A Sunday List: Black Swans of 2018

Earlier this week, I wrote about events that folks expect to influence the coming year. Here’s a list of contarian guesses.  Things that are very unlikely to happen yet could shake things up if one of them did materialize.


  1. Josh Hawley drops out of U.S. Senate race and Governor Eric Greitens quickly becomes the consensus Republican nominee.


  1. Rex Sinquefield forcefully re-enters political giving arena with a huge independent expenditure on behalf of Rep. Paul Curtman’s auditor bid.


  1. Scandal grips the governor’s office (pick your scenario: Misson Continues donor list investigation, Confide investigation, a tragedy while Greitens is out of state attending a political function), and talk starts about a 2020 primary challenge.


  1. Sen. Rob Schaaf (and others) shut down the Senate. It changes the narrative of the Senate pro tem race, as Republicans decide it’s time to change the Senate rules to prevent a minority of senators from slowing chamber proceedings.


  1. Several unrelated factors (pension liability, fed tax cut hit, state tax cut phase-in, stock market correction) unexpectedly combine to create a budget crisis and move credit rating agencies to put Missouri’s AAA rating on downgrade “watch.”