MOScout Daily Update: Mitten Leads Butz - Hanaway for Brattin? - Rundown of Senate and House Race Finances and more…
Senate 4: Exclusive MOScout Poll
This poll was conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout from July 13-15. 355 likely 2026 Senate 4 Democratic Primary Election voters, weighted to match expected turnout demographics. The margin of error is +/-5.2% with a 95% level of confidence.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Kehoe’s job performance as Governor?
Approve: 10%
Disapprove: 80%
Not sure: 10%
Q2: Do you support or oppose Amendment 5?
Support: 8%
Oppose: 80%
Not sure: 12%
Q3: The candidates in the Democratic Primary Election for State Senate are Steve Butz and Gina Mitten. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Steve Butz: 23%
Gina Mitten: 41%
Undecided: 36%
CD-5: Hanaway for Brattin
I’m told that Attorney General Catherine Hanaway will be endorsing Sen. Rick Brattin in his congressional race. It’s a power move by Hanaway to wade into a hot Republican primary.
And
· The NRA is endorsing Brattin. While it isn’t a surprise, the NRA is a respected name with Republican primary voters, especially those in the rural portions of CD-5.
· Club for Growth’s Win it Back PAC has started a contrast ad on Taylor Burks, Brattin’s main rival. It dings Burks for wokeness during his time on the Truman State Board of Governors. See it here.
July Fundraising Numbers
SENATE REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES
Senate 6
Jake Vogel raised $366,790, spent/disbursed $67,642, and has $391,951 on hand.
· Lead the Way PAC raised $54,600, spent/disbursed $25,521, and had $61,022 on hand.
Derrick Spicer raised $31,870, spent/disbursed $33,209, and had $191,190 on hand.
· Spicer for Senate PAC raised $29,230, spent/disbursed $27,344, and had $30,450 on hand.
Ike Skelton raised $23,375, spent/disbursed $8,094, and had $15,281 on hand.
· Heart of Missouri raised $5,000, spent/disbursed $4,805, and had $185 on hand.
Lisa Thomas raised $50, spent/disbursed $117,939, and had $119,842 on hand.
· Missourians for Ethical & Transparent Government raised $60,000, spent/disbursed $32,825, and had $27,246 on hand.
Amber Buckles raised $225, spent/disbursed $16, and had $426 on hand.
Rudy Veit raised $30,364, spent/disbursed $41,869, had $282,771 on hand.
· Central Missouri Leadership PAC raised $10,000, spent/disbursed $0, and had $10,000 on hand.
State of the Race: It’s feeling like a 3-way race right now. Ike Skelton has the outsider message, but he’s taking a lot of fire and isn’t as well funded as Jake Vogel or Rudy Veit.
Senate 8
Jon Patterson raised $78,575; spent/disbursed $26,211; and had $719,471 on hand.
· Missouri Alliance PAC raised $266,503, spent/disbursed $140,534, and had $2,314,904 on hand.
Dan Stacy raised $885; spent/disbursed $3,835; and had $7,183 on hand.
State of the Race: JP looks confident as he appears to be holding the vast majority of his war chest for the November showdown with Keri Ingle.
Senate 10
Tricia Byrnes hasn’t filed her July quarter report yet.
· Values First PAC raised $53,251, spent/disbursed $4,100, and had $52,056 on hand.
Mike Deering raised $109,769; spent/disbursed $28,655; and had $109,141 on hand.
· Cut the Bull PAC raised $208,747, spent/disbursed $16,059, and had $185,639 on hand.
State of the Race: Deering had a good fundraising quarter, has pulled down big endorsements and is the favorite here.
Senate 16
Bill Hardwick raised $24,725, spent/disbursed $84,530, and had $146,042 on hand.
· Missouri Enterprise Fund raised $164,383, spent/disbursed $68,126, and had $210,497 on hand.
Philip Lohmann reported Limited Activity.
Hannah Kelly raised $24,440, spent/disbursed $43,047, and had $44,013 on hand.
· Esther PAC raised $53,500, spent/disbursed $1,850, and had $60,101 on-hand.
