Budget Hole Emerging?

Ten weeks into the new fiscal year a disturbing trend is impacting state revenue.  Individual income tax receipts are lagging.  In August they declined 1.69% compared to August 2017.  As of the close of business Tuesday, individual income tax receipts were 6.5% lower than a year ago, $64 million less. 

This is surprising considering that the economy is at full employment.  One would expect to see gains in individual income tax receipts.  Furthermore, the stock market remains near highs, and capital gains can sometimes drive tax receipts as well.

And sales tax receipts are still showing growth – up 5.25% over last year at this time.

Perhaps there’s some anomaly to account for this.  But to seeing a hole this size, this early is concerning.

MO Poll: Educated Women Down on Trump

This poll was being passed around the internets yesterday.  I found the Trump approval numbers interesting.  They show a pattern emerging here in Missouri which mirrors national findings.

The Washington Post wrote about this a month ago.  See it here.  And see the stunning chart that accompanies it here. 

It shows how white men without college degrees fled the Democratic Party in 2008 with the election of Barack Obama.  They haven’t returned.  And now white women with college degrees are exiting the Republican Party with the election of Donald Trump.

This poll finds a similar demographic split in Missouri.

Trump’s approval among white men without college degrees is net +26 (56% approve, 30% disapprove); and his approval among white women with college degrees is nearly opposite: -16 (38% approve, 54% disapprove).

Sixteen Thirty Fund Gives $3M to Minimum Wage Campaign

Sixteen Thirty Fund – a Washington DC dark money organization on the left side of the political spectrum – sent a $3 million check to Raise Up Missouri over the weekend.  That’s the campaign committee for the November ballot issue to raise the minimum wage.  They had previously invested $500,000 in the campaign.

Politico did a story on Sixteen Thirty Fund last month.  They have been active all across the country.  See it here.  See the Sixteen Thirty Fund website here; it will tell you nothing.

I polled the minimum wage issue last month and it appears to be in good shape – especially now with its budget filled out.