MOScout Daily Update: Barky’s Good Night - Henderson For Floor? - Bloomberg Give $1M to Anti-A3 - Casteel’s Idle PAC and more…

‍ ‍

Barky’s Good Night

Veteran Republican consultant David Barklage had a very good night on Tuesday. 

He was the general consultant for the Realtors, leading the charge against Amendments 4 and 5, which both went down by historic margins.  He was also GC for Steve Ehlmann’s St. Charles race.  Plus, he had a hand in several winning Senate campaigns with Curtis Trent being his only loss.  Among his winners…

·       Senate 6: Vogel (Candidate)

·       Senate 10: Deering (PAC)

·       Senate 16: Hardwick (IEs)

·       Senate 18: Sharpe (PAC)

·       Senate 32: Carter (Candidate)

Others

·       Axiom notched wins (Vogel, Patterson, Deering, Hardwick, Jones, and Carter) while losing with Lewis, Pollitt, and Trent.  And, of course, they won with Stigall.

·       Palm won with Deering and Sharpe, while losing with Veit.

·       Victory had a tough night losing with Byrnes, Trent, and Nichols, though they did help on winners Patterson and Jones.

·       James Harris lost with Spicer, but brought home the congressional win with Rick Brattin.

·       And finally, the newcomer Sophia Shore won with Alexander, Rook and Hardwick, while losing with Skelton and Blue.  She also helped Bill Eigel, who lost the St. Charles race.  And you could count Jim Avery’s uncontested win because as we know, “to subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.”

And

One MOScouter notes that Shore “is probably the one in the Missouri mix as far as consultants who isn’t a registered lobbyist or doesn’t have financial ties to companies playing in these races.”

We’ll see whether that changes.  Shore may find, as others have, that the seasonal revenues of campaign work need to be augmented to live year-round.  And when people see you have the ear of a senator or two, there are likely offers to monetize that access.

O’Laughlin Coattails?

Amendment 4 failed in every single county by a wide margin.  Its best showing was in Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin’s home county, Shelby where it failed 58.9% to 41.1%.

·       The strongest county for Amendment 5 was Pemiscot, where “No” still won 68.2% to 31.8%.

Bean’s Solid Footing

One building denizen sees Election Night as solidifying Sen. Jason Bean’s position as the front runner (and only announced) candidate for Senate President Pro-Tem.

Bean and his PAC supported…

·       Jill Carter re-election: $37K

·       Mike Deering: $20K

·       Bill Hardwick: $32K

·       Greg Sharpe: $45K

·       Jake Vogel: $25K

Henderson for Floor?

One member of the Hallway tells me that Sen. Mike Henderson is the floor leader if he throws his hat in the ring.  “He is extremely well respected and well liked.  His decency and honesty also make him a logical choice for Senators that are tired of the lying and constant bullying.  The Senate will need someone that can bring the temperature down in a room, tell the truth and bring people together.”

Bloomberg Gives $1M+ to Anti-A3 Campaign

In the large contributions today, former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg sent $1.25 million to the anti-Amendment 3 committee, Stop the Ban.

What It Means

Republicans have railed against “out of state” money (often turning a blind eye when it’s employed for issues they support), but this contribution shows that the issue could attract national money for opponents.

Brattin Not 100% Going to DC

One reader says I shouldn’t act like a special election for Brattin’s seat is a given.  “Close but not 100% certain.  There’s a small chance we use the old map. And, unlikely, but in a mega wave (and I mean mega wave) I guess Cleaver has a shot. Overall combine this 2 and betting markets are giving a 1 in 6 chance.”

·       See prediction markets here.

Nolte Correction

I wrote about Jerry Nolte “losing” his race for Clay County Presiding Commissioner.  That was incorrect.  It’s a nonpartisan primary so the top two candidates move on.  Nolte finished second, and will advance to November, facing Jennifer Justus.

Did Amendments Drive Turnout?

