MOScout Weekender: New Poll on A4, A5 - CFG Helps Brattin - Hallway on Best GOP Endorsement and more…
CD-5: Club For Growth Starts Pro Brattin Ads
Win It Back PAC, which is affiliated with the Club for Growth, placed a couple of big ad buys yesterday to support Rick Brattin in CD-5.
· $404K on Broadcast in Columbia – Jefferson City from 6/26 to 8/4.
· $418K on Broadcast in Kansas City from 7/8 to 8/4.
To make America great again, send a MAGA Marine to Congress. Missouri's Rick Brattin. He'll take Capitol Hill by storm to fight for President Trump's agenda. Keep illegals out of our country and hundreds of miles from a ballot box. He’ll champion the Save America Act and ban trans perverts from girls’ locker rooms. Trump conservative MAGA Marine. Missouri's Rick Brattin.
MOScout Poll
Survey conducted June 24 to June 25 by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. 560 likely 2026 Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2026 Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.9%. See the poll here.
Q1: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Governor Mike Kehoe?
Very favorable: 37%
Somewhat favorable: 16%
TOTAL FAVORABLE: 53%
Somewhat unfavorable: 8%
Very unfavorable: 23%
TOTAL UNFAVORABLE: 31%
No opinion: 16%
Q2: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of State Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick?
Very favorable: 21%
Somewhat favorable: 12%
TOTAL FAVORABLE: 33%
Somewhat unfavorable: 8%
Very unfavorable: 12%
TOTAL UNFAVORABLE: 20%
No opinion: 47%
Q3: Amendment 4 would change the rules for citizen initiative petitions to amend the Missouri Constitution. From what you know about it, would you vote yes or no on Amendment 4?
Definitely yes: 17%
Probably yes: 7%
TOTAL YES: 24%
Probably no: 10%
Definitely no: 41%
TOTAL NO: 51%
Not sure: 25%
Q4: Amendment 5 would phase out Missouri’s individual income tax based and allow the state legislature to increase the sales tax. From what you know, would you vote yes or no on Amendment 5?
Definitely yes: 31%
Probably yes: 14%
TOTAL YES: 45%
Probably no: 11%
Definitely no: 31%
TOTAL NO: 42%
Not sure: 13%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Best GOP Endorsement
I asked lobbyists, “If you could have only one endorsement in a Republican primary, it would be…” 18 replies…
RESULTS
1. Farm Bureau… 5.6%
2. Fraternal Order of Police… 55.5%
3. Mike Kehoe… 5.6%
4. Missouri Right to Life… 33.3%
Sample of Comments
· Fighting crime is high up on the platform ladder but we all know what is at the top
· If the options available, I guess it’s MRL, but given the current state of affairs, it would be the Missouri Trial Attorneys I want. Strong second goes to IAFF.
· Interesting question because the police are probably more important in the suburban races where Farm Bureau is less impactful. It is the reverse in the rural areas.
· Today, I think it’s the police. There was a time when MRL was important - that time has passed. Farm Bureau is pretty helpful, but given the state of the world, the cops are tops. Which is amusing because republicans usually don’t like the government, until you give the government a gun and handcuffs.
· Have to go with the police. They have members to work issues and folks aren’t too confused about their mission at this point. Farm Bureau is an insurance company, Right to Life are delusional trump spawn and Kehoe has sold out too many actual republican priorities
· The only truly correct answer is the cult leader himself.
· FOP all day. No prosperity without public safety.
Who Won the Week?
House Republicans – With hostilities winding down in Iran, relief at the gas pump should bring some relief to Republicans who worried that the economic environment would be a problem in some battleground legislative districts.
Bayer / MO Ag Groups – The Supreme Court delivered Bayer relief from the tsunami of state lawsuits over Roundup, and ended farmers’ fears of no longer having the pesticide to use on their fields.
Rick Brattin – Club for Growth’s near-million-dollar ad buy comes just before the post-July 4 sprint starts.
Alex Riley – His huge fundraiser last week showed that Riley starts his speakership with wide support and very high expectations…
Find a downloadable version here.
Gubby Appts
Governor Mike Kehoe announced new gubernatorial appointments…
· Logan Hobbs was reappointed as chair of the State Board of Mediation.
· Lois Brace was reappointed as chair of the Missouri State Council on the Arts.
· Karie Black and Trish Erzfeld were appointed to the Missouri State Council on the Arts.
· Jennifer Hoppenthaler was appointed as Circuit Clerk of Daviess County.
eMailbag on SNAP Penalty
The AP article about SNAP hides the real news: Illinois is paying $0 while Missouri pays $150 million more. Illinois gets this payoff because its SNAP payment error rate is above 13.33%. So despite having an error rate 6 percentage points lower than Illinois, Missouri has to pay and Illinois doesn't. Not sure how this encourages states to lower their SNAP error rates. The Alaska giveaway has turned into the Lincoln payoff.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $25,000 from Transportation Leasing Corporation International.
Conservative Justice for Missouri PAC (pro-Hanaway) - $25,000 from PMI US Corporate Services (Washington, DC).
Conservative Justice for Missouri PAC - $10,000 from McBride & Son Properties, LLC.
Conservative Justice for Missouri PAC - $10,000 from John Oconnell.
417 PAC (pro-Trent) - $10,000 from MO Majority PAC LLC.
417 PAC - $10,000 from Conservative Leaders of Missouri.
417 PAC - $10,000 from Uniting Missouri PAC.
417 PAC - $10,000 from MIC PAC.
417 PAC (pro-Trent) - $125,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Show Me Values PAC (pro-Carter) - $10,000 from Missouri and Kansas Laborers PAC.
Show Me Values PAC - $7,000 from Brown and Crouppen PC.
Values First PAC (pro-Byrnes) - $10,000 from Conservative Leaders of Missouri LLC.
Values First PAC - $10,000 from Missouri AG PAC.
Missouri Leadership PAC (pro-Riley) - $5,100 from Missouri Soybean Association.
STLCO PAC (pro-Brian Williams) - $10,000 from Missouri Senior PAC.
STLCO PAC - $10,000 from MO Majority PAC.
STLCO PAC - $10,000 from Missouri AG PAC.
STLCO PAC - $10,000 from Missouri Prospers PAC.
STLCO PAC - $10,000 from Conservative Leaders of Missouri LLC.
STLCO PAC - $10,000 from KAI Enterprises.
STLCO PAC - $10,000 from The Up Companies.
The Wonderdog PAC (pro-Kurtis Gregory) - $10,000 from Missouri Soybean Assn.
The Wonderdog PAC - $10,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of Missouri (Effingham, IL).
Protect Election Integrity - $10,000 from Missouri Farm Bureau Federation State PAC.
Protect Election Integrity - $10,000 from Missouri Farm Bureau Federation.
Protect Majority Rule Missouri - $100,000 from Ellen Schapiro and Gerald Axelbaum.
UAW Region 4 Midwest States PAC (MO) - $6,246 from Midwest State Cap Exchange (Ottawa, IL).
Missouri Senior PAC - $10,500 from US Canna Capital Missouri.
Missouri Growth PAC - $10,500 from US Canna Capital Missouri.
Seniors Count STL - $12,500 from Aging Ahead.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Ross Branson, May Scheve Reardon, and Bob Hilgemann.
Sunday: Sen. Patty Lewis, Rep. Kathy Steinhoff, and Nancy Rice.