MOScout Daily Update: MO Gas Prices $4+ - Blue Wave Scenario - MHDC Draft Changes - Gardner Hearing and more…
Missouri Gas Prices
According to AAA, Missouri’s average gas price today is $4.18. Nearly every county has an average price above $4. And if you’re in Bates County, the average is $4.30/gallon.
Blue Wave Scenario
One former building denizen writes in to sketch out the “Blue Wave” scenario potentially unfolding…
· The last Democratic wave was 2018, so essentially zero House Republicans have run in a Dem wave… Compared to 2018, the current map has more districts that went Trump-Biden-Harris (or Trump by a lot-Trump by a few points), so the battleground is also larger than in 2018. 14 GOP-held districts were Trump+10 or less in '24. HRCC can carpet-bomb 5 or 10 districts and play in 20, but they can't carpet-bomb 20 seats enough to fend off a D+10 shift in environment (R+2 to D+8ish).
· My prediction is that Dems flip at least one district not on MOScout's 2026 power rankings—possibly two. A place like HD89 (Romney by 35+ in 2012, Trump+2 in 20 & 24) seems ripe for a disconnect between the Jeff City crowd, who see a sensible adult incumbent with lots of $, and voters, who are mad as hell at POTUS and see some bum with an (R) by his name.
· Similar dynamic in HD96 (which you correctly have on the watchlist): when your Harris+5 seat turns into a Generic Dem+15 seat, look out.
· Biggest wild card IMO is if the GOP loses serious ground with non-college whites. They mostly stuck with Trump in 18/20/24; if that changes, based on gas prices + tariffs + data centers, it unlocks a whole new part of the map—places like HD10 that have not been competitive in years. Polling suggests it's happening (SLU poll had Trump underwater in MO—a first?), but polls have missed on non-college whites before. I'll believe it when I see it on November 3.
NRA Endorsements
Among the list of NRA endorsements are several on my PowerRankings list. And I wonder if the NRA endorsement could hurt Republicans in purple-ish districts.
· House 94 – Maryellen Murphy.
· House 96 – Brad Christ.
· House 100 – Philip Oehlerking.
· House 101 – Ben Keathley.
· House 110 – Niles Stephens.
MHDC Drops Minority and Green Requirements
The Missouri Housing Development Commission’s proposed 2028 allocation plan includes some changes likely to please conservatives. See the draft here. It would eliminate minority-owned and women-owned business participation goals, and also make green-building standards optional for new construction seeking housing tax credits.
· The draft deletes language encouraging 10% minority-owned and 5% women-owned business participation. It also removes the agency’s explicit commitment to consider whether projects help overcome segregation when awarding funding.
· On construction, developers would no longer have to meet an approved green-building standard under the plan. Instead, certification would earn one point in the competition for credits.
The changes are not final. A public hearing is scheduled for October 15, with written comments due October 16.
Flock Camera Changes
The Wall Street Journal reports on a U.S. Senate hearing on Flock. The Atlanta-based company has made changes to the information users provide when explaining their searches, Flock’s chief legal officer said in a letter to Sen. Josh Hawley, a Republican from Missouri. Flock has said its cameras scan about 20 billion plates a month. While users have always been required to justify their searches of the company’s database, the information was entered “in a free-text field,” yielding answers that weren’t always specific, the company said in the letter viewed by The Wall Street Journal.
Flock has now added a drop-down menu with standardized categories modeled after the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s data-reporting system. Law-enforcement searches will require a case number in order to conduct a search by the end of the year, although the system can be bypassed in an emergency, Flock said.
Gardner SCOMO Hearing
The Missouri Supreme Court will hear arguments at 9AM today over whether former St. Louis Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner should be disbarred for using $5,000 from her office’s contingent fund to reimburse herself for costs imposed in her previous disciplinary case.
SCOMO Blog explains that a disciplinary panel found one ethics violation but recommended only a reprimand. The Chief Disciplinary Counsel is seeking disbarment, while Gardner argues she committed no violation and relied on a lawyer’s written opinion that reimbursement was permissible.
· “This case presents two questions for this Court – whether Gardner violated the rules of professional conduct and, if so, what discipline, if any, is appropriate.”
Help Wanted
Department of Corrections seeks General Counsel. This position oversees the legal matters of the department including, advising the department’s executive members on the legal obligations that would impact the department’s operations; crafting and preparing the department’s legal strategies in response to litigation; review contracts and interagency agreements; draft and review legislative proposals and fiscal notes.
Lobbyist Registrations
Pat Leopold added Hill’s Pet Nutrition, Inc.
$5K+ Contributions
Stop the Ban - $700,000 from Open Society Policy Center (Washington, DC).
Stop the Ban - $100,000 from PROMO.
Her Health, Her Future PAC - $10,000 from Sieve Contractors Inc.
Vote Yes on Amendment 6 - $7,500 from USW LOCAL169G PAC.
Local 41 Political Action Fund - $12,450 from Missouri PAC Federal Committee.
Missouri Voter Project - State PAC - $100,000 from Missouri Wins Investor Network.
Heartland Action PAC - $10,000 from Karen rock Construction, Inc.
Evergy Employee PowerPAC - Missouri - $20,000 from Evergy Employee PowerPAC – Missouri.
Missouri Voter Project - State PAC - $10,000 from Doug PAC.
Vote Yes on Amendment 6 - $16,872 from Laborers Union Local 662.
Committee To Elect Steve Ehlmann - $25,000 from Build St. Louis PAC, INC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Matt Thompson, Harry Otto, and Terry Witte.