MOScout Daily Update: Internal Polls in Senate 6, 18, & 28 - Eigel Ad - Blue Explains - Stigall Ad and more…
Exclusive: Internal Polling Shows Early Lead for ‘Sophia’ Candidates
Internal polls from MO Maverick Strategies have three of their candidates with early leads in their Republicans Senate primaries. Note: be aware these are all relatively small samples (it’s not easy to get a big sample size in Senate races) which means margins of error greater than +/- 5%.
· Senate 6: A polling memo shows Ike Skelton starts with 21% to Rudy Veit’s 10% and Jake Vogel’s 9% with 44% undecided.
· Senate 18: A polling memo has Dusty Blue at 23% to Greg Sharpe’s 18% and Ed Lewis’ 14%.
· Senate 28: A polling snapshot gives Sam Alexander leads with 29% to Brad Pollitt’s 14% and Chuck Lentz’ 6%. 50% undecided.
MO Maverick Strategies was founded by Sophia Shore, who ran Sen. Jill Carter’s successful insurgent campaign against incumbent Bill White in 2022.
But… her candidates face stiff attacks that will likely get harsher in the next seven weeks before the primaries…
Senate 6: Poll Tests Skelton Negatives
A poll in the field in Senate 6 appears to be testing negatives against Ike Skelton…
Career politician Ike Skelton has been hit with multiple judgments for failure to pay state income taxes and a credit card debt. He even had to have his wages garnished at the Camden County Commission to pay off back income taxes.
1 = More likely
2 = Less likely
3 = No difference
Senate 18: Blue Explains
Dusty Blue responds to “the whisper campaign” about his various run-ins with the law. See it here.
· First, they’re saying I threatened to beat up a guy. That’s true. I did threaten him. Because he was bullying and putting his hands on my little brother. I will own that…
· I’m not a perfect person, but let me tell you this: I’ve never laid my hands on a woman, and I never will. I refuse to let my life be affected by the false accusations of a jealous ex-girlfriend.
Dark Money Floodgates Open
Over the weekend seven-figure checks of “dark money” flowed into campaigns for August ballot issues.
· Secure Missouri sent $1.5M to the pro-A5 committee Missouri Promise PAC.
· The Fairness Project sent $1M to the anti-A4 committee Protect Majority Rule Missouri.
What It Means
This is just the beginning. I’ll be surprised if we don’t see millions and millions more dark dollars in the next eight weeks.
CD-6: Stigall on the Air
Chris Stigall, running to succeed Congressman Sam Graves in CD-6, is on the air with his first commercial. See it here.
Hi, I'm conservative Republican Chris Stigall. You know, I've spent my career on the airwaves defending President Trump and holding politicians accountable.
Then, in footage, Trump says to Stigall: “You’re tougher than all them, right? You’ve been a great friend. Thank you very much, Chris. Appreciate it. Thank you.”
It plays like an endorsement. And so far, both campaigns are trying to show they’re on the right side of the president.
· Nathan Willett has a video online showing a compilation of all of Stigall’s criticisms of Trump.
Eigel Hits Ehlmann
Bill Eigel’s opening commercial in the St. Charles County Executive race is running on streaming channels. See it here.
It packs a double punch, hitting incumbent Steve Ehlmann as “sleepy” – a jab, I suppose, at his age – and also touts Eigel’s central campaign promise: to eliminate the personal property tax.
· There’s no mention at all of Jason Law, an indication that Eigel sees Ehlmann as his most serious rival.
12 Dead in Plane Crash
AP reports that “a plane carrying a pilot and 11 passengers on a skydiving outing in Missouri crashed in a field and was engulfed in flames Sunday, killing all aboard… The crash happened shortly after the plane took off from a local airport around 11:30 a.m., and some of the occupants’ family members witnessed the crash, said Bates County Sheriff Chad Anderson.”
· Butler Memorial Airport is located in Bates County. It’s represented by Sen. Rick Brattin and Rep. Dane Diehl.
Chamber Backs A4
The Missouri Chamber of Commerce announced that it’s “endorsing Amendment 4 and encouraging Missourians to vote ‘Yes’ on the measure in August.”
· For Missouri employers, stability and predictability matter. Businesses make investment decisions years into the future, and constitutional amendments can have lasting impacts on the state’s legal, regulatory and economic climate. Amendment 4 helps ensure that significant constitutional changes reflect broad support from Missourians rather than the spending power of outside organizations.
Remembering Greitens Contra Epshteyn
This morning Axios has a story about Boris Epshteyn, calling him “one of the most influential people in D.C. — not just because he's listening in, but because Trump listens to him as well.”
One reader recalled this is the person whom former Governor Eric Greitens accused of being involved in pay-for-play when he was unable to land an appointment in the Trump White House.
· BBC reported: Greitens was vying for an appointment as US Navy Secretary and contacted Epshteyn for assistance, CBS reported. He said Epshteyn indicated he would consider suggesting him for the position if there was financial consideration.
Inflation’s Wage Bite
A new NBER working paper argues that voters respond more to lost purchasing power than to inflation by itself. Read the paper here.
This is worth watching in Missouri’s close legislative races. If voters feel real wages have stalled under Trump, Democrats may get a boost.
New PACs
MORES PAC was formed. It’s in support of Rep. Marlene Terry.
Zizzer PAC was formed. It’s in support of former (and future?) Rep. Travis Smith.
Lobbyist Registrations
Scott Penman deleted Missouri Society of Eye Physicians & Surgeons.
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Promise PAC - $1,500,000 from Secure Missouri.
Protect Majority Rule Missouri - $1,000,000 from The Fairness Project (Washington, DC).
Protect Majority Rule Missouri - $400,000 from MOVE Action.
Protect NEMO Values PAC - $10,000 from Xcaliber International LTD LLC (Pryor, OK).
The Rowdy PAC - $30,000 from J & J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL).
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Martin Rucker.