Earlier this week, I wrote about events that folks expect to influence the coming year. Here’s a list of contarian guesses. Things that are very unlikely to happen yet could shake things up if one of them did materialize.
- Josh Hawley drops out of U.S. Senate race and Governor Eric Greitens quickly becomes the consensus Republican nominee.
- Rex Sinquefield forcefully re-enters political giving arena with a huge independent expenditure on behalf of Rep. Paul Curtman’s auditor bid.
- Scandal grips the governor’s office (pick your scenario: Misson Continues donor list investigation, Confide investigation, a tragedy while Greitens is out of state attending a political function), and talk starts about a 2020 primary challenge.
- Sen. Rob Schaaf (and others) shut down the Senate. It changes the narrative of the Senate pro tem race, as Republicans decide it’s time to change the Senate rules to prevent a minority of senators from slowing chamber proceedings.
- Several unrelated factors (pension liability, fed tax cut hit, state tax cut phase-in, stock market correction) unexpectedly combine to create a budget crisis and move credit rating agencies to put Missouri’s AAA rating on downgrade “watch.”