One reader sent in this interesting observation: “Even though there was an open US Senate seat in 2022, about 100,000 more folks voted in the 2026 primary.”

And Missourinet reports that “one of the more notable trends from Missouri’s August 4 primary election was the number of voters who requested nonpartisan ballots rather than choosing a Republican or Democratic ballot. Secretary of State Denny Hoskins said voter interest in the statewide constitutional amendments drove many Missourians to cast ballots focused solely on those issues. Some polling locations even had to replenish supplies of nonpartisan ballots during the day.”

Casteel PAC Sat on Hands?

Based on its absence of filings, it looks like Rep. David Casteel’s PAC, Casteel PAC, didn’t do anything to help as he battled an insurgent, and ultimately successful challenge from David Robertson.

The PAC had $67,000 on-hand in its July report and received $10,000 from Rex Sinquefield and $10,000 from J & J Ventures in the weeks leading up to the election, but didn’t deploy those resources.

·       Casteel lost by 508 votes.

eMailbag on Results

The margin A5 lost by is the most shocking event in Missouri politics since Governor Carnahan’s tragedy in 2000.  If we all didn’t know Kehoe, and Kehoe was an outsider, we would all be saying “see this is why you don’t have amateurs and outsiders running the highest level of Missouri government.”  But we aren’t, and he’s not.  This was political malpractice. The Kehoe administration has been great at bending the building to its will.  That may be over.  His main priorities – the Chiefs and income tax cuts – were unsuccessful after asking legislators to take tough votes, due to the Governor’s supposed political power.  That may be a tougher sell now as well. Just ask Curtis Trent.  A5 was the worst run “real” political campaign in at least this century.  And could be followed by one of the worst political decisions in recent memory with having the First Lady tied to the Amendment 3 campaign.  Kehoe is on the ballot again in November after what just happened.

The other issue Rooks hit Sen. Trent on was raising utility prices. Hopefully more voters will pay attention to how their legislators voted on Senate Bill 4 in 2025. There are people in BOTH caucuses who should be held accountable for their yes votes on that bad legislation, brought to us through the deep pockets of monopoly investor-owned utility companies.

Lobbyist Registrations

Sherry Doctorian and Doug Nelson added Covista Inc.

Earl Simms added Aligned.

Marcus Slade added Everytown For Gun Safety Action Fund.

Tim O’Connell added Terrawatt LLC.         

Jeff Roorda added Patterson & Associates LLC.

Jay Reichard deleted Advanced Power Alliance.

Gunnar See deleted Microsoft Corporation, and OnMed.

Garrett Webb deleted Draiver, National Law Enforcement Training Center, Bridging Families to Communities and Beyond/Saint Louis YouthBuild, and BJG Meat Co. LLC.

Sherry Doctorian deleted CRH Americas Materials.

$5K+ Contributions

Stop the Ban - $1,250,000 from Michael R Bloomberg (New York, NY).

Missouri Realtors PAC Inc - $75,000 from Kenneith S. Schneider Irrev Trust IMA.

Missouri First - $30,000 from Republic Services (Phoenix, AZ).

Missouri Growth PAC - $25,000 from Protection Plus LLC.

MO Bankers Association State PAC - $10,000 from Central Bank.

964 PAC - $30,000 from Robert Brinkmann.

Missouri House Democrats Action Fund - $5,001 from Garner for Missouri.

Freedom Incorporated - $15,000 from Together KC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Mark Milton, Bob Nance, Rachael Herndon Dunn, Bryan Stevenson, and Jack Bondon.

Friday: Carol Kehoe, Sen. Kurtis Gregory, Karlee Seek, Mike Dethrow, and Don Suggs.

Saturday: Shawn Furey, Greta Bax, Casey Millburg, Joe Steelman, and Robbyn Wahby.

Sunday: Lyndall Fraker, and Christopher Till.

MOScout Schedule

I’m off for a long weekend – be back in your inbox on Monday!