MOScout Daily Update: Burks’ Path - Winners From MRL’s Endorsements - Harbison Flips on A5 - JP Poll and more…
First in MOScout: Burks Polling Memo
A polling memo from the Taylor Burks campaign outlines his path to victory. According to the document, the six-way Republican primary is really a two-person race between Burks and Sen. Rick Brattin. And, with “consistent positive messaging, Taylor Burks can catapult himself to the lead in this race.”
· Once RPV hear positive information about Taylor Burks — including his nearly two decades of service in the U.S. Navy Reserve, his record as Boone County Clerk saving taxpayers over half a million dollars, securing Missouri’s elections, and his support for President Trump’s agenda, this becomes an entirely different race. Burks rockets from 8% on the initial ballot to 50% on the final ballot (+42), turning a five-point deficit into a 44-point lead over Brattin.
Meanwhile
Press release: Conservative Rick Brattin announced that he has received Governor Mike Kehoe’s endorsement in the Republican primary for Missouri’s 5th Congressional District.
· “Rick Brattin is a proven conservative who always puts Missouri first, and I am proud to endorse his campaign for the 5th Congressional District.”
MRL Releases Endorsements
Missouri Right to Life released their primary election endorsements. While nearly every Republican candidate will tout themselves as “100% pro-life,” MRL’s imprimatur is considered an important signal for Republican primary voters, one that can move votes.
Here are some that stand out to me as important or interesting…
· CD-5 – Rick Brattin received the sole endorsement.
· Senate 6 – Jake Vogel received the sole endorsement.
· Senate 8 – No endorsement.
· Senate 18 – Ed Lewis received the sole endorsement.
· Senate 28 – Sam Alexander received their endorsement over Rep. Brad Pollitt.
· House 52 – Israel Baeza won the sole endorsement in the primary to replace Rep. Pollitt.
· House 59 – Vic Rackers won the sole endorsement in the primary to replace Rep. Rudy Veit.
· House 116 – Jason Green won the sole endorsement in the primary to replace Rep. Dale Wright.
· House 124 – Tony Laszacs won the sole endorsement in the primary to replace Rep. Don Mayhew.
· House 127 – Brenden Kelley won the sole endorsement in the primary to replace Rep. Ann Kelley.
· House 138 – Tom Franiak was endorsed over incumbent Rep. Burt Whaley.
· House 142 – Jeff Brown won the sole endorsement in the primary to replace Rep. Jeff Knight.
· House 145 – No endorsement here where Rep. Bryant Wolfin is running for re-election and faces a primary.
Harbison Flips on A5
In a sign that Amendment 5 may be facing some pushback from Republican voters, Rep. Tony Harbison – facing a tough re-election campaign – announced he’s changed his position. Read it here.
· Toward the end of session, I, along with many others, voted to send this to the people so they would have an opportunity to vote on it.
· After much research, my understanding is that if we support this, we will be sending it back to legislators whom we have not even elected yet. One thing I know for sure is that the main option would be to raise sales taxes on goods and services, and some of these are not even taxed at this time…
· Our working poor, seniors and veterans cannot afford higher taxes on the goods and services they depend on every day. I hear you, people of the 144th, and I will not be supporting Amendment 5.
And
This could also be read as Harbison’s anger at Americans for Prosperity working against him. He railed: Another thing that raises a red flag for me is when I see a nationwide lobbying group like AFP (Americans for Prosperity), which falls under a nonprofit structure and therefore does not have to disclose where its money comes from, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to train and pay people to knock on doors in support of Amendment 5. This tells me they must be supported by millionaires and billionaires who stand to benefit the most.
Senate 8: JP Poll
This poll from the Jon Patterson campaign is getting passed around. It was conducted by Remington Research on June 9-12 with a margin of error of +/-4.9%. It shows JP in the lead and on the right side of voters on key issues.
Initial Ballot: The candidates in the Republican primary for State Senate are Jon Patterson and Dan Stacy. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Jon Patterson: 27%
Dan Stacy: 13%
Undecided: 60%
Jon Patterson supported Governor Kehoe’s plan to phase out the state income tax. Are you more likely or less likely to support him?
More likely: 56%
Less likely: 27%
No difference: 17%
Jon Patterson has supported property tax reform to help protect homeowners from rapidly increasing property tax assessments in Jackson County. Are you more likely or less likely to support him?
More likely: 87%
Less likely: 4%
No difference: 9%
Jon Patterson has been a champion of school choice in Missouri. Are you more likely or less likely to support him?
More likely: 66%
Less likely: 13%
No difference: 21%
Senate 28: Pollitt Planting Yard Signs
Preis As Interim Ed Commish
The State Board of Education announced that Stacey Preis would serve as Interim Commissioner of Education for the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE).
· Dr. Preis brings 18 years in educational leadership, student achievement initiatives, and statewide education policy… She previously served as DESE’s Deputy Commissioner and spent six years with the Missouri General Assembly as Executive Director of the Joint Committee on Education. Dr. Preis’s most recent work includes advising clients across education, workforce development, and philanthropy as her role as Founder and President of Preis Consulting…
· The State Board is assembling an advisory committee to lead a national search to identify a permanent commissioner of education.
eMailbag: Willett’s Deceptive Edits
Oh Dave, you are passing along disinformation. The Nate video is just a bunch of deceptively edited clips to try to make it look like Stigall is anti-trump. Here’s the proof: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8f4oSdhVeM&t=9s
eMailbag on ‘Blue Explains’
When did it become ok to have a 4-page casenet and want to run for office?
Lobbyist Registrations
Christopher 'Chris' Derek Spilling added University of Missouri-St. Louis.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $20,000 from Leila Farr.
Rural Missouri Values PAC (pro-Lewis) - $25,000 from MOCS Action.
Paladin PAC - $30,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming, LLC (Effingham, IL).
Committee to Elect Kelly Thompson for Jackson County - $5,500 from Operating Engineers Local 101 PAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Congressman Jason Smith, Bill White, August Busch III, and Bob Burns.