MOScout Weekender - New Polls for Senate 10 & 14 - Hallway on Data Center Debate - WWTW and more…
Senate 10: Exclusive MOScout Poll
This poll was conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout from July 15-17. 309 likely 2026 Senate 10 Republican Primary Election voters, weighted to match expected turnout demographics. The margin of error is +/-5.4% with a 95% level of confidence.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Kehoe’s job performance as Governor?
Approve: 58%
Disapprove: 25%
Not sure: 17%
Q2: Do you support or oppose Amendment 5?
Support: 46%
Oppose: 32%
Not sure: 22%
Q3: The candidates in the Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Tricia Byrnes and Mike Deering. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Tricia Byrnes: 29%
Mike Deering: 33%
Undecided: 38%
Senate 14: Exclusive MOScout Poll
This poll was conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout from July 14-17. 313 likely 2026 Senate 14 Democratic Primary Election voters, weighted to match expected turnout demographics. The margin of error is +/-5.34% with a 95% level of confidence.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Kehoe’s job performance as Governor?
Approve: 9%
Disapprove: 73%
Not sure: 18%
Q2: Do you support or oppose Amendment 5?
Support: 15%
Oppose: 63%
Not sure: 22%
Q3: The candidates in the Democratic Primary Election for State Senate are John Bowman, Shante Duncan, Joe Palm and Raychel Proudie. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
John Bowman: 8%
Shante Duncan: 4%
Joe Palm: 3%
Raychel Proudie: 25%
Undecided: 60%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Data Center Debate
I asked lobbyists, “What’s the future of the data center debate?” 23 replies…
RESULTS
1. There will be a regulatory framework passed by the state legislature… 8.7%
2. It will remain the purview of local governments… 34.8%
3. It depends how the Senate primaries go… 56.5%
Sample of Comments
· Guessing there will be 50 bills filed from insane bans to local control. If anything passes it will be state reg on health and environment and local control of zoning. Stupid discussion- Let communities decide if they want it.
· The legislators pushing for a data center ban are among the least effective in the building, and they don't compromise. Nothing will get done in the short term.
· The self-styled patriots in tin foil hats, who claim to hate China, are parroting Chinese misinformation. That's what happens when low information voters vote en masse for low information legislators.
· Lots of bills filed to curb or regulate data centers but passing a bill is hard. Sure there is opposition, there is also support.
· There will be a framework. But depending on the senate primaries, some people could want too much and that could kill it. It’s similar to the solar situation. Eventually the anti folks will realize taxing them to death is politically infeasible and a reasonable framework will be established. Feels optimistic it can get done in one year. We’ll see….
· The pro A5 consultants, who also represent the data center coalition, have further poisoned the well on data centers.
· I think it depends on how greedy the antagonists become. There is room for reasonable guard rails. But if the legislators that want to kill, good projects are unreasonable, everything will die.
· Local control is an important piece of the puzzle. The state will have to move slow and give the issue a chance to settle and the facts become more well vetted.
· The anti-data center crowd will continue producing crappy Claude-made flyers about hating the data centers that fuel Claude, but won’t be able to pass anything.
· This is the economic development boom sitting on Missouri's doorstep. For 25 years republicans have tried almost everything to attract business to the state, and now some of those same people are rushing to shut the doors. There may be an AI bubble, but it isn't a fad. It's computing power and it's already transformational. If you don't understand that, you are falling behind and there will be a point in the not distant future where businesses/sectors/associations will be unable to catch up and stay competitive with early adopters.
· If Sophie Shore has a good night, then a lot of counties and munis will be starved of revenue for the next decade.
Who Won the Week?
Anti-A5ers – Early MOScout polling in state senate primaries shows lukewarm support from Republican voters and overwhelming disapproval from Democratic voters. That looks like a recipe for defeat.
Sophia’s Slate – They’ve found an ample supply of money from Missouri trial attorneys – ever on the hunt for Senate allies. Money + Message is usually a winning combo.
Joe Palm – He trails in the latest MOScout poll, but he’s picked up support from the important Walton machine, and there’s still 60% undecided.
St. Louis – The signing of HB 3231 gives developers certainty in the face of tight budget years ahead as the economic development tax credits stand outside the appropriations process
Find a downloadable version here.
Gubby Appts
Governor Mike Kehoe made three appointments…
· Patrick Brown, of St. Louis, was appointed to the Bi-State Development Agency of the Missouri-Illinois Metropolitan District.
· James Greer, of Columbia, was reappointed to the Petroleum Storage Tank Insurance Fund.
· John Ruth, of Jefferson City, was appointed to the Public School Retirement System of Missouri Board of Trustees.
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Promise PAC (pro-A5) - $200,000 from American Advancement Inc (Hyattsville, MD).
Missouri Promise PAC - $200,000 from Revitalization Project (Springfield, VA).
Protect Majority Rule Missouri (anti-A4) - $500,000 from Unite America Inc (Denver, CO).
We Are Missouri (anti-A4) - $250,000 from International Union of Operating Engineers Local 513.
We Are Missouri - $15,775 from BAC Administrative District of Eastern Missouri.
Stop the Ban (anti-A3) - $200,000 from Gerald Axelbaum and Ellen Schapiro.
Stop the Ban - $10,000 from Diane Levine.
AFC Victory Fund - $425,000 from AFC Victory Fund (Mountain Brook, AL).
AFC Victory Fund - $45,150 from American Federation for Children, Inc. (Columbia, MD).
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $15,000 from Sterling Bancshares Inc.
Conservative Justice for Missouri PAC (pro-Hanaway) - $25,000 from Altria Client Services LLC (Richmond, VA).
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri (pro-Bean) - $50,000 from J & J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL).
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri - $15,000 from Sterling Bancshares Inc.
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri - $15,000 from Robertson Contractor Inc.
Missouri Enterprise Fund (pro-Hardwick) - $50,000 from J & J Ventures Gaming of Missouri, LLC (Effingham, IL).
Pike Lincoln Values Fund (pro-Perkins) - $25,000 from J & J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL).
Pike Lincoln Values Fund - $10,000 from FCA PAC.
Mid-Missouri Conservative PAC - $25,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL).
Mid-Missouri Conservative PAC - $30,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL).
Legio XIII PAC - $96,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of Missouri LLC (Effingham, IL)
BB Freedom Fund (pro-Ben Brown) - $10,000 from MCR PAC.
BB Freedom Fund - $5,100 from Missouri Soybean Association.
Committee To Elect Steve Ehlmann - $65,000 from Real Conservatives for St. Charles County.
Committee To Elect Steve Ehlmann - $10,000 from Jeffrey Cook.
Committee To Elect Steve Ehlmann - $5,208 from Dan Fitter.
Jason Law for St. Charles County - $21,000 from Law and Order PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $50,000 from GOPAC Election Fund - Federal PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $30,000 from AGC of MO PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $12,000 from Missouri Dream PAC.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $20,000 from Citizens to Elect Stephanie Hein.
Heartland Action PAC - $10,000 from Glenn Norton.
Citizens for State Parks Soil and Water - $10,000 from Missouri Land Improvement Contractors Association.
CN-MO PAC - $20,000 from CoinFlip 433 West Van Buren St. STE 1050N Chicago, IL).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Jim Gwinner, Becky Cook, and Charlie Davis.
Sunday: Sen. Rusty Black, Rep. Chris Brown, John Griesheimer, Tami Holliday, and David Overfelt.