MOScout Weekender: SCOTUS Backs SCOMO - Hallway Predicts House Races - WWTW and more…
SCOTUS Backs SCOMO
The U.S. Supreme Court granted a stay of the Eighth Circuit’s latest ruling and explicitly stated that the 2022 map should be used, ending our long saga with mid-decade redistricting.
The order (read it here) had a somewhat weary tone to it. SCOTUS already ruled on this – why are we here again? The District Court’s September 8 injunction was promptly stayed by this Court on September 10, in an order issued by the full Court without any noted dissent. That stay remains in effect. This Court’s September 10 stay order meant that the 2022 map would be used in the 2026 congressional election in Missouri, absent further order of this Court.
And after telling the circuit court they got it wrong, the Court pointed the finger at Denny Hoskins for taking a gamble for politics and willingly risking electoral confusion.
The Eighth Circuit panel dealt with Purcell by casting blame on the Missouri Supreme Court for its September 3 decision prohibiting use of the 2025 map… The Eighth Circuit’s application of Purcell was incorrect… in this case, the Missouri Supreme Court was not responsible for the late-breaking changes.
On the contrary, in an opinion back in May 2026, well before the primary election, the Missouri Supreme Court stated that the 2025 map would not take effect until approved by the voters in an intervening referendum, at least if the referendum petition was legally sufficient… So in the several-month period before the August primary election, the Missouri Secretary of State was well aware that conducting the August primary election with the 2025 map carried significant risks. The Secretary nonetheless chose to proceed with the 2025 map for the primary.
July 2025
· Senate Pro Tem Cindy O’Laughlin reacted with a “horror emoji” when a reporter asked if she wanted to do a mid-decade redistricting.
· House Speaker Jon Patterson said he wouldn’t support doing it.
· House Speaker Pro Tem Chad Perkins said, “We do redistricting every 10 years. We’ve already done that.”
MOScout’s Hallway Index: House One-Month-Out Prediction
I asked lobbyists, “How many Missouri House seats will Democrats gain net in November?” 21 replies…
RESULTS
1. No pick-ups… 0%
2. 1 or 2 seats… 19%
3. 3 - 5 seats… 42.8%
4. 6+ seats… 38.1%
Sample of Comments
· [6+] Wave on wave
· [6+] I think your ranges are too low.
· [1 or2] the blue wave becomes more muted as you get closer to the people.
· [3-5] Not buying the HRCC narrative that R's are down in a dozen or more seats that is floating around Jeff City. Expectation setting at its finest. Also, we have too much history to suggest that democrats will muck this up and fail to reach their potential.
· [6+] With Trump working relentlessly on their behalf, from Iran/gas prices to data centers to corruption, House Dems will pick up several seats if they don’t f*ck it up. Of course, that’s a big if.
· A5 + Gas Prices + Trump = D +8
· [1 or 2] I'm not convinced the Democrats can put together the resources needed to take more than a couple of seats.
· Blood bath. Double digit losses for gop. Can’t outrun diesel and gas prices.
· [6+] Believe it when i see it - but trends sure seem to be blowing that way.
· I think the number is 6 or more. Anything below 6 is malpractice for D’s or somehow the Iran War is over and gas is back down to 3.50/gallon.
Who Won the Week?
Caleb Rowden – With the Supreme Court’s ruling, his 2022 map lives on. And, if Amendment 6 passes, it could have even more years ahead still.
Fred Wellman – The old map keeps his hopes alive – and a new poll from Remington Research bolsters his “winnability” argument.
Josh Hawley – Displays his nose for a populist issue by convening a Senate hearing that put Flock’s nationwide artificial intelligence surveillance network under bipartisan scrutiny.
Eric Burlison – Pushed the Feds to release a 70-year-old UFO recording he’s been seeking.
Find a downloadable version here.
Gubby Appts
Governor Mike Kehoe made several appointments…
· Joseph Blanner, Steve O’Loughlin, and Phil Torrisi were appointed to the Regional Convention and Visitors Commission.
· Kurt Witzel was appointed to the Missouri Wine and Grape Board.
· Ann Stackle was appointed to the State Rehabilitation Council.
· Beth Knes was reappointed to the Public School Retirement System of Missouri.
· Jennifer McCurrach, Ph.D., was appointed to the Committee for Professional Counselors.
$5K+ Contributions
Beverly PAC (pro-Mike Jones) - $50,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Beverly PAC - $50,000 from Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri-Kansas Area PAC.
Beverly PAC - $15,000 from NextGen North PAC.
Beverly PAC - $10,000 from MCR PAC.
Beverly PAC - $10,000 from PENN Entertainment Inc. (Wyomissing, PA).
Beverly PAC - $6,000 from Bootheel Values PAC.
Forward PAC (pro-Fogle) - $20,000 from DOUGPAC.
Senate Democratic Campaign Committee - $20,000 from DougPAC.
AshPac (pro-Aune) - $20,000 from Missouri Gaming PAC.
Real Action PAC (pro-Christ) - $10,000 from Anheuser Busch Companies.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $10,000 from Doug Russell.
Citizens For Missouri Courts - $50,000 from Blitz Bargett & Deutch LC.
Missouri Right to Life PAC - $10,000 from David Drury.
Show-Me Conservation PAC - $20,000 from John Beuerlein.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $8,400 from Citizens for Claire Heinrich.
Missouri Voter Project - State PAC - $12,000 from Missouri AFL-CIO.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $7,500 from Steele for Missouri.
Jason Maki for Platte County - $25,000 from Parents for Safer Streets PAC.
CN-MO PAC - $50,000 from Southern Glazer's Wine and Spirits of Missouri (Miami, FL).
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Sen. Joe Nicola, Lauren Arthur, Steve Carroll, Penny Hubbard, Justin Hill, and Walt Bivins.
Sunday: David Sweeney, Richard Moore, Becky Ruth, and Paul Wagner.