MOScout Daily Update: Tremors from Humphreys News

STL Approves

In the large contributions there’s $75K going to STL Approves.  That’s a campaign committee (treasurer: Matt Vianello; deputy treasurer: Mike Pridmore) supporting Prop D in St. Louis City to “establish an open, non-partisan system for municipal elections.”  It would make St. Louis like Kansas City with a non-partisan primary and a general election between the top two candidates.

MOScout Daily Update: Humphreys Contra HB 126 - Greitens to Navy - Tornado Hits JCity - Cleaver on Impeachment and more....

Tornado Hits Jefferson City

Politico Jonathon Ratliff on Twitter around 1:30AMWe are safe but w/o power. The tornado seemed to have just missed us. By flashlight I can see debris from downtown in our yard (at least 3 miles away).The damage downtown is immense. Many buildings are completely destroyed. Our thoughts & prayers are w/ everyone in our community.

MOScout Daily Update: WSJ on How MO Lost CZ-USA Expansion - Osmack Announces in Senate 15 - Fitz Out in Senate 3? - Axios on 2020 Turnout and more...

More Senate 3 Talk: Fitz Out, Henderson Locking It Down

Tipster says: “Paul Fitzwater is not running; he’s content serving on the Parole Board.”

And… [Rep. Mike] Henderson will make an official announcement in July but has already secured endorsements from the 'Who's Who' of donors, activists, and elected officials throughout the district including all current Reps (Wright, Dinkins, Gannon, and McGirl) and former Reps Fitzwater, Black, and former Sen. Engler.”

MOScout Daily Update: Conservative Caucus Feedback - Senate 3 Feedback - Haahr's Last Session - Anti-Clean Implications and more....

Follow-Up On Henderson in Senate 3

After I wrote yesterday that Rep. Mike Henderson’s leadership on the “turnaround” education bill has folks talking up his future in Senate 3…

·         One lobbyist told me that Rep. Mike Henderson IS running in Senate 3, and “seems stronger than [Paul] Fitzwater to me.”

·         A second concurring that “Henderson has geographical advantage.”

MOScout Daily Update: Conservative Caucus 2021 - KC Mayoral Poll - Abortion Politics - Colona Makes Panel and more...

Henderson in Senate 3?

Although the twin goals of “education reform” – charter expansion and Educational Savings Accounts – failed to gain traction this session, Rep. Mike Henderson’s HB 604, School Turnaround Act, passed.

One hallway source says it’s a feather in Henderson’s cap: It obviously evolved into an omnibus education package that included changes to school start date, school transfer policies for unaccredited districts, Schatz’s hardship transfer bill, and the charter school’s lottery protocol language. Henderson showed a lot of leadership and his name has been thrown out as a possible replacement for Sen. Gary Romine (Senate 3) in 2020.

MOScout Daily Update: Franks Resigns - Parson to Re-Start LIHTC Anyway? - Why Compromise is Hard - Watching Senate PACS - Galloway Hits Parson on 1A Gaffe and more...

Will Abortion Law Help Dems in Suburbs?

In the rotunda yesterday, one lobbyist told me that the passage of the heartbeat bill will exacerbate the Republicans’ problem with white educated women in the suburbs.  This demographic has been turned off by the president uncouth behavior.  But the stakes have been raised.  It’s no longer style: bringing “locker room talk” to the Oval Office.  Now it’s policy: a right they’ve had that their daughter won’t have.

The earliest test case will be the special election in House 99 in November…

MOScout Daily Update: Senate Passes Abortion Bill (No PQ) - Conservative vs GOP - Rehder Contra CC - Blues Lose, Blues Win and more....

Blues Lose in STL, Win in JCity

The legislature TAFP’d Freshman Rep. Jon Patterson’s stadium funding bill yesterday.  It provides revenue for the Enterprise Center, Truman Sports Complex, and Bartle Hall. Sen. Mike Cierpiot was the Senate handler. The lobbying effort was led by Brian Grace and Kate Casas at Nexus Group and Becky Lohmann and David Willis at Catalyst. This bill is one of the heaviest lifts accomplished this session that wasn’t a priority of the Republican caucuses.

MOScout Daily Update: Senate Filibuster Ends - Heartbeat Bill Today (New Filibuster to Start) - Thinking About Next Session and more..

Conservatives Sit

After 26 hours of filibustering the GM incentives bill, the Senate’s Conservative Caucus retreated.  Early yesterday morning word started to bubble that the filibuster threatened to crowd out other priorities, including the passage of the anti-abortion “heartbeat” bill.  Ultimately that threat – the time they were burning would reduce the chances of an anti-abortion bill passing – persuaded the Conservative Caucus to sit.

“Our desire to protect innocent human life was leveraged against us,” said Sen. Bob Onder on the Senate floor as the filibuster ended.

MOScout Daily Update: Senate Filibuster (Still Going) - No Cort in CD-2 - Anti-Clean Worth the PQ? and more...

Happening Now….

Senate filibuster, started about 17 hours ago.  The Conservative Caucus is stopping Senate business from occurring. The first order of business – approving the Journal – has yet to be accomplished.  There is no end in sight right now. 

One Senate side observer made this prediction to me before session started yesterday: “I think it goes all night, we get nothing done, and the Gov calls us into special session next week.”

MOScout Weekender: Senate Conservatives' Message - WWTW - Job Approvals - Hallway Index and more...

Survey conducted May 8 through May 9, 2019. 984 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.3%.

Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as President?

Approve: 51%

Disapprove: 44%

Not sure: 5%

Q2: Do you approve or disapprove Mike Parson’s job performance as Governor?

Approve: 51%

Disapprove: 22%

Not sure: 27%

Q3: Do you approve or disapprove of Nicole Galloway’s job performance as State Auditor?

Approve: 41%

Disapprove: 15%

Not sure: 44%

MOScout Daily Update: Hoskins-Miller PDMP Rollercoaster - Gov Piggybackin' - Juden travel Investigation - CLEAN Contra Rowden - DACA this AM and more...

Gov’s GM Play

Governor Mike Parson is attempting to “piggyback” the relative popularity of GM incentives with their own legislative agenda, drawing annoyance from the legislature.

The package unveiled by the governor’s office included some items that have stalled so far this session, together with the tax credits for General Motors’ investment.

One hallway walker shrugged “that’s what politicians do.”

MOScout Daily Update: GM $$$ Day - PDMP Horn-Lock - Galloway Ask AG for 1A Opinion - Holsy for DACA - Hope for Hayden and more...

Galloway Asks for AG 1A Opinion

Auditor Nicole Galloway requested a legal opinion from the attorney general’s office to determine if the governor’s office can use the First Amendment to prevent disclosures required under the state Sunshine law.  Folks are assuming that the governor is redacting the information because they’re embarrassed by the amount of contact they’re having with lobbyists.  Either way it’s not a good look for the governor…

MOScout Daily Update: Hoskins Shakes a Fist - Merger Move Wilts - Clean Water Case on Docket - New Candidate Committees and more

Merger Effort Wilts

·         Supporters are reluctant to call it quits with one telling me not to write the obituary yet, and another saying, that “the support for merger and reform is not a 30-year flood that the municipal league can simply weather this time.  The issues of internal economic competition, rising costs of government, sub-standard police departments, dysfunctional municipal courts, and declining population will only get worse in the coming years.  A major shift is inevitable.”

·         But this feels like business as usual.  The villages get to keep their police departments, the big boxes get to keep munis bidding against each other, and the next reform group will start meeting in ten to twelve years.

MOScout Weekender: More Title IX Fallout? - Poll on Stenger - Hallway on Endgame - WWTW and more...

MOScout Weekly Poll: St. Louis County Poll

Survey conducted May 1 through May 2, 2019. 1,031 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.05%.

Which do you think is more corrupt: local government or state government?

Local government is more corrupt: 34%

State government is more corrupt: 29%

Not sure: 36%

MOScout Daily Update: GM Hops to Front of the Line - Crunch Time - Title IX Changes Dead - Revenues