MOScout Daily Update: New Polls in Senate 32 & 34 - Butz Adds $200K+ - New CD-5 Ads - Reed’s Road Bill and more…
Senate 32: Exclusive MOScout Poll
This poll was conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout from July 19-21. 345 likely 2026 Senate 32 Republican Primary Election voters, weighted to match expected turnout demographics. The margin of error is +/-5.2% with a 95% level of confidence.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Kehoe’s job performance as Governor?
Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 26%
Not sure: 26%
Q2: Do you support or oppose Amendment 5?
Support: 44%
Oppose: 42%
Not sure: 14%
Q3: The candidates in the Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Ellen Nichols and Jill Carter. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Ellen Nichols: 26%
Jill Carter: 43%
Undecided: 31%
Senate 34: Exclusive MOScout Poll
This poll was conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout from July 19-21. 304 likely 2026 Senate 34 Republican Primary Election voters, weighted to match expected turnout demographics. The margin of error is +/-5.4% with a 95% level of confidence.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Kehoe’s job performance as Governor?
Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 20%
Not sure: 28%
Q2: Do you support or oppose Amendment 5?
Support: 42%
Oppose: 41%
Not sure: 17%
Q3: The candidates in the Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Sean Pouche, Mike Jones and Ryan Gerster. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Sean Pouche: 10%
Mike Jones: 36%
Ryan Gerster: 3%
Undecided: 51%
CD-5: New Pro-Brattin Ads
There are two new ads for Rick Brattin in CD-5.
· The candidate committee ad (see it here) shows Brattin with his pickup truck and a couple of guns promising to be a fighter. “In Washington, he'll fight alongside President Trump to put American workers first, deport illegals, protect our kids, and stop China from stealing our land. I'm Rick Brattin and I approve this message because I'll fight for Missouri and I'll win for you.”
· The Win It Back PAC ad (see it here) attacks his main rival, Taylor Burks: “Burks bankrolled and praised a Never-Trump Republican, calling one his biggest political inspiration. Burks didn't just praise a Never-Trumper. He attacked President Trump and his supporters. Worse, Burks’ PAC even endorsed a Democrat…”
Senate 4: Butz Goes Big
Steve Butz added $225,000 to his campaign committee. It’s a sign that he believes the extra firepower can deliver the race.
· Unlike other candidates I’m seeing who are not using the money they gave to their campaign (last quarter Lisa Thomasrepaid $60K in loans; Jeff Shawanrepaid $40,000 in loans), Butz will use this money.
Senate 16: Kelly PAC Hits Hardwick
Week ago, Penn Entertainment, a casino and gaming conglomerate, sent $40,000 to the pro-Hannah Kelly PAC, Esther PAC. That PAC is now hitting Bill Hardwick, Kelly’s Senate 16 rival, on his stance on VLTs.
Senate 20: Rook Ad Hits Trent on A5
Lori Rook’s latest ad hits Sen. Curtis Trent for his support of Amendment 5, framing it as “the legislation to give the politicians unlimited power to raise your sales taxes.”
Reed’s Road Bill
St. Louis Magazine reports that “Missouri lawmakers have approved new rules cracking down on reimbursements for travel to and from the state capitol—a change that a source says was triggered by apparent abuses of past policy by a Brentwood Democrat.”
· State Representative Ray Reed filed paperwork claiming he’d made 31 trips to and from Jefferson City while the legislature was not in session last summer, a tally that far exceeded other legislators from the St. Louis area. That led to Reed being cut checks for gas and mileage reimbursements totaling $5,076, supplementing his standard $41,770 annual salary.
· This past May, the Missouri House’s Administration and Accounts Committee changed the rules for such reimbursements when the legislature is out of session… Going forward, lawmakers will only be able to get reimbursed for one trip each week to and from the Capitol without special approval. That would mean far less reimbursement for Reed: In the first week of June 2025, for instance, he sought, and received, reimbursements for no fewer than five trips to and from the Capitol.
Earp for Thomas
I wrote yesterday in my “Consultants Rundown” that Steve Earp (Imperator) was working for Tricia Byrnes. That was incorrect. He’s actually working for Lisa Thomas, running in Senate 6.
Hobart to Mazur
On LinkedIn, Ryan Hobart shared that he’s “joined Mazur & Co. as a Senior Associate! I will be helping clients with communications, public affairs, and organizational consulting.”
· This opportunity is especially meaningful because it brings my career full circle. Mindy Mazur was one of my first bosses at the Missouri Secretary of State's office and gave me an opportunity to intern for Robin Carnahan. I must have done something right because I eventually worked my way up to Communications Director.
eMailbag
Regarding the consultants behind the candidates and your note on Christofanelli: If Sophia is able to pull off even a few of these races it just goes to show you that the more conservative candidate has the edge in Republican primaries and she has a knack for picking strong conservative candidates. The establishment consultants love to hate her; they make her and her candidates the boogeyman and sell their services to candidates and special interests for years to come.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $15,000 from Robertson Contractors Inc.
The Committee To Elect Steve Butz - $225,000 from Steve Butz.
Let's Go Brandon PAC (anti-Blue, anti-Skelton) - $150,000 from NEMO Leadership PAC.
Beverly PAC (pro-Mike Jones) - $25,000 from MCR PAC.
We Are Missouri - $340,000 from Missouri AFL-CIO.
Missouri Enterprise Fund (pro-Hardwick) - $12,500 from FCA PAC.
Missouri Enterprise Fund - $11,000 from MO Majority PAC.
Missouri Enterprise Fund - $10,000 from Missouri Prospers PAC.
Take Back Missouri PAC - $90,000 from Made in Missouri PAC.
LOZ Missouri PAC (pro-Vernetti) - $20,000 from Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council MO-KS PAC.
Missouri Promise PAC (pro-A5) - $11,850 from National Taxpayers Union (Washington, DC).
Make Jefferson County Great Again PAC - $50,000 from Missouri Gaming PAC.
Make Jefferson County Great Again PAC - $15,000 from MCR PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from NorthPoint Development, LLC.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $7,000 from LOZ Missouri PAC.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $20,000 from David Steward.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Missouri Health Plan Association PAC.
Show Me Promise - $20,000 from The Madison PAC.
Show Me Promise - $20,000 from Missouri Gaming PAC.
Missouri Republicans PAC - $25,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Shamrock PAC - $15,000 from MCR PAC.
Protect Missouri Workers PAC - $10,000 from Alliance for Economic Progress.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Sen. Rick Brattin, Rep. Elizabeth Fuchs, and Jason Brown.