· Accountability PAC raised $50, spent/disbursed $0, and had $4,544 on-hand.
Don Mayhew raised $42,450, spent/disbursed $19,844, and had $51,682 on hand.
State of the Race: This is a two-way race between Hardwick and Kelly with Hardwick considered the favorite right now.
Senate 18
Dusty Blue raised $35,368, spent/disbursed $36,681, and had $94,933 on hand.
Ed Lewis raised $102,430, spent/disbursed $74,907, and had $62,652 on hand.
· Rural Missouri Values raised $63,000, spent/disbursed $21,706, and had $51,553 on hand.
Greg Sharpe raised $45,928, spent/disbursed $44,917, and had $43,633 on hand.
State of the Race: Lewis has been pulling in a lot of big checks recently, while Blue has the outsider appeal and is said to be leading in polls (we’ll see). I don’t hear much about Sharpe; his strategy seems to be stay out of the fire between the other two.
Senate 20
Lori Rook raised $25,895, spent/disbursed $61,853, and had $69,429 on hand.
Curtis Trent raised $55,512, spent/disbursed $98,318, and had $214,347 on hand.
· 417 PAC raised $297,685, spent/disbursed $182,904, and had $586,322 on-hand.
State of the Race: Trent has raised good money and spent a fair amount of it attacking Rook. Rook is another MO Maverick client making an outsider appeal, but it feels harder to do as an attorney.
Senate 28
Brad Pollitt raised $57,579, spent/disbursed $50,560, and had $171,849 on hand.
· Rocker P Brand raised $180,047, spent/disbursed $49,782, and had $240,240 on hand.
Sam Alexander raised $11,359, spent/disbursed $30,812, and had $170,076 on hand.
Chuck Lentz raised $13,797, spent/disbursed $7,444, and had $4,852 on hand.
State of the Race: This might be a true toss-up right now between Pollitt and Alexander.
Senate 32
Jill Carter raised $80,000, spent/disbursed $54,901, and had $57,862 on hand.
· Show Me Values PAC raised $242,200, spent/disbursed $29,665, and had $291,615 on hand.
Ellen Nichols raised $15,233, spent/disbursed $122,603, and had $124,234 on hand.
· Stand for Truth PAC raised $31,000, spent/disbursed $0, and had $51,050 on hand.
State of the Race: It’s hard to beat an incumbent, and Carter’s working hard so I would assume she holds, but Nichols is making this a tough one to call.
Senate 34
Mike Jones raised $88,469, spent/disbursed $49,549, and had $125,710 on hand.
· Beverly PAC raised $183,984, spent/disbursed $29,319, $283,893 on hand.
Sean Pouche raised $108,904, spent/disbursed $118,985, and had $142,033 on hand.
Ryan Gerster: no committee formed.
State of the Race: I’m with the Hallway on this which says you can’t beat the Axiom machine in northwest Missouri. That means Jones wins.
SENATE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Senate 4
Steve Butz raised $50,575, spent/disbursed $185,149, and had $49,419 on hand.
· Butz PAC raised $100,650, spent/disbursed $40,092, and had $193,123 on hand.
Gina Mitten raised $48,196, spent $41,239, and had $107,356 on hand.
· Good Hands PAC raised $0, spent/disbursed $325, and had $129 on hand.
State of the Race: Mitten is singularly focusing on the abortion issue, and Butz hasn’t found an effective way to rebut it.
Senate 14
Joe Palm raised $6,950, spent/disbursed $2,010, and had $14,261 on hand.
John Bowman raised $39,185, spent/disbursed $34,996, and had $32,333 on hand.
· Come Back PAC raised $7,350, spent/disbursed $8,617, and had $24,352 on hand.
Raychel Proudie raised $13,301, spent/disbursed $15,685, and had $44,713 on hand.
· PROUD PAC raised $36,410, spent/disbursed $1,300, and had $57,991 on hand.
Shante Duncan raised $4,890, spent/disbursed $3,592, and had $13,841 on hand.
