MOScout Daily Update: New Polls in Senate 16 & 18 - Latest Pro-A5 Ad - The Ghost of Christofanelli - Who’s Consulting for Who and more…
Senate 16: Exclusive MOScout Poll
This poll was conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout from July 17-20. 304 likely 2026 Senate 16 Republican Primary Election voters, weighted to match expected turnout demographics. The margin of error is +/-5.4% with a 95% level of confidence.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Kehoe’s job performance as Governor?
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 23%
Not sure: 27%
Q2: Do you support or oppose Amendment 5?
Support: 44%
Oppose: 40%
Not sure: 16%
Q3: The candidates in the Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Bill Hardwick, Philip Lohmann, Don Mayhew and Hannah Kelly. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Bill Hardwick: 30%
Philip Lohmann: 1%
Don Mayhew: 19%
Hannah Kelly: 23%
Undecided: 27%
Senate 18: Exclusive MOScout Poll
This poll was conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout from July 17-20. 296 likely 2026 Senate 18 Republican Primary Election voters, weighted to match expected turnout demographics. The margin of error is +/-5.4% with a 95% level of confidence.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Kehoe’s job performance as Governor?
Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 28%
Not sure: 23%
Q2: Do you support or oppose Amendment 5?
Support: 42%
Oppose: 41%
Not sure: 17%
Q3: The candidates in the Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Dusty Blue, Ed Lewis and Greg Sharpe. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Dusty Blue: 28%
Ed Lewis: 21%
Greg Sharpe: 26%
Undecided: 25%
Phil Christofanelli and the Limits of Money
As we witness huge sums piled into hot Senate races, I sometimes wonder if we’re watching a replay of 2024’s Senate 23 race. The lesson there was that if someone is clearly more aligned with the primary voter base, money, after a certain point, has no impact.
Rep. Phil Christofanelli spent over $1 million in his primary ($488K in his candidate committee and $603K in the Gladius PAC). That was $700,000 more than then-Rep. Adam Schnelting spent ($199K in his candidate committee and $115K in the Protect Our Kids PAC).
But on Election Night, it wasn’t close: Schnelting 50%, Christofanelli 23%, Rich Chrismer 15%.
· Obviously, you need enough to get your message out, but at a certain point it’s not about the money.
New Pro-A5 Ad
The latest pro-A5 ad from Missouri Promise is called “Keep It Simple.” See it here.
Let's make this simple. Since 2019, politicians nearly doubled state spending. Amendment five changes our constitution to stop overspending, passing $3,000 a year in savings onto average working families, closing tax loopholes, eliminating income taxes, cutting property taxes. Powerful lobbyists are lying to protect their loopholes. But the simple truth is, Amendment Five is the biggest tax cut in Missouri history. Stop overspending, cut taxes. Simple.
Meanwhile
Scott Charton accuses pro-A5 speakers of “mansplaining” in their debate to aired this evening…
Who’s Consulting Who
I zipped through the MEC expenditure reports to try to compile a list of who is consulting for whom in this cycle’s Senate races…
Senate 4
Steve Butz - Show Me Victories (Mike Kelley)
Gina Mitten - Purple Paisley Strategies (Levi Lovell)
Senate 6
Ike Skelton - MO Maverick (Sophia Shore)
Jake Vogel - Barklage Group (David Barklage), DRE (Daniel Ellinger)
Derrick Spicer - Carolina Campaign Consultants (James Harris)
Rudy Veit - Palm Strategic Group (Jonathan Ratliff)
Lisa Thomas - Imperator (Steve Earp), Schwadron Group (Adam Schwadron)
Amber Buckles - ?
Senate 8
JP - Axiom, Victory (Rod Jetton, Brett Dinkins), 72 Consulting (Elijah Haahr), Leadbelt (Casey Burns)
Dan Stacey - ?
Senate 10
Tricia Byrnes - ?
Mike Deering - Hancock Prouty
Senate 14
John Bowman - TJV Consulting (Sydni Jackson), MO Political Consulting (Rosetta Okohson)
Joe Palm - ?
Shaunte Duncan - ?
Raychel Proudie - ?
Senate 16
Bill Hardwick - MO Maverick
Hannah Kelly - 72 Consulting
Don Mayhew - Daniel Seitz
Senate 18
Dusty Blue - MO Maverick
Ed Lewis - Axiom
Greg Sharpe - Palm
Senate 20
Lori Rook - MO Maverick
Curtis Trent - Barklage, Victory, Axiom
Senate 28
Sam Alexander - MO Maverick
Brad Pollitt - Axiom
Chuck Lentz - ?
Senate 32
Jill Carter - Campaign & Issue Management (Whitney O’Daniel), Leadbelt
Ellen Nichols - Victory
Senate 34
Mike Jones - Axiom, Victory
Sean Pouche - Palm
Ryan Gerster - ?
Lobbyist Registrations
Gamble & Schlemeier added Pontera Solutions Inc.
Jay Reichard deleted Raptor Technologies.
$5K+ Contributions
417 PAC (pro-Trent) - $10,000 from MCR PAC.
PROUD PAC (pro-Proudie) - $10,000 from HALO PAC.
Cut the Bull PAC (pro-Deering) - $17,600 from Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri.
Butz STL PAC (pro-Butz) - $9,000 from Missouri Senior PAC.
Butz STL PAC - $6,000 from Missouri Growth PAC.
MO Maverick PAC - $25,000 from J&J Gaming of Missouri (Effingham, IL).
MO Maverick PAC - $10,000 from Missouri Medical PAC.
1776 PAC (pro-Schroer) - $15,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Forward PAC (pro-Fogle) - $10,000 from Caesars Enterprise Services LLC (Las Vegas, NV).
Casteel PAC (pro-Casteel) - $10,000 from J&J Ventures Gaming of Missouri (Effingham, IL).
Protect Freedom and Democracy - $150,000 from Protect Majority Rule MO.
Nexus PAC - $9,000 from Pharmaceutical Care Management Association (Washington, DC).
Centene Corporation Political Action Committee d/b/a Centene Missouri Federal PAC - $40,000 from Centene Corporation Political Action Committee.
AGC of MO PAC - $16,350 from Emery Sapp & Sons.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Christian Morgan, Cori Bush, Robin Ransom, Brent Powell, and Sally Faith.