MOScout Daily Update: New Polls in Senate 20 & 28 - New Mitten Spot - Mayhew Flips on A5 - RenewMO Backs Sharpe and more…
Senate 20: Exclusive MOScout Poll
This poll was conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout from July 17-19. 301 likely 2026 Senate 20 Republican Primary Election voters, weighted to match expected turnout demographics. The margin of error is +/-5.4% with a 95% level of confidence.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Kehoe’s job performance as Governor?
Approve: 56%
Disapprove: 23%
Not sure: 22%
Q2: Do you support or oppose Amendment 5?
Support: 44%
Oppose: 37%
Not sure: 19%
Q3: The candidates in the Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Lori Rook and Curtis Trent. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Lori Rook: 39%
Curtis Trent: 35%
Undecided: 26%
Senate 28: Exclusive MOScout Poll
This poll was conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout from July 17-19. 304 likely 2026 Senate 28 Republican Primary Election voters, weighted to match expected turnout demographics. The margin of error is +/-5.4% with a 95% level of confidence.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Kehoe’s job performance as Governor?
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 26%
Not sure: 20%
Q2: Do you support or oppose Amendment 5?
Support: 45%
Oppose: 33%
Not sure: 22%
Q3: The candidates in the Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Sam Alexander, Brad Pollitt and Chuck Lentz. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Sam Alexander: 28%
Brad Pollitt: 25%
Chuck Lentz: 17%
Undecided: 30%
Senate 4: Mitten Hits Butz on Education Funding
New 15-second commercial from Gina Mitten adds a second line of attack against Steve Butz. See “School Privateer Steve” here.
Steve Butz voted to defund public education and send our money to private schools. Gina Mitten believes every kid deserves the best and safest schools. That's why she has the support of our teachers across the district.
Senate 16: Mayhew Calls A5 ‘Pig in a Poke’
Rep. Don Mayhew, running in Senate 16, says he’s voting No on Amendment 5. He voted for it during session.
I’m not hearing good things about it. I have to agree with folks. It’s a pig in a poke, plain and simple. We vote for it, but we don’t know who ends up getting the exceptions. And we know how Jeff City works. If you find the high-priced lobbyists and he’ll get you an exception…
· That’s why I’m going to pledge to you right now that when I’m in the senate I’m going to make sure that we’re not going to use the sales tax to fund this scheme.
Senate 18: Renew MO Backs Sharpe
Renew Missouri Action filed a non-committee expenditure report showing $12,345 in support for Rep. Greg Sharpe in Senate 18.
MDC Backs Away From CWD Culling
The Department of Conservation announced it will not conduct targeted deer removals this winter and currently has no plans to resume the controversial practice. Director Jason Sumners said MDC will instead rely primarily on hunters during the regular season to reduce deer populations in areas affected by chronic wasting disease.
Sumners framed the reversal as a lesson in not being so focused on technical problem-solving that you neglect getting buy-in.
· After one community conversation, a longtime MDC staff member pulled me aside and said, “We missed it. We were so focused on doing the work that we didn’t spend enough time having these conversations with the public.”
What It Means
The move should buy MDC some goodwill with rural legislators. But it’s a peace offering, not a peace treaty. Many lawmakers will still believe the agency has too much independence and too little political accountability.
I’m still working through campaign finance reports. Here are numbers from the county executive races
St. Louis County Exec
Brian Williams raised $55,100, spent $116,309, and had $213,309 on-hand.
STLCO raised $322,126, spent $1,500, and had $781,040 on-hand
Jake Zimmerman raised $135,769, spent $493,615 and had $496,308 on-hand.
Angela Mosley raised $2,987, spent $2,500, and had $55,699 on-hand.
Mosley PAC raised $19,800, spent $17,079, and had $2,720 on-hand.
Jackson County Exec
Stacy Lake raised $19,385, spent $14,245 and had $17,411 on-hand.
Ryan Meyer has not yet filed.
Holmes Osborne raised $1,975, spent $249, and had $1,725 on-hand.
Bill Baird raised $165,793, spent $50,828, and had $116,290 on-hand.
Dan Tarwater III raised $95,575, spent $36,309, and had $59,265 on-hand.
Manuel “Manny” Abarca IV hasn’t filed yet, but is making headlines after alleging a bribery scheme.
St. Charles Exec
Steve Ehlmann raised $98,956 spent $73,679 and had $390,797 on-hand.
Real Conservatives for St. Charles County PAC raised $31,041, spent $34,473, and had $79,074 on-hand.
Bill Eigel raised $128,480, spent $150,070, and had $453,822 on-hand.
BILL PAC raised $159,941, spent $167,019, and had $67,543 on-hand
Jason Law raised $40,241, spent $177,501, and had $110,872 on-hand.
Law and Order PAC raised $20,150, spent $1,400, and had $25,322 on-hand.
Meanwhile, Arnie Dienoff’s latest committee is for statewide office and hasn’t filed its July report yet. Tut-tut, Public Advocate.
And
AI comes to the St. Charles County Executive race with this Jason Law ad showing AI Steve Ehlmann and AI Bill Eigel yukking it up before Law declares, “We need a change!”
New PACs
· Better MO PAC was formed. It’s in support of Republican Jacqueline Stenger, running in House 35, Rep. Keri Ingle’s old seat. See the paperwork here.
· World Wide Technology Holding Co., LLC Political Action Committee (WWT PAC) was formed. See the paperwork here.
· Safety Net PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Heather Grote. See the paperwork here.
· Jackson County Tax Reform Now was formed. Its treasurer is Tom Hoppe. See the paperwork here.
Lobbyist Registrations
Jackie Murphy and Abigail Singer added Hitachi Energy USA, Inc.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for Fair Taxation (anti-A5) - $900,000 from Missouri Association of REALTORS.
Missourians for Fair Governance (anti-A4) - $430,992 from Protect Majority Rule Missouri.
Missourians for Fair Governance - $313,895 from Protect Majority Rule Missouri.
Missourians for Fair Governance - $56,129 from Protect Majority Rule Missouri.
Missourians for Fair Governance - $300,000 from Missouri Association of REALTORS.
MO Republican Party - $15,000 from Doug Albrecht.
MO Republican Party - $15,000 from Roy Pfautch.
HALO PAC - $40,000 from We the People Priorities PAC.
HALO PAC - $25,000 from Nexus PAC.
Seniors Count STL - $15,000 from Jewish Family Services.
Seniors Count STL - $10,000 from Jewish Family Services.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Dick Fleming.