State of the Race: You can make the case for any of the four to win. Duncan probably has the narrowest path, but depending how the vote splits, it’s anyone’s race.
COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES TO WATCH
House 12 (Mike Jones to Senate)
Wesley Willett (R): no committee formed.
Jerry Hickey (R) raised $7,561, spent/disbursed $1,218, had $6,343 on hand.
Tracey Steele (D) raised $15,907, spent/disbursed $14,936, and had $15,333 on hand.
House 16
Rep. Chris Brown raised $4,750; spent/disbursed $500; and had $44,509 on-hand.
· Kansas City Forward raised $4,000, spent/disbursed $100, and had $34,062 on-hand.
Dan Kinate (D) raised $11,281, spent/disbursed $3,447, and had $17,063 cash on-hand.
House 17
Bill Allen raised $0, spent/disbursed $2,252, and had $25,524 on-hand.
· Buck Up PAC raised $0, spent/disbursed $95, and had $6,354 cash on-hand.
Susan Hoisington (D) raised $10,501, spent/disbursed $6,267, and had $18,294 cash on-hand.
Shawna Ackerson (D) hasn’t filed yet.
House 21
Rep. Will Jobe raised $7,904, spent/disbursed $1,521, and had $12,121 on hand.
· ARC PAC raised $0, spent/disbursed $990, and had $0 on hand.
Michael Young (R) raised $6,022, spent/disbursed $2,023, and had $6,022 on hand.
House 29 (Crossley not running for re-election)
Robert Bruette (R): no committee formed.
Tedi Rowland raised $13,793, spent/disbursed $4,828, and had $8,719 cash on-hand.
House 30 (JP termed)
Phyllis Edson (R) raised $18,100, spent/disbursed $23,422, and had $2,444 on hand.
Jeff Martin (R) raised $10,588, spent/disbursed $6,854, and had $57,333 on hand.
Kevin Grover (D) raised $10,686, spent/disbursed $4,309, and had $32,533 on hand.
House 34
Charles Bisignano (R) filed an Exemption Committee.
Sean Smith (R) filed Limited Activity.
· Missourians for Common Sense PAC filed Limited Activity.
Rep. Kemp Strickler raised $22,431, spent/disbursed $7,212, and had $65,570 on hand.
· Summit Strong PAC was formed after the deadline.
House 56
Rep. Michael Davis raised $6,950, spent/disbursed $195, and had $22,722 on hand.
Staci Czar (D) raised $4,835, spent $2,966, and had $4,027 cash on-hand.
Mitch Mullvain (D): no committee formed.
House 92
Kenneth Abram (R) raised $950, spent/disbursed $1,057, and had $2,388 on hand.
Mirhad Hasanovic (R) raised $325; spent $3; and had $1,552 on hand.
Rep. Michael Burton hasn’t filed yet.
House 94 (Jim Murphy termed)
Maryellen Murphy (R) raised $12,520; spent $1,164; and had $43,528 on hand.
Cathy Summers (D) raised $15,168, spent/disbursed $1,695, and had $14,811 on hand.
House 96
Rep. Brad Christ raised $30,624; spent/disbursed $51,912; and had $201,284 on hand.
· Real Action PAC raised $81,753, spent/disbursed $27,978, and had $324,056 on hand.
Matt Vitale (D) raised $32,084, spent/disbursed $20,882, and had $24,302 on hand.
House 98
Timothy Bosch (R) raised $1,675, spent/disbursed $2,254, and had $2,567 on hand.
Rep. Jaclyn Zimmermann raised $21,972; spent $9,140; and has $27,767 on hand.
House 100
Rep. Philip Oehlerking raised $23,390, spent/disbursed $1,129, and had $59,324 on hand.
Mary Ann Perkins (D) raised $32,220, spent/disbursed $15,822, and had $29,307 on hand.
House 101
Rep. Ben Keathley raised $3,192; spent $3,707; and has $59,792 on-hand.
· Freedom Is Bold PAC filed Limited Activity ($42,743 COH in last report).
