MOScout Daily Update: CD-2 Poll and What It Means - Mosley’s Defamation Suit - The Hit on Fogle? and more…
CD-2 Poll and What It Means
Politico Score ran a blurb about a tight poll in CD-2 where Congresswoman Ann Wagner is seeking re-election. She’s challenged by Democrat Fred Wellman. The article linked to a poll by Remington Research which has some interesting implications for the state of that race – and also for some legislative races.
The poll was conducted September 14 and 15. It had 565 respondents and used the 2022 map. (NOTE: we’re likely to hear from the Supreme Court as early as today with a final ruling on which congressional map will be in place for this election.) The 2025 map would make this district redder.
Here’s what the poll shows…
Wagner is in a real fight. The race within the margin of error in both the generic ballot and the actual horse race.
If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican
candidate or the Democratic candidate?
Republican: 46%
Democrat: 47%
Undecided: 7%
The candidates in the General Election for U.S. Congress are the Republican Ann Wagner,
the Democrat Fred Wellman and the Libertarian Brandon Daugherty. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Ann Wagner: 43%
Fred Wellman: 42%
Brandon Daugherty: 3%
Undecided: 12%
Wellman is unknown. Wellman is tied while remaining almost entirely undefined. 65% have no opinion of him – including 47% of Democrats. This cuts both ways. He gets 42%, yet the generic Democrat gets 47%. That means he has room to grow. Still, Wagner has much more money and has started running ads tying Wellman to transgender policies. The odds are that he’ll be defined on her terms rather than his.
Trump is underwater in crucial battleground areas. With the caveat that looking at subgroups in crosstabs can be misleading, it’s hard to not see Donald Trump’s wilting popularity as a point of vulnerability: Dems may successfully tie GOP candidates to his unpopular policies (Iran war, high gas and food prices, ballroom, ill-trained ICE, soaring deficit), but perhaps just as important, turnout from Trump voters may be depressed, aiding Dems.
In the St. Louis County portion of 2022 CD-2…
What is your opinion of Donald Trump?
Favorable: 40%
Unfavorable: 56%
No opinion: 4%
In the St. Charles County portion of 2022 CD-2…
What is your opinion of Donald Trump?
Favorable: 43%
Unfavorable: 51%
No opinion: 6%
New hot buttons. The poll also sheds some light on the issues of Flock cameras and data centers.
· Voters oppose local-government use of Flock cameras 50%–25%. Opposition leads among Democrats and nonpartisans and even among Republicans, 38%–34%.
· A data-center moratorium has plurality support, 42%–33%, but it is not as clean-cut. Democrats support it 63%–24%; Republicans oppose it 43%–26%. Women support it 48%–27%, while men narrowly oppose it 39%–37%.
Mosley Sues Rival for Defamation
Joe Holleman reports on Sen. Angela Mosley suing Shonte Harmon-Young for defamation. Harmon-Young is an ally of County Councilwoman Shalonda Webb with whom Mosley has feuded.
See the suit – which asks for damages of $1 million – here.
Defendant published the following statements of purported fact about Plaintiff, including but not limited to:
a. “She said it with her own mouth that she wanted to destroy Brian’s chances of winning…”
b. “Sam Page then stepped in and paid for her to do it…”
c. “That family sells their souls to the highest bidder… They’ve been doing it for 30 years…”
d. “made her look as stupid as she really is…”
e. “Sam Page asked her to and they have been his lap dogs…”
Senate 30: The Hit on Fogle?
Republican consultant Brett Dinkins hints where the GOP strategy in Senate 30 might be headed writing on Facebook that “Betsy Fogle faces a distinct policy vulnerability among moderate, independent, and swing voters in her campaign for the Missouri State Senate due to the explicit progressive affiliations hosted on her official website. Fogle has been actively pushing volunteer opportunities for national activist groups, including Black Voters Matter and Ohio Progressive Action Leaders, tying Fogle directly to far-left national agendas, extreme institutional positions, and divisive figures that sharply contrast with the preferences of suburban swing voters in Missouri. These organizations represent the radical left agenda on public safety, law enforcement, and criminal justice policy…”
RIP Bill Smith
From his obituary: Bill Jack Smith, age 86, of Jefferson City, Mo., passed away Tuesday, September 22, 2026...
Shortly after returning home from the military, a blind date introduced him to Janet Kathleen Donnell. They were married on March 25, 1967, in Cole Camp, Mo., and built a life together that would span nearly 60 years…
In retirement, he went on to begin a second career at the Missouri State Capitol, ultimately serving for 25 years in the Missouri Senate as Sergeant at Arms. It was work he genuinely enjoyed. Bill thrived amid the daily rhythm of the Senate Chamber and took pride in helping things run smoothly, whether coordinating with senators and staff, assisting visitors, or tending to the countless details that accompanied each legislative session…
Bill was intelligent without needing to prove it, knowledgeable on a variety of subjects, and someone whose quiet, respectable nature earned the admiration of those around him. He could carry on a conversation about nearly anything, but he was just as content to listen, observe and take in what was happening around him.
Visitation will be held from 11:00 a.m. until 12:00 p.m. Saturday, September 26, 2026 at Wesley United Methodist Church. Funeral services will be conducted at 12:00 p.m.
Judgeship Apps
· Among the applicants for the vacancy on the Missouri Court of Appeals, Western District, created by the retirement of Judge Anthony Rex Gabbert is former Rep. Tim Flook. See the list of applicants here.
· Among the applicants for the vacancy on the Missouri Court of Appeals, Eastern District, created by the retirement of Judge Philip Hess is U.S. Attorney Tom Albus. See the list of applicants here.
Lobbyist Registrations
Ron Berry and Cassandra Allana Henderson added MO Health and Wellness.
$5K+ Contributions
KERI PAC (pro-Ingle) - $60,000 from DougPAC.
Heart of SGF PAC (pro-Stinnett) - $50,000 from Conservative Leadership for SE Missouri.
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from Jedidiah Momot.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Evan Fritts.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Jeremy Davis.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Mark Pomerenke.
American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Mark Long.
Missouri River PAC - $20,000 from Kevin Oneil.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Dean VanSchoiack.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $6,550 from Go West For Missouri.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $27,400 from AshPac.
Best Start for Kids STL - $30,000 from Children's Funding Accelerator (Washington, DC).
Missouri Health Plan Association PAC - $25,000 from Elevance Health, Inc. (Cincinnati, OH).
Missouri Right to Life PAC - $8,000 from Beth Landgraf.
Stop the Ban - $11,066 from Abortion Action Missouri.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Jeff Roe, Katie Reichard Eiken, Gordon Reel, Mark Schwartz, and Bryan Spencer.
Condolences
To Bill Webster on the death of his son, Jonathan. See the obituary here.