MOScout Daily Update: More Dem Ballots - $7 Beef - Updated 2026 Watch - State Fair Opens and more…
More Dem Ballots
A few folks have noted that in last week’s primary election there were several places where Democratic ballots largely outnumbered Republican ballots. The accompanying view is that this is a good omen for Dems.
I’ve watched this phenomenon over the course of many election cycles and it’s important to note that this has no predictive power.
At best it hints at Democratic enthusiasm at this point in time. Related, in this case perhaps to the Amendments on the ballot.
Still, it’s adding to nervous Republican jitters after the shellacking of A4 and A5.
· In Senate 30, Democrat Betsy Fogle had nearly 2,000 more votes than Republican Melanie Stinnett.
· In House 96, Democrat Matt Vitale garnered 6,134 Democratic ballots to Republican Rep. Brad Christ’s 4,018 ballots.
What It Means
Especially in the House races, if there is a Dem surge in enthusiasm, HRCC will have to play a lot of defense. They will generally go to the mat to protect incumbents.
This is good news for Rep. Jeremy Dean – considered a top Republican target – as it will reduce resources and relieve pressure on potentially vulnerable Dems.
$7 Beef
Maybe as damaging for Republicans in November as $4 gas could be $7 beef…
Updated: 2026 Watch
I’ve updated the 2026 Watch page, pivoting from the primaries to the general election. I’ll be adding to this in the coming weeks with forecasts of winners and notes. Find it here.
For now, it lists all the legislative races with hyperlinks to the candidates’ campaign websites as well as a link to the partisan make-up of each district.
And
A few months ago, I’d listed 17 House races which could be competitive. Find them here. I’ll be going back through those and others with a closer eye next week to try to figure where exactly the House battleground races will be.
· The Senate is very simply two races: Senate 30 is the marquee race between Reps. Melanie Stinnett and Betsy Fogle. And Senate 8 is the other potentially competitive seat where Speaker Jon Patterson will try to hold it for Republicans against Rep. Keri Ingle.
Driving the Day: State Fair Kicks Off
The Missouri State Fair kicks off today. See the State Fair website here.
· The Governor’s Ham Breakfast is one week from today, August 20.
Royals and Hanaway’s Suit
Tipster says that “the Royals are trying to skirt MBE/WBE requirements with the new stadium, using AG Hanaway’s suit.”
Attorney General Catherine Hanawaysued Kansas City to dismantle its “percentage-based quota for its contracts.”
· The move could still create a backlash as Mayor Quinton Lucas rushes to finalize the deal.
Veit Post-Mortem
The News Tribune quotes Rep. Rudy Veit considering why he fell short in Senate 6. See it here.
"(There were) seven or eight negative ads against me as soon as the race started," he said. "If I had been negative, we may have won."
A7 in November
Clarkston Nelson highlights a ballot initiative that no one’s been talking about this year… Amendment 7.
The brainchild of Sen. Adam Schnelting, Amendment 7 would establish a state-run “sovereign wealth fund.” Schnelting envisions it replacing taxation as the source of government funding.
“My hope is that in, say, 100 years from now, or 125 years from now, Missouri doesn’t tax its citizens whatsoever — at all,” he said. “All taxes, whether of income, corporate income, sales and use, the state portion of the personal property tax or the real estate tax, all of them will be gone. That’s the goal.”
· See the ballot language here.
Lobbyist Registrations
Jay Hahn and Ryan DeBoef added City of Mountain Grove.
$5K+ Contributions
HOMEFRONT PAC (pro-Webber) - $10,000 from Flagship Council PAC Inc.
HOMEFRONT PAC - $7,500 from Missouri Hospital Association.
Committee To Elect Steve Ehlmann - $10,000 from August Busch III.
Missouri Realtors PAC - $10,325 from Robert Hussey.
Missouri Realtors PAC - $5,115 from Theresa Gander.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Aaron Baker and Edward Wildberger.