Chappell Gets Floor
I didn’t see this one coming… Rep. Darin Chappell will be the next House Floor Leader. Apparently, his base was Conservative Caucus members previously backing Rep. Brad Christ – a theory that jibes with this celebratory text I received afterwards: The Missouri Freedom Caucus, through the indomitable Constitutional Scholar and Budget Guru, Rep. Darin Chappell, will now run the day to day floor agenda of the much more conservative Missouri House. This style and brand of conservatism in the House has not been seen since the 2011-2012 General Assembly when former Speaker Tim Jones served in that role. Who now happens to be the Missouri State Director for the State Freedom Caucus Network.
I’m told the first vote in the caucus was a tie and then Chappell prevailed.
· One rumor making the rounds is that Chappell’s chief of staff will be Sen. Curtis Trent. Trent lost a bitter primary over the summer. Hard feelings still exist from that war among the Sophia Shore crew now encamped on the Senate side. It could create some interesting intrabuilding tension.
What It Means
Greene County will be the epicenter of Republican House power for the next two years…
· Speaker Alex Riley
· Floor Leader Chappell
· Budget Chair Bill Owen
Today
Senate Republicans caucus today with Sens. Jason Bean and Brad Hudson running for the top spot – president pro tem – and Sens. Mike Henderson and Nick Schroer in contention for the floor leader role.
eMailbag: Election Talk
· Everything will be overanalyzed, but this is all about high gas prices (the Iranian conflict). Inflation period.
· I know that I'm a washed up former legislator but for what it's worth...l spoke with another former Republican legislator. He purposely voted for the Democratic candidates to send a message. He's still upset about Amendment 5.
· Maybe Lincoln [Hough] was right…[about] PQ-ing the map, Amendment 3, punishing senators for voting their districts and MOVERS!
· It’s amazing how many people are saying “wave year” and shrugging. You can’t ride a wave without a surfboard. This took recruiting strong candidates, elected officials like Stephen Webber sending $400K to targeted Senate races, labor investing months in field work and member contact, and interest groups cooperating on independent expenditures. If I were a GOP incumbent up in 2028, I’d be worried. Dem and progressive groups have tasted victory through cooperation, and they want more.
MNEA Cheers Election Results
In a memo, Elizabeth Zerr, Missouri NEA’s Director of Campaigns & Elections, outlines their takeaways from Tuesday night. Read the memo here.
· Missouri NEA won races across the state where union members made investments or endorsements. Our union will enter the legislative session with two NEA members in the State Senate and more members serving in the Missouri legislature than any other labor union.
· The lesson from election night is clear: the path to holding future office in swing seats and advancing to the Missouri Senate is dependent on strong support of public schools, students, and educators.
Haug: Budget Will Produce ‘Losers and Bigger Losers’
In the latest Beers & Budget episode, former budget director Dan Haug circles a date on the calendar when he says the current budget trajectory will reach a catastrophic point if budgeteers don’t do their job this session.
“This [budget] problem's going to be solved in one of two ways. Either you’re going to do it in an orderly way through the governor recommending a budget and the general assembly then tweaking… these reductions to where we’re balanced or probably sometime in FY28 around April we’ll just stop paying people. All the hospitals, state employees, mental health clinics just won't get paid.”
· And there’s this humdinger, when host Erin Schrimpf asks, “There’s going to be winners and losers [in the budget process]?” Haug replies: Well, I would say there’s going to be losers and bigger losers.
More CD-2 2028 Talk
There’s going to be plenty of time but just considering the talk there’s ample interest among a lot of republicans about running in CD-2 where they assume Congressman-elect Fred Wellman will be vulnerable in a non-wave year. From the inbox…
· Jamie Corley could be a contender for the R spot for CD2. She is talented and has DC experience.
· Looking at your CD2 list: Gregg Keller won’t run because he makes too much money in the private sector; Nick Schroer is telling everybody he doesn’t want to go to Congress while his kids are young; Vivek Malek would have to give up his re-election campaign to run. He may do it, but I think it’s unlikely.
· Two other names that I find intriguing. Ben Brown and Henry Elster. Ben doesn’t have a path to leadership and is young enough to think that DC is important. Henry has been a long-time supporter of Andrew Bailey and Brad Christ and would have significant financial advantages if he got in.
· Whoever sent in these names for CD2 clearly missed the takeaway from last night. All of these people are bombastic Trump acolytes who have zero chance of winning a general.
· A ton of more names emerged as potential candidates in MO2: Seth Appleton, former aide to Sam Graves, COS to Blaine Luetkemeyer and Assistant HUD Secretary, Bill Eigel, David Gregory, Tim Jones, and Peter Kinder, many are asking him to consider running since he would clear the field.
A6 Fallout
Amendment 6’s passage raises a question: Could it undo the legislature’s return of St. Louis police to state control?
The amendment protects citizen initiatives approved since 2010, including the 2012 measure establishing local police control. But its key provision protects those measures “from action by the legislature on or after the effective date of this section.” That appears to restrict future legislative changes without reversing the police takeover enacted in 2025.
Still, there might be an opening for a legal challenge. A separate provision prohibits laws weakening citizens’ direct lawmaking power and reaches legislative proposals made after January 1, 2025. Takeover opponents could argue that overturning the 2012 vote violated that protection.
Hog Watch
Falling demand is putting pressure on hog prices as financially squeezed consumers are choosing cheaper chicken instead of pork…
Appeals Panel
Press release: The Appellate Judicial Commission has submitted its panel of nominees to fill the vacancy on the Missouri Court of Appeals, Western District… the nominees are Adam L. Caine, Sarah A. Castle, and J. Benton Hurst.
FYI: J. Benton Hurst is the husband of Kenzie Hurst, one of Judge Zel Fischer’s daughters. Hurst (who goes by Ben) is a former Graves Garrett attorney, current Assistant US Attorney, and the son of Blake Hurst, former president of the Missouri Farm Bureau.
· In the words of one MOScouter: “Small world.”
Lobbyist Registrations
Bardgett & Associates added Alynea Inc and Harris-Stowe State University; and deleted Innocence Project, National Association for Housing Revitalization, Centered Partners, and The Waverly Group, Inc.
Ginger Steinmetz added American Orthotic and Prosthetic Association; and deleted County Commissioners Association of Missouri.
Noel Torpey added Jenny Kim and Protect Our Pastime.
Dustin Backes deleted Pharmaceutical Care Management Association (PCMA).
$5K+ Contributions
Vote Yes on Amendment 6 - $10,000 from The Union Labor Life Insurance Company (Bethesda, MD).
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Cigna Holding Company (Washington, DC).
MO Republican Party - $25,000 from Growth and Opportunity PAC.
Lowery PAC - $10,000 from Gehrinteed Roofing and Construction LLC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Aaron Jeffries, Brad Ketcher, and Becky Willard.
MOScout Schedule
I’ll be off this weekend.