Inside the Numbers

As might be expected, this poll shows huge partisan divides among Missourians.

·         70% of Republicans think the country is headed in the right direction while 85% of Democrats say it’s on the wrong track.

·         84% of Republicans approve of Donald Trump’s job performance, and 87% of Democrats disapprove.

·         51% of Republicans think illegal immigration is the country’s biggest problem, but Democrats (35%) worry most about rising healthcare costs.

·         79% of Democrats agree that the federal government should be acting to reduce the threat of global warming, while only 32% of Republicans agree.

What It Means

In Jefferson City, Republicans and Democrats will find greatest success in working together on technical issues and pragmatic problems, but once ideology enters the frame, it gets real hard.  The bases of the two parties have two different worldviews.

Former Rep. Kevin Corlew has formed a committee to run for AG in 2024.  See the paperwork here.

Pearce Chairs Fitz Transition

The press release: Incoming Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick today announced his Transition Team. This team will provide guidance and expertise on policy priorities and initiatives… Advisors: Sarah Steelman, Former State Treasurer; Clint Zweifel, Former State Treasurer; Wendell Bailey, Former State Treasurer; Sen. Bob Onder, R-St. Charles; Paul Curtman, Former State Representative, Financial Advisor; Sarah Mills, Clay County Public Administrator; Rick Holton Jr., Investor & Founder, Cultivation Capital; Brian Milner, President, Missouri Community College Association; Mark Milton, Tax Attorney; Locke Thompson, Cole County Prosecutor; and Mark C. Thompson, Vice Chairman, Country Club Bank… Chair David Pearce will continue as Senior Policy Coordinator in the Treasurer’s Office, a role he has held since 2017. Prior to his work in the Treasurer’s Office, Pearce worked as a banker at the First Community Bank of Warrensburg and served in the General Assembly for 14 years.

Follow-Up on Kirby

I wrote yesterday that David Kirby will be joining the State Auditor’s office.  He’ll be tackling legislative affairs, taking the spot of Joan Gummels who is retiring.

Kirby to Galloway

David Kirby, who served as Claire McCaskill’s campaign manager, is joining the State Auditor’s office.  He starts January 14, and will be serving as “senior counsel.”

Before McCaskill’s campaign, Kirby worked at Lewis Rice for few years, and before that he was with the Attorney General’s office.

Barnes Signs Off

On his blog (see it here), Rep. Jay Barnes offers some final thoughts as he’s termed out.… “In the Trump era, the national Republican Party has become dangerously close to a cult – with followers willing to throw aside policies, foreign and domestic, that had defined the party for decades, ignore reams of outright lies from the leader, and stand quietly aside as basic human decency is tossed away as a fundamental principle of presidential leadership.

MOScout Poll: Approval Numbers

Survey conducted January 2 through January 3, 2019. 812 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.4%.

Q: Do you think Missouri is heading in the right direction or do you think it is going off on the wrong track?

Right direction: 36%

Wrong track: 40%

Not sure: 24%

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mike Parson is doing as Governor?

Approve: 43%

Disapprove: 27%

Not sure: 30%

I want to say one word to you. Just one word. Hemp.

Cannabis advocate Eapen Thampy posts on Facebook: Today I drove to Warrensburg MO to meet some large landowners and speak about hemp agriculture...tomorrow I'll be in Brookfield/Chillicothe doing the same thing. In the last several months I've been to Dexter, Cape Girardeau, Jackson, Saint Genevieve, Vandalia, Arnold, Hallsville, Harrisonville, Marshall, Sedalia, St. Joseph, Fulton, Lexington, and a dozen other places with the same message -- Hemp is here to shake things up. The amount of acreage that will transition from other uses to hemp agriculture in Missouri is millions of acres. It's unreal thinking about what's coming.

Kurt to Take Over Children’s Division

Word is that David Kurt will be the new Director of the Missouri Children’s Division.  He’s from Kansas.  According to his LinkedIn, Kurt has been at the Kansas Department For Children and Families for the past seventeen years.  His most recent job title was “Interim Director, Child Support Services.”

One MOScouter says “This is big news in child welfare world, and for policy related to kids...”

Clinton Depletes Reserve Fund

Auditor Nicole Galloway released an audit of Clinton County (see it here) showing that “the cash balance of the county's General Revenue Fund went from $512,000 at the end of 2016 to a projected balance of only $264 at the end of 2018…”  Yikers!

Clinton County is represented by Sen. Dan Hegeman and Rep. Jim Neely.

Schmitt Hires Stevens

The press release: “[I]ncoming Attorney General Eric Schmitt announced Cristian Stevens will serve as Deputy Attorney General for Criminal Litigation.  Stevens also previously served as an assistant United States Attorney for 15 years.  As an assistant U.S. attorney, Stevens prosecuted violent crimes, including homicides, as well as narcotics, white-collar and civil rights violations, from the earliest stages of investigation through appeal.  Currently, Stevens is a partner at Armstrong Teasdale…

In 2014, Stevens spearheaded the federal investigation of the high-profile officer-involved shooting in Ferguson, Missouri.  The investigation’s report has become the definitive account of the shooting.  For his work, Stevens received the U.S. Attorney General’s Award for Exceptional Service in 2015…. As Deputy Attorney General for Criminal Litigation, Stevens will oversee the criminal litigation divisions of the Missouri Attorney General’s Office, including Medicaid Fraud, Criminal Appeals, and Public Safety.”

What It Means

This is the second big hire from Schmitt, nabbing a lot of experience from the US Attorneys’ Office.   It bodes well for the professionalism that he’s attracting to the office.

Venue Tops Tort Reform Wish List

Among the legislative items that didn’t get passed in the Republicans’ landmark session last year was “venue reform.”  It’s considered to be a top prize for this session among those with tort reform on their agenda.  MOChamber’s Dan Mehan hits the issue in the latest publication of their magazine.  See it here.

Smith Gets Budget

Short-circuiting any prolonged speculation over who would replace Scott Fitzpatrick as House Budget Chair, Speaker Elijah Haahr named Rep. Cody Smith to the post on Friday. 

What It Means

Smith may have a six-year reign in the powerful position. It would provide the House with great stability and increasing expertise and experience, potentially improving their negotiating outcomes with the Senate on budget matter.  But of course, it’s not set in stone.  Some already imagine Smith serving four years as Budget Chair and then hopping over to become speaker…

The Next Budget Problem

Some market watchers believe that the flattening yield curve is signaling vulnerabilities to continued economic growth.  Regardless, the next recession is not a matter of “if,” but “when.”  And the state’s tepid tax revenue collection during these times of solid GDP growth have stirred fears that the next downturn will be particularly difficult on the state budget.

It’s worth revisiting Auditor Nicole Galloway’s “Stress Test” audit from a year ago, January 2018.  See it here.

The Next Domino – House Budget Chair

Talk immediately shifted to the prospects for filling the Budget Chair position.  Rep. Cody Smith was named vice-chair earlier this year, setting him up to take over AFTER Fitz was termed in 2020.  The consensus among Budget Committee watchers I spoke to is that Smith is still the favorite for the job. But other names mentioned are: David Wood, Robert Ross and Kathy Swan.   

Here’s one insider: “Smith probably gets the nod to replace Fitzpatrick [but Wood’s] experience will make Elijah Haahr’s decision tougher than most realize.”

Bax to AFL

Greta Bax, former chief of staff to Jake Hummel, starts today with the Missouri AFL-CIO.  She’ll be taking over the dislocated worker program and the manufacturing apprenticeship programs.  It’s a nice hire as Bax was one of the best staffers in the building.

Schmitt Taps Albus for Top Spot

Word is that Eric Schmitt will be installing Tom Albus as his First Assistant Attorney General.  As First Assistant, Albus will be Schmitt’s top lieutenant.

Albus has served in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for 16 years after starting his career with a brief three-year stint at Bryan Cave.

The choice of a non-political career attorney with a wide breadth of prosecutorial experience will likely be cheered by good government folks.

Pro-Parson PAC

Over the past week over $425K has come into Uniting Missouri, the pro-Mike Parson PAC. That brings the total large contributions into the PAC since its inception in July to nearly $1 million.

What It Means

The hallmark of statewide campaigns in the post-Sauer Amendment world is third-party PACs that allow for unlimited campaign contributions.  The candidates can raise money for these PACs, but can’t control them or coordinate with how they spend their money.

Parson raising big money early will lessen the likelihood of a primary challenge.

Catalyst Adds Lobbyist to DC Team

The press release: Danny Pfeifer and Greg Porter today announced Ashley Montenegro is joining Catalyst as a government affairs specialist in the firm's growing multistate and attorneys general practice in Washington, D.C.  She most recently was finance director for the Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) and the Rule of Law Defense Fund, RAGA's C4.

“We are excited that Ashley is joining our growing government relations presence in Washington, D.C.,” said Danny Pfeifer, Catalyst founder... 

Montenegro served as the finance director for the Republican Attorneys General Association where she helped quadruple their fundraising totals over the past six years.She is well versed in government relations and political campaigns having managed relationships with more than 400 corporate and individual clients during her career.

Happening Now: CLEAN Changing Behavior

Since CLEAN took effect last week, I’ve bumped into a number of legislators who have implemented systems to segregate their work communications from their personal communications; it’s a sign they’re taking the records retention laws seriously.

This account is no longer active.

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I have updated my cellphone. For all messages concerning state business, please send to XXX-XXX-XXXX. Please update your records. All such communications will be maintained consistent with the retention and transparency requirements provided by law.