Dems Stun GOP As Blue Wave Hits MO
There was Republican blood up and down the ballot last night as voters sent a message that they were unhappy with high prices and an unresponsive incumbent party.
· Congresswoman Ann Wagner lost to Fred Wellman.
· Dems won both Missouri Senate battleground races easily, and nearly took a third.
· Republicans lost 16 seats in the Missouri House, including the defeat of 10 Republican incumbents.
· The attempt to reverse the constitutional amendment securing a right to an abortion was soundly rejected, 55% to 45%.
· The congressional redistricting map of the Republican majority was overturned.
· Voters approved a new measure to protect initiative petitions, tilting constitutional power away from the legislature.
Scoreboard
Where We Were: 24 GOP – 10 Dems in the Senate and 111 GOP – 52 Dems in the House.
Where We’ll Be January 2027: 22 GOP – 12 Dems in the Senate and 95 GOP – 68 Dems in the House.
· See the results of the races we had been watching at: https://results.moscout.com/
· One flip, House 60 where Rep. Dave Griffins is termed, wasn’t on my watch list – all the others are there.
New Legislator Contact Information
I put together a spreadsheet of contact information for new incoming legislators. These emails and phone numbers are all from public sources. Download it here.
Christ Loses
Rep. Brad Christ lost to Democrat Matt Vitale (53% - 45%), upending the House floor leader race, where Christ was the frontrunner.
Rep. Jeff Myers will be the next House floor leader. As the possibility of Christ’s defeat was considered in recent days, other names were mentioned, but I spoke to folks last night and I don’t see any serious challenge to Myers.
Rep. Chad Perkins will stay as speaker pro tem, and others, like Rep. Dane Diehl, are supporting Myers.
I had heard Rep. Darin Chappell might make a late bid, but I doubt that would amount to much as Myers seems to have it locked up.
Other Incumbents Losing
Here are the other House incumbents who lost last night (they’re all Republicans): Bill Allen, Chris Brown, Mark Fowler, Ben Keathley, Philip Oehlerking, Mike Steinmeyer, Terri Violet, Colin Wellenkamp, and Travis Wilson.
And
There were plenty of scares as well…
House 44 – Rep. John Martin won with 52.5%
House 65 – Rep. Wendy Hausman won with 51.2%
House 69 – Rep. Scott Miller won with 50.2%
House 88 – Rep. Holly Jones won with 51.6%
House 89 – Rep. George Hruza won with 52.2%
House 95 – old O’Donnell seat, Republican Bob Mahacek won with 51.5%
House 103 – Rep. Dave Hinman won with 51.1%
House 107 – Rep. Mark Matthiesen won with 50.4%
House 110 – old Sparks seat, Republican Niles Stephens won with 51.1%
In other words, the night actually could have been worse for Republicans…
Dems Take Two in Senate
Dems won Senate 8 and Senate 30 in races that were not ultimately very close, and almost took Senate 34 where Democrat Shereka Barnes was enormously outspent by Republican Rep. Mike Jones. She lost by a whisker (50.4% to 49.6%).
No Clarity on Leadership Races
By my best guess on where people will land, the Senate leadership races are too close to call. I think Sen. Nick Schroer has a shot at a first-round win for floor leader, but could lose in subsequent rounds. And the pro tem race looks pretty even to me as last night took a couple of votes away from Sen. Jason Bean.
Blame Game
House Republicans will gather in Jefferson City today to caucus and hold their leadership elections. (Senate Republicans will do the same tomorrow.)
Last night there were various states of shock and finger-pointing going on. We’ll see if a consensus emerges among them…
· Denial: This was a national wave with no special meaning for Missouri Republicans.
· Kehoe: All of the ballot amendments have been losers. Dems hit affordability yes, but they also messaged Republicans as out-of-touch (A4 & A5) and not respecting the will of the voters (A3 & A6).
· House leadership: Too many bad votes.
· Mirror: If you’re holding a special session for redistricting, and complaining about the state supreme court while folks are upset about the price of hamburger, you’re part of the problem.
Remember
Most of these Republican House candidates ran from their party, touted their independence, disavowed unpopular votes and still lost.
A3 Fallout
From the pro-A3 press release… James Lawson, Campaign Manager for Her Health, Her Future. “The left poured tens of millions of dollars from out-of-state extreme leftists to defeat this amendment…”
Blaming out-of-state money is a little too convenient. The pro-life community needs to face reality. Even with the ballot candy, even with the exceptions offered, voters affirmed their desire for access to abortions. They need to acknowledge that if they’re going to make any reasonable plan for the future on this issue.
What the Auditor’s Race Means
“Scare” might be too strong of a word. But Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick – against a largely unfunded Democratic opponent – only managed a three-point win - 50.2% to 47.2% with the Libertarian candidate taking the difference.
It makes 2028 much more interesting for Democrats. While some will say the odds of another wave in 2028 are slim, it’s hard to know where two more years of Trump will land the national mood.
If Dems can target one of the weaker Republican office-holders, raise some money and develop as message, last night does seem to open the door to the possibility that they can win statewide again.
CD-2 Talk
· Lobbyist: So Republicans wanted a 7-1 map and their arrogance gave them 5-3. What a horrible failure by Kehoe forcing a special session which cost republicans a congressional seat.
· Consultant says Republicans will take it back in 2028: People in the mix to run in MO 2 in 2028… Gregg Keller, Vivek Malek, Nick Schroer, and David Wasinger.
St. Charles: Pink or Purple?
Dems made serious inroads in St. Charles last night, winning three House seats and tossing a scare into a couple more incumbents.
· Also of note: Congressman Bob Onder narrowly lost St. Charles County to his Democratic opponent. And Amendment 3 lost there as well.
Other Results
· Democrat Mark Osmack beat former Sen. Andrew Koenig in the St. Louis County Council race flipping a seat and giving the new County Executive, former Rep. Jake Zimmerman an additional Democrat on the Council
· Jefferson County stayed solid red.
· How unpopular were Republicans in Platte County? The Republican county auditor and county collector candidates lost to Independents.
· Greene County showed increasing purple signs: Senate 30, House 133 flipped, but also Congressman Eric Burlison basically tied with his Democratic opponent in there and Amendment 3 lost.
New Legislator Contact Information
I put together a spreadsheet of contact information for new incoming legislators. These emails and phone numbers are all from public sources. Download it here.
MOScout Guru: Staberg
Eric Staberg emerged with the only perfect card on all ten questions asked in this year’s Readers’ Pick’em Contest.
· Staberg is the legislative assistant to Sen.-elect Raychel Proudie.
eMailbag
I disagree that the caucus will be more conservative if the Libertarian-leaning suburban Republicans are defeated... We'll be left with rural Republicans who govern more like Democrats thirty years ago.
Belated Response to the Sunday 6: I laughed out loud at the "Freedom" chart from WaPo - how I define freedom is certainly different from the Cato Institute. Indiana, Idaho, Oklahoma are all high on "personal" freedom....until you look at the freedom for a woman to make her own medical decisions.
Cato has South Dakota as the 5th and Idaho the 6th most "free" states for medical decisions despite their near-total abortion bans. I guess medical freedom only matters if you're a man?
Lobbyist Registrations
Susan Henderson Moore and Cara Alexander added EPC Real Estate Group.
Ron Berry added JS Multiples, LLC.
Josh DeTar added Geronimo Power, LLC.
Gunnar See added Protect Our Pastime.
Mark Rhoads added Missouri Logos.
$5K+ Contributions
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $100,000 from Health Her Future Missouri.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $25,000 from Matthew Mills.
Stop the Ban - $25,000 from American Civil Liberties Union of Missouri.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Missouri Optometric Association PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Missouri Realtors PAC, Inc.
American Promise PAC (pro-Malek) - $30,000 from Milan Inc.
Freedom Incorporated – $7,500 from JCDC Truman Political Action Committee.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Amy Gunn and Tony Messenger.