MOScout Daily Update: New Polls in Senate 6 & 8 - Butz Polling Memo Shows Tied Race - Rook Hubby in New Ad - Vice Signaling and more…
Senate 6: Exclusive MOScout Poll
This poll was conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout from July 14-16. 315 likely 2026 Senate 6 Republican Primary Election voters, weighted to match expected turnout demographics. The margin of error is +/-5.4% with a 95% level of confidence.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Kehoe’s job performance as Governor?
Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 27%
Not sure: 22%
Q2: Do you support or oppose Amendment 5?
Support: 49%
Oppose: 40%
Not sure: 11%
Q3: The candidates in the Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Jake Vogel, Derrick Spicer, Lisa Thomas, Amber Buckles, Rudy Veit and Ike Skelton. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Jake Vogel: 23%
Derrick Spicer: 12%
Lisa Thomas: 8%
Amber Buckles: 4%
Rudy Veit: 20%
Ike Skelton: 8%
Undecided: 25%
Senate 8: Exclusive MOScout Poll
This poll was conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout from July 14-16. 303 likely 2026 Senate 6 Republican Primary Election voters, weighted to match expected turnout demographics. The margin of error is +/-5.4% with a 95% level of confidence.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Kehoe’s job performance as Governor?
Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 26%
Not sure: 22%
Q2: Do you support or oppose Amendment 5?
Support: 47%
Oppose: 40%
Not sure: 13%
Q3: The candidates in the Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Jon Patterson and Dan Stacy. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Jon Patterson: 34%
Dan Stacy: 11%
Undecided: 55%
Senate 4: Polling Memo
Team Butz says their polling shows the race is tied – once voters are given balanced information. See the memo here. It was done by Public Policy Polling last week (July 10-12).
After respondents heard balanced candidate biographies along with an equal number of positive and negative statements about both candidates, the ballot test produced the following results:
Steve Butz: 30%
Gina Mitten: 34%
Undecided: 36%
Given the poll's ±4% margin of error, the four-point difference falls within the statistical margin of error, making this an effectively tied race.
For Steve Butz, the path to victory is straightforward: continue introducing himself to voters, communicate his record of delivering results for working families, public education, health care, a pro-choice voting record, and public safety, while also defining Gina Mitten's record before she has the opportunity to do it herself. That includes informing voters about her record of missing more than 900 votes while serving in the Missouri House, the delays in issuing workers' compensation decisions that ultimately led to her dismissal as an administrative law judge, her public defense of former St. Louis Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner, and her statements supporting data centers in St. Louis.
Senate 20: Rook Adds $$$, Puts Hubby on TV
In Senate 20, Lori Rook added $100,000 of her own money to her campaign war chest and released a new ad featuring her husband. See “Ryan’s Response” here.
I'm Ryan Rook, husband of Lori Rook. She's running against that guy [unflattering picture of Curtis Trent].
He's been telling a lot of lies about my wife. So, let me tell you about who she really is. My wife is an amazing Christian and mother to our three children. There is nobody, and I mean nobody, I would trust more, to fight for our God-given freedom against the woke corporations and corrupt politicians running this state into the ground. I'm asking you to vote for the actual conservative fighter in the race for state senate, my wife, Lori Rook, on August 4th.
Signaling Vice
We’ve got a crop of Senate candidates this year that have some “baggage.” In Senate 6, Jake Vogel and Ike Skelton are each drawing attack mailers from their previous run-ins with the law. In Senate 18, Dusty Blue has had to explain his record on Case.net. But these might not be sinking their candidacies.
· One politico mused to me that maybe the threshold of acceptability had changed in the age of Trump.
· One academic angle comes from a working paper, Signaling Vice: Why Looking Bad Wins Votes. It argues that owning bad behavior can be helpful if it makes a candidate seem more authentic. “Advertising one’s flaws while presenting oneself as ‘bad but authentic’ helps persuade the voters that the candidate may be flawed, but is not a hypocrite.”
Auditor Race – July Numbers
Scott Fitzpatrick raised $41,711, spent/disbursed $18,468, and had $390,646 on hand.
· Missourians for a Responsible Budget PAC raised $33,500, spent/disbursed $554, and had $384,805 on hand.
Quentin Wilson (D) raised $6,781, spent/disbursed $21,359, and had $30,851 on hand.
State of the Race: It’s hard to conjure scenario in which Fitzpatrick doesn’t cakewalk into another term.
Senate 8 and Senate 30 – July Numbers
In Senate 8, Democrat Keri Ingle, prepping for November, raised another $125,000 with limited expenditures. She’ll take on the winner of the primary between JP and Dan Stacy.
Ingle raised $59,365, spent $14,506 and had $285,297 on-hand.
· Keri PAC raised $68,400, spent $0 and had $136,462 on-hand.
In Senate 30, Reps. Melanie Stinnett (R) and Betsy Fogle (D) are poised to face off in November.
Melanie Stinnett raised $49,435, spent $19,142, and had $454,242 on-hand.
· Heart of SGF raised $168,500, spent $9,828, and had $327,763 on-hand.
Betsy Fogle raised $105,128, spent $24,489, and had $439,671 on-hand.
· Forward PAC raised $252,500, spent $0, and had $370,041 on-hand
Kehoe on Board with ‘Ratepayer Protection Pledge’
Politico's Morning Energy reported:“At least three Republican governors have signed onto Trump's framework to prevent data center energy costs from spilling over to consumers… Govs. Greg Gianforte of Montana, Mike Kehoe of Missouri and Mark Gordon of Wyoming are all on board for the Ratepayer Protection Pledge, which Trump initially rolled out in March at White House event with tech companies. Large utilities, such as Southern Co., Duke Energy and Exelon, are also expected to participate.”
· Trump's expansion of the pledge — and the new clutch of political leaders and companies joining it — underscored the political pressure that has emerged to address rising energy costs that experts say could get worse with the rollout of new data centers.
IE PAC Update
I’ve updated the list of PACs, with their most current cash on-hand totals. Find that here.
eMailbag
· On CD-5: Hanaway endorsing Brattin is not a surprise or a power move. Brattin is working with Axiom & so is she. She endorsed Stigall for Congress less than a month after Graves announced he wasn't running; before that race had even developed. Has she ever endorsed against an Axiom client?
· On Senate 16: I don’t believe it’s a two-way race between Hardwick and Kelly. Don Mayhew is hitting the doors harder than both.
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Promise PAC (pro-A5) - $750,000 from American Policy Coalition (Columbus, OH).
Missouri Promise PAC - $200,000 from Revitalization Project (Springfield, VA).
Lori Rook for Missouri - $100,000 from Lori Rook.
Friends of Dr Ellen Nichols - $100,000 from Margaret Nichols.
Missourians for Ethical & Transparent Government (pro-Thomas) - $10,000 from Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC.
Made in Missouri - $10,000 from Missouri and Kansas Laborers’ Pac 951.
Missouri Leadership Forum - $25,000 from D&T Steward.
Missouri First - $15,000 from Altria Client Services LLC (Richmond, VA).
Put Missouri First - $17,985 from Republican National Committee (Washington, DC).
Living Well PAC - $50,000 from MoANA.
Missouri House Democrats Action Fund - $10,000 from Enterprise Holdings, Inc. PAC.
Common Sense STL PAC - $50,000 from Robert Clark.
Stacy Lake for Jackson County - $10,000 from Stacy Lake.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to David Klarich, Jasmine Lane, Jeff Rainford, Guy Black, Jeffrey Earl, Adam Schwadron, and Richard Callow.