple Senate seats, double-digit House seats, and A3), Kehoe, as head of the party, will have to take some blame.
· More conservative House GOP – Republicans are almost guaranteed to lose some seats. And the ones they lose will be purple. That means the House Republican Caucus will likely be more conservative after tonight than before. In other words, don’t look for a “kinder, gentler” GOP next year.
· Amendment 3 – Everyone predicts “forever war.” But I think we’ll get a reprieve for a bit after this election. If voters reject the pro-life position for a second time, there will be soul-searching and maybe even a shake-up at MRL. If it passes, pro-choicers will need to reassess before mounting another multi-million-dollar campaign.
· Amendment 6 – If this passes, labor could muscle through a bunch of strong economic laws. At the end of the night, A6 could hamstring the Republican majority more than losing several legislators.
· VLTs – J&J Ventures is behind Republicans in Senate 8 and 30 while PENN has supported the Dems, as well as Jones in Senate 34.
· Eyes on House 96 – If Rep. Brad Christ loses, it could disrupt House leadership succession plans. He’s the front-runner to be the next floor leader. And floor leaders often become speakers.
Pick’em Predictions
Thanks to the 29 brave souls who dared to enter the Pick’em Contest. Here’s how those guesses fell…
A3: Fail 17, Pass 12
Senate 8: Ingle 16, Patterson 13
Senate 30: Fogle 28, Stinnett 1
Senate 34: Jones 25, Barnes 4
House 16: Brown 17, Kinate 12
House 94: Summers 18, Murphy 11
House 96: Vitale 15, Christ 14
House 101: Lentz 16, Keathley 13
House 106: Wilson 17, Kelly 12
House 133: Zach 25, Angelo 4
The tie-breaker guesses (Yes for A6) ranged from 37% to 80%.
MOVERS R.I.P.
The Office of Administration announced Monday that it is reducing the scope of MOVERS, preserving the pieces that work and developing a new roadmap “toward a new system.”
Translation: After spending at least $135.7 million, Missouri is starting over.
The warning signs have been there. MOVERS was launched in 2022. By March 2025, it could not produce appropriation bills and delayed the state budget. Senate Appropriations Chairman Lincoln Hough was a vocal critic. House Budget Chairman Dirk Deaton called it “a step backwards.”
· Monday’s release – one day before Election Day, giving it every appearance of an attempt to bury bad news – does not say what is being abandoned, what remains owed or how much the next attempt will cost.
Revenue Sags
October state revenues were off 2.48% compared to October 2025. That brings the fiscal-year-to-date number to up 2.37%.
Missouri’s FY 2027 consensus revenue estimate is $13.65 billion in net general revenue – a projected 3.8% increase over the revised FY 2026 estimate.
If November is also below consensus, it might get revised downward. That would be another chilly piece of news as the legislature reconvenes in January and has to wrestle with the budget.
MRGA Hires Gill
Press release: The Midwest Retail & Grocery Alliance (MRGA) announced that Gill Policy Group, LLC will serve as its Missouri lobbyist, effective November 1, 2026. The firm, led by Principal Ryan G. Gill, will represent MRGA and its members before the Missouri General Assembly, the executive branch and state agencies.
Non-Committee Expenditures
· AFL-CIO: $46,432. Paid for fliers and mail from October 14–21, opposing Prop A.
· CatholicVote.org Education Fund: $60,000. Paid Mezzo Consulting on October 28 for digital advertising supporting Amendment 3.
· PROMO: $23,238. Spending from September 30–October 27 for staff time, walk cards and direct mail, supporting Betsy Fogle, Jeremy Dean, Keri Ingle and Matt Vitale; and opposing Prop A, A3, Brad Christ, Jon Patterson and Jerry Angelo.
Yikers
I’m one of those people who scrolls through restaurant health reviews. This is a new one…
ECONO LODGE MOTEL FE-26-0528 1926 JEFFERSON ST: OBSERVED: brown recluse spider present in triple sink; CORRECTED ON SITE: killed while present…
Lobbyist Registrations
Tom Dempsey and Dave Berry added St. Charles City-County Library District.
Heath Clarkston, Michael Henderson, and Doug Nelson added Missouri Association of Prosecuting Attorney, InSite Health, and Cicero Action; and deleted Missouri Association of Cosmetology Schools, American Hotel & Lodging Association, SAP Concur Technologies Inc., and Azova, Inc.
Jay Reichard added Stages St. Louis
Jay Reichard and Jennifer Monheiser added Protect Our Pastime.
Will Marrs added Missouri Society of Professional Engineers.
Thomas Robbins and Caleb Rowden added JS Multiples, LLC
Danny Pfeifer, Rebecca Lohmann, Alex Eaton, Greg Porter, Todd Richardson, and David Willis added Digital Therapeutics, Inc.
Todd Richardson and Rebecca Lohmann added Pharmaceutical Care Management Association (PCMA); and deleted Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals Inc, and Boehringer Ingelheim Animal Health USA Inc.
Mark Bruns deleted Capstone and CaseX.
Noah Reandeau deleted Kids Read Now, Inc.
$5K+ Contributions
Stop the Ban - $40,000 from Planned Parenthood Great Plains (Overland Park, KS).
Vote Yes on Amendment 6 - $50,000 from Missouri AFL-CIO.
Vote Yes on Amendment 6 - $25,000 from UFCW Active Ballot Club-Missouri Federal Committee (Washington, DC).
American Promise PAC (pro-Malek) - $9,500 from Phuyal Brothers, LLC.
American Promise PAC - $5,600 from Susan Phuyal.
Respect MO Voters Campaign - $10,000 from Kenneth McClain.
Respect MO Voters Campaign - $15,000 from Kenneth McClain.
Operating Engineers Local 101 Political Fund - $150,000 from International Union of Operating Engineers Local 101 PAC.
Missouri Students for Life Ballot Committee - $22,659 from Students for Life of America (Fredericksburg, VA) (9/18/2026).
Missouri Students for Life Ballot Committee - $22,956 from Students for Life of America (9/28/2026).
Missouri Students for Life Ballot Committee - $13,600 from Students for Life of America (10/22/2026).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rep. Bill Allen, Clint Zweifel, Kim Cella, and Kevin McManus.