· South Asian DESI PAC raised $0, spent/disbursed $0, and had $3,145 on hand.
Paul Lentz (D) raised $1,024, spent/disbursed $393, and had $386 on hand.
Richard Smreker (D) hasn’t filed yet.
House 105
Rep. Colin Wellenkamp raised $13,900, spent/disbursed $8, and had $22,338 on hand.
· Missouri Rising PAC filed Limited Activity.
Cat Clayton (D) raised $25,314, spent/disbursed $6,693, and had $27,449 on hand.
House 132
Russ Gosselin raised $6,623, spent/disbursed $10,264, and had $7,132 on hand.
· Missouri Families First PAC raised $2,000, spent/disbursed $0, and had $2,000 on hand.
Jeremy Dean raised $5,050, spent/disbursed $3,837, and had $13,003 on hand.
House 133
Jerry Angelo (R) raised $5,591, spent/disbursed $275, had $8,500 on-hand.
Katelyn Zach (D) raised $12,257; spent/disbursed $8,598; and had $ 10,862 on-hand.
House 136
Jacey Buckles (R) raised $150, spent/disbursed $3,904, and had $1,351 on hand.
Rep. Stephanie Hein raised $24,286; spent $5,404; and has $76,771 on-hand.
· Forward 417 filed Limited Activity.
INCUMBENT HOUSE REPUBLICANS WITH PRIMARIES
House 54
Joe Plemons: no committee formed.
Rep. Brandon Phelps raised $13,560, spent/disbursed $13,807, and had $24,047 on hand.
· Missouri Dream PAC raised $25,500, spent/disbursed $400, and had $54,085 on hand.
House 56
Rep. Michael Davis raised $6,950, spent/disbursed $195, and has $22,722 on hand.
Steve Baker raised $2,549, spent/disbursed $4,584, and has $2,801 on hand.
House 61
John Grady raised $1,211, spent/disbursed $1,292, and had $533 on-hand.
Rep. Bruce Sassmann raised $0, spent/disbursed $2,052, and had $857.97 on hand.
House 64
Jason Iannantuoni raised $200, spent/disbursed $0, and had $200 on hand.
Rep. Deanna Self raised $2,870, spent/disbursed $1,830, and had $4,702 on hand.
House 106
Rep. Travis Wilson raised $16,480; spent/disbursed $28,681; and had $28,378 on hand.
Chris Sander raised $122,502, spent/disbursed $67,351, and had $107,312 on hand.
House 108
Rep. Mike Costlow hasn’t filed yet.
· Missouri Grit & Growth PAC raised $21,250; spent/disbursed $0, and had $21,250 on hand.
Max Calfo raised $6,150; spent/disbursed $4,224; and had $2,025 on hand.
House 138
Tom Franiak raised $765; spent/disbursed $876; and had $883 on hand.
Rep. Burt Whaley raised $6,550, spent/disbursed $6,017, and had $12,245 on hand.
House 139
Sandy Karnes raised $5,529, spent/disbursed $8,535, and had $35,935 on hand.
· Fight for Missouri PAC raised $0, spent/disbursed $0, and had $0 on hand.
Rep. Bob Titus raised $2,315, spent/disbursed $6,303, and had $23,881 on hand.
House 140
Rep. Jamie Ray Gragg raised $6,370, spent/disbursed $5,604, and had $7,359 on hand.
· Smoke on the Mountain PAC raised $4,000, spent/disbursed $0, and had $4,100 on hand.
Angela Romine raised $8,487, spent/disbursed $4,833, and had $3,296 on hand.
House 144
Chris Dinkins raised $11,344, spent/disbursed $1,359, and had $11,092 on hand.
· Red Hawk PAC raised $0, spent/disbursed $9, and had $499.87 on hand.
Rep. Tony Harbison raised $1,900, spent/disbursed $8,253, and had $2,241 on hand.
· Arcadia Leadership PAC raised $0, spent/disbursed $125, and had $1,974 on hand.
House 145
Rep. Bryant Wolfin raised $16,588, spent/disbursed $4,366, and had $21,159 on hand.
Scott Sattler raised $11,427, spent/disbursed $2,043, and had $10,584 on hand.
House 154
Rep. Lisa Durnell raised $9,436, spent/disbursed $9,243, and had $14,419 on hand.
Travis Smith raised $22,546, spent/disbursed $16,217, and had $6,329 on hand.
INCUMBENT HOUSE DEMOCRATS WITH PRIMARIES
House 28
Mike Sager: only active committee is a debt-service committee from last race.
Rep. Donna Barnes raised $1,650, spent/disbursed $1,550, and had $8,539 on hand.
House 66
Rep. Marlene Terry raised $9,490, spent/disbursed $2,601, and had $8,987 on hand.
Theresa Hester raised $5,150, spent/disbursed $1,062, and had $4,087 on hand.
House 68
Rep. Kem Smith raised $8,810, spent/disbursed $7,421, and had $11,369 on hand.
Janay Mosley filed Limited Activity.
House 74
Rep. Marla Smith raised $9,145, spent/disbursed $5,501, and had $18,409 on hand.
Maria Miller raised $670, spent/disbursed $507, and had $167 on hand.
House 75
Rep. Chanel Mosley hasn’t filed yet.
Chris Brown raised $1,830, spent/disbursed $850, and had $1,698 on hand.
House 83
Rep. Ray Reed raised $9,645, spent/disbursed $13,278, and had $117,589 on hand.
David Dimmitt raised $24,821, spent/disbursed $19,769, and had $24,322 on hand.
TOP 20 COH PACs
Stop the Ban - $3.6 million
Mid-America Carpenters Regional PAC - $2.3 million
Missouri Alliance PAC (pro-JP) - $2.3 million
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $2 million
Protect Majority Rule Missouri - $1.9 million
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $1.6 million
MCR PAC (Rayner) - $1.4 million
Luetkemeyer For Missouri - $1.3 million
Missouri Leadership PAC (pro-Riley) – $1.1 million
Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC - $1 million
Conservative Justice for Missouri PAC (pro-Hanaway) - $939,360
Missourians for Fair Taxation - $916,123
Tony PAC (pro-Luetkemeyer) - $894,112
RightPath PAC - $858,351
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $797,801
Missouri Voter Project - State PAC - $796,349
STLCO PAC (pro-Williams) - $781,040
IUOE Local 101 - $737,786
Pipefitters Assoc Local #533 - $728,331
Patterson For Missouri - $719,472
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Promise PAC (pro-A5) - $2,510,790 from Missouri Action.
Protect Majority Rule Missouri (anti-A4) - $500,000 from Open Society Policy Center (Washington, DC).
MCR PAC (Rayner’s PAC) - $1,000,000 from Mike Rayner.
Protect NEMO Values PAC - $10,000 from MCR PAC.
Missourians for a Responsible Budget (pro-Fitzpatrick) - $100,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Stand for Truth PAC (pro-Nichols) - $100,000 from Missouri State Medical Association.
Stand for Truth PAC - $12,000 from MO Osteopathic PAC.
Show Me Values PAC (pro-Carter) - $25,000 from Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri.
Sam Alexander for Missouri - $25,000 from Marsha Alexander.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $100,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Made in Missouri - $80,000 from MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC.
Bootheel Values PAC (pro-Burger) - $10,000 from Heavy Constructors Association.
KERI PAC - $10,000 from Taxpayers Unlimited, Inc.
Sharon Jones for Columbia - $10,000 from HOMEFRONT PAC.
Protect Freedom and Democracy - $16,183 from Missouri Jobs with Justice Voter Action.
Common Sense STL PAC - $8,000 from Common Sense STL.
Jason Maki for Platte County - $6,934 from Jason Maki.
Missouri River PAC - $15,000 from Martin Bennet.
UAW Region 4 Midwest States PAC (MO) - $6,429 from Midwest State Cap Exchange (Ottawa, IL).
Happy Birthday
Happy birthdays to Jeanette Mott Oxford, and John Sondag.