MOScout Weekly Poll - Greitens Opinion March 3
Missouri Survey of 800 Likely Mid Term Voters
Conducted February 28-March 1, 2018
By Pulse Opinion Research
From February 28 through March 1, 2018 Pulse Opinion Research conducted a survey of 800 likely midterm voters in Missouri.
The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3.5% percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. This means that an identical survey conducted under the same circumstances would generate a result within the margin of sampling error 19 times out of 20.
The survey was conducted using an established automated polling methodology. For 75% of the sample calls were placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that insures appropriate geographical representation. Twenty five percent (25%) of the sample was conducted via online surveys of those individuals who use a cell-phone as their primary telephone. After the calls and on-line surveys were completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.
The population targets were based upon census bureau data, a series of screening questions to determine likely voters, and other factors. Pulse Opinion Research determines its partisan weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account voting history, national trends, and recent polling.
1*Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Eric Greitens?
29% Favorable
53% Unfavorable
14% You have no opinion
4% Not sure
2*How much have you read, seen or heard recently about Governor Eric Greitens – a lot, just a little, or nothing at all?
76% A lot
19% Just a little
4% Nothing at all
1% Not sure
3* (Only those who answered “a lot” or “just a little” to question 2) Thinking about what you've seen, read or heard. Was the information you saw, read or heard generally positive, negative or neutral?
8% Positive
72% Negative
14% Neutral
5% Not sure
4* Do you think Governor Eric Greitens should resign from office?
46% Yes
37% No
17% Not sure
See the full crosstabs in an Excel spreadsheet here: MOScout Crosstabs - March 3 Poll
A Sunday List: Black Swans of 2018
Earlier this week, I wrote about events that folks expect to influence the coming year. Here’s a list of contarian guesses. Things that are very unlikely to happen yet could shake things up if one of them did materialize.
- Josh Hawley drops out of U.S. Senate race and Governor Eric Greitens quickly becomes the consensus Republican nominee.
- Rex Sinquefield forcefully re-enters political giving arena with a huge independent expenditure on behalf of Rep. Paul Curtman’s auditor bid.
- Scandal grips the governor’s office (pick your scenario: Misson Continues donor list investigation, Confide investigation, a tragedy while Greitens is out of state attending a political function), and talk starts about a 2020 primary challenge.
- Sen. Rob Schaaf (and others) shut down the Senate. It changes the narrative of the Senate pro tem race, as Republicans decide it’s time to change the Senate rules to prevent a minority of senators from slowing chamber proceedings.
- Several unrelated factors (pension liability, fed tax cut hit, state tax cut phase-in, stock market correction) unexpectedly combine to create a budget crisis and move credit rating agencies to put Missouri’s AAA rating on downgrade “watch.”