MOScout Daily Update: Election Results and What They Mean…
A4 and A5 Crushed
Voters rebuked Governor Mike Kehoe and the Republican legislature by rejecting Amendments 4 and 5 in unprecedented landslides. A4 went down 80% to 20% and A5 was even worse (!!) losing 83% to 16%.
While tax-cutters had said in the closing days of the campaign that a loss wouldn’t end their efforts, this is such a thumping that it’s hard to see any appetite for revisiting this issue any time soon – especially given the budget’s tight outlook.
The Realtors released a magnanimous victory video saying, “The people have spoken… this was not a partisan victory, nor a defeat of any person or institution. Now is the time to move forward with the hard work to find a better way. We pledge to work with our elected representatives to reform our government and grow our economy for all.”
What It Means
It will be much harder for the governor to twist arms for a tough vote. Legislators have largely done his bidding. But the stadium subsidy vote, and now these disastrous constitutional amendments, will make the General Assembly wary of taking another one for the team anytime soon.
Election Results
See the Secretary of State’s unofficial results here.
Here’s the MOScout dashboard. I’ll leave it up another day or so.
The Other Big Story
The other big story of the night is the huge turnover in the Senate. We were already looking at 11 new senators, but with Sen. Rick Brattin’s victory and Sen. Curtis Trent’s loss, that number will be 13… 38% of the Senate next year will be freshmen.
· In particular, Trent was expected to run for Floor Leader. That puts a twist in the leadership race. One name that might step into the void: Sen. Brad Hudson.
Quick Takes on Senate Races
Senate 4: The Gina Mitten campaign correctly identifies abortion as the main issue, beating Steve Butz by a wide margin 68% to 31%.
Senate 6: Jake Vogel withstood negative attacks and nosed out a tight victory with 26% in a six-way primary. Rudy Veit and Ike Skelton trailed close behind with 24% and 22%. This gives Kehoe another reliable ally in the Senate.
Senate 8: JP coasted past Dan Stacy while preserving his huge war-chest for the November battle with Rep. Keri Ingle.
Senate 10: Mike Deering beat Tricia Byrnes 55% to 45%. J & J Ventures had a mixed bag last night. This was one of their losses, as they backed Byrnes and the casinos supported Deering.
Senate 14: Rep. Raychel Proudie will be a strong addition to the Democratic Caucus in the Senate. She scored 38% in a tough four-way primary. John Bowman was second with 30%.
Senate 16: This was another place where J & J and casinos faced off. Bill Hardwick, who carried the VLT bill, won, giving them a champion in the upper chamber.
Senate 18: Cindy O’Laughlin’s preferred candidate, Ed Lewis, placed third in this race. His PAC aimed a lot of its fire at Dusty Blue who faded to second with Greg Sharpe surging to victory.
Senate 20: The upset of the night. Lori Rook’s ads painted Curtis Trent as an insider, and hammered at data centers. Trent’s support of A5 probably hurt him too.
Senate 28, 32, 34: These weren’t close in the end. Sam Alexander easily won with 58% in a three-way, while Jill Carter trounced Ellen Nichols’ revenge campaign, and Mike Jones was never in danger of losing.
The Senate Freedom Caucus believes it’ll be reconstituting with larger numbers next session. Sens. Nick Schroer and Adam Schnelting will return. They’ll be joined by Sen.-elect Bill Hardwick,who’s a House Freedom Caucus member. Other possible joiners: Jim Avery and Sam Alexander.
Missouri NEA’s memo cheered the results: Missouri NEA won 6 of 7 State Senate races where union members made investments or endorsements. Conversely, Federation for Children wasted more than $400,000 in Missouri State Senate races winning none of the races where they deployed significant resources. MNEA’s wins: Gina Mitten, Mike Deering, Raychel Proudie, Greg Sharpe, and Jill Carter.
Congressionals
CD-1: Wesley Bell easily beat Cori Bush 59% to 36%. He was better funded, had sharper ads that reminded constituents about the loose cannon that Bush was during her one-term, and he understood the assignment – be a consistent Democratic vote. Voters rewarded him. That Bell beat Bush in the City as well as the County should give caution to the City’s progressive wing.
CD-5: Rick Brattin’s 44% in a six-way race was comfortably ahead of Taylor Burks’ 26%. There will be plenty of interest for Brattin’s Senate 31 seat. Names that quickly come to mind: Reps. Dane Diehl, Sherri Gallick, and Brandon Phelps (though Phelps is considered future Speaker material if he were to stay in the House).
· Meanwhile, looking toward November, Dems will insist that one shouldn’t count out incumbent Congressman Emanuel Cleaver against far-right Brattin in a year where Donald Trump’s popularity is sinking. Facts of life: the district was drawn for a Republican; it will be won by a Republican.
CD-6: Chris Stigall beat Nathan Willett by 10 points, 44% to 34%, as the Roe-Graves-Lager alliance retains its grip on Northern Missouri Republican politics.
House Incumbents Who Lost
House 56: Michael Davis has escaped challenges before, but not this time.
House 144: Tony Harbison was taken down by former Rep. Chris Dinkins.
House 97: David Casteel lost to David Robertson who entered when Casteel briefly flirted with a Senate 22 run and then refused to back down. Robertson ran from the right side and might join the House’s Freedom Caucus.
County Execs
St. Louis County Executive Race: Jake Zimmerman beat Sen. Brian Williams 46% to 33% with Angela Mosley outperforming expectations and probably hurting Williams in the process. Mosley won 19%. Meanwhile the County’s effort to raise the use tax failed again, going down by a 2-1 margin.
St. Charles County Executive: Steve Ehlmann scored a remarkable victory, holding off a spirited challenge from Bill Eigel. Ehlmann won 47% to Eigel’s 31% with Jason Law garnering 19%. Ehlmann, the incumbent, was aided by having two opponents who split the votes of those disenchanted with his leadership, but pulling out 47% provided some validation for his tenure. This is set-back for Eigel’s political prospects, one silver lining Governor Kehoe can take from the evening’s result.
Jackson County Executive: Stacy Lake won with KCUR saying“her two previous runs for county executive made her a strong candidate in this year’s primaries… Lake said ‘This is a campaign that's been running for six years, and so what you're seeing is basically a mass of six years of dedication from my followers.’”
Hoskins Rejects Redistricting Referendum
Secretary of State Denny Hoskins rejected the referendum petition on the redistricting map saying that “the Missouri Constitution does not authorize a referendum on congressional redistricting plans passed by the General Assembly.”
· People Not Politicians, which submitted the petition, said they would take Hoskins to court. “There are more than enough signatures, verified by election authorities, to qualify the referendum. Courts have consistently held that Congressional redistricting is subject to state constitutional provisions including the right to a referendum.”
Sutton Repeats As Pick’em Winner
Wes Sutton tied last August with Eric Jennings in the Pick’em Contest, and he did it again last night. No one got them all right (who possibly could?). Five folks had one error, but Sutton came closest to the A5 vote. The other four with only one error…
· Brian Grace
· Jeremy LaFaver
· John Mayfield
· Mark Jones
And
Mayfield’s wife also won last night… Debbie Mayfield won a seat on the Jackson County Democratic Committee representing Prairie Township as a Committeewoman.
Other Races
· Lobbyist Sharon Jones won her Fourth Ward Columbia City Council race with a convincing 51% in a three-way race.
· Former Rep. Brandon Ellington (Jackson County 2nd District At-Large) lost his races.
Lobbyist Registrations
Bill Gamble added J & J Ventures.
Cynthia Gamble deleted PENN Entertainment, Inc.
Steven Tilley and Thomas Robbins deleted Barnes Law Firm LLC.
Elizabeth Lauber deleted Flotron & McIntosh.
$5K+ Contributions
MO Chamber PAC - $7,500 from AT&T.
PULSE PAC - $34,200 from Centegix (Atlanta, GA).
HBS MO State PAC - $15,000 from Altria Client Services (Richmond, VA).
Stop the Ban - $50,000 from Ross Boucher (San Francisco, CA).
Stop the Ban - $100,000 from Health Forward Foundation.
Real Action PAC - $20,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to George Draper III.
MOScout Schedule
I’ll be off for a long weekend – off Friday, Saturday and Sunday.