MOScout Daily Update: Tracking Late Expenditures - Readers’ Pick’em Contest - Graff to Gov’s Office and more…
A5: Not One Single Named Donor
One MOScouter pointed out that there’s not a single individual donor for the effort to pass Amendment 5. Here’s the full list of Missouri Promise’s contributors totaling $21 million…
Missouri Action - $9.6 million.
Secure Missouri - $2.9 million
Better Missouri - $2.4 million
American Policy Coalition - $2 million.
Missouri Promise Inc. - $1.9 million.
American Advancement Inc - $1.2 million.
Revitalization Project - $970,000.
National Taxpayers Union - $11,850.
· The Realtors are funding the biggest anti-A5 campaign through Missourians for Fair Governance. And there are some individual donors to the “No Everything Tax” campaign.
Readers’ Pick’em Contest
Send me your best guesses and we’ll crown this cycle’s Crystal Ball Guru. Entries must be emailed, not texted, to (dave@moscout.com) before midnight tonight.
Senate 4: Butz, Mitten
Senate 6: Buckles, Skelton, Spicer, Thomas, Veit, Vogel
Senate 10: Byrnes, Deering
Senate 14: Bowman, Duncan, Palm, Proudie
Senate 16: Hardwick, Kelly, Lohmann, Mayhew
Senate 18: Blue, Lewis, Sharpe
Senate 20: Rook, Trent
Senate 28: Alexander, Lentz, Pollitt
Senate 32: Carter, Nichols
Tiebreaker: % Yes vote for Amendment 5
And
For what it’s worth, find my guesses for all House and Senate races under 2026 Watch.
Non-Committee Expenditures of Interest
· Realtors backed Steve Ehlmann in St. Charles, spending $40,000 on digital ads and direct mail. See it here.
· Missouri Charter School Action sent mail supporting Demetrius Upchurch (House 73, where Raychel Proudie is leaving) and David Dimmitt (House 83, running against incumbent Rep. Ray Reed). See it here.
· Missouri Chamber Political Institute came in with about $30,000 of late mail and texts for Hannah Kelly in Senate 16. See it here. And $20,000 in ads for Mike Deering in Senate 10. See it here.
· Missouri Civil Justice Reform Coalition Inc spent $92,000 on mail for its preferred candidates (Steve Butz in Senate 4, Jake Vogel in Senate 6, and Curtis Trent in Senate 20). See it here.
· AFL-CIO spent $70,000 on mail opposing Amendments 4 and 5. See it here.
Late Independent Expenditures
· Legio XIII PAC, funded by J & J Ventures, spent $155,687 in support of Bill Hardwick in Senate 16. See the filing here.
· MO Constitutional Conservative Council PAC, a dormant PAC until July, spent $80,000 supporting Tricia Byrnes (and attacking Mike Deering) in Senate 10. Among the late contributors to MCCC PAC was Mid-Missouri Conservative PAC which sent three checks totaling $52,800 on July 27 and 29. Ten days earlier, J & J Ventures contributed $55,000 to Mid-Missouri Conservative PAC.
House 154: Smith Raising $$$ Until the End
In House 154, Travis Smith, running against incumbent Rep. Lisa Durnell, filed a 24-Hour late contribution report. Among the $4,000 in contributions was a $1,000 donation from KC Biz PAC, the KC Chamber’s PAC.
Punishing Political Evolution?
Gina Mitten’s Senate 4 campaign has largely targeted the issue of abortion, successfully casting Steve Butz as anti-choice. Butz, however, has not been uniformly anti-choice. His supporters note…
· “Butz campaigned for A3 in 2024.”
· He has donated over $30K to pro-choice Democrats over the past 8 years. “Name another elected Democrat that has done that.”
What It Means
One consequence of a campaign that demonizes an old anti-choice vote without acknowledging more recent pro-choice votes is that it will discourage any other pro-life pol from evolving into a pro-choice one.
Graff to Gov’s Office
Sarah Graff, previously a staffer to Congressman Sam Graves, has joined the governor’s office as Director of Federal Affairs.
· Graff had a brief run for Senate 18 earlier this year.
An Eye on Kansas
Politico reports on a potentially influential ballot referendum in Kansas. Read it here.
Kansans on Tuesday will decide whether to amend the state constitution to allow voters to directly elect justices to the state’s highest court — a push by the legislature’s Republican supermajority to reshape a judicial system that’s repeatedly stymied its policy priorities.
Critics of the measure worry Kansas could become the inspiration for other states to overhaul their own high courts, eroding the independence of the judiciary nationwide.
Some supporters say that’s the point. “Anyone who observes the U.S. Supreme Court or state supreme courts and pretends that there aren't political inclinations and political factors going into the judges' calculations on close cases is deceiving themselves,” GOP Kansas AG Kris Kobach, who backs the amendment, said in an interview with Playbook…
· More than $12 million have been funneled into the referendum from both sides, including the ACLU, the Koch brothers-backed Americans for Prosperity and organizations tied to the conservative legal activist and Federalist Society co-chair Leonard Leo.
RIP Rep. Schwab
From McCombs Funeral Homes: David Wayne Schwab, 83, of Jackson, passed away Thursday, July 30, 2026, at Chateau Girardeau, a Cape Girardeau care facility… He was a lifelong farmer, working alongside his brother, Roger Schwab, raising corn, milo, wheat, soybeans and beef cattle. He and Phyllis also owned and operated the former Schwab’s Pines, a Christmas tree farm they built from the ground up. David served the people of the 157th/158th District in the Missouri House of Representatives for 14 years, from 1988 to 2002, where he served on the Agriculture, Appropriations, Budget, Economic Development and Professional Registration, Elections, and Transportation committees.
· He was known as a principled voice for rural Missouri — a farmer first, more comfortable in his work than in the spotlight, and known more by his deeds than his words.
eMailbag on Hallway Comment
Every consultant I know is working 90+ hours a week right now only to be called lazy by lobbyists on their summer vacations! Lol!
Lobbyist Registrations
Earl Simms deleted Paraquad.
$5K+ Contributions
Committee To Elect Steve Ehlmann - $10,000 from Real Conservatives for St Charles County PAC.
Committee to Elect Tony Williams, Prosecutor - $7,000 from Voters For Good Government.
Missourians for Fair Governance - $58,000 from Protect Majority Rule Missouri.
Missourians for Fair Governance - $193,900 from Protect Majority Rule Missouri.
Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $15,000 from AGC of MO PAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Reps. Mazzie Christensen and Keith Elliott, Dan Engemann, Larry Wilson, and Bev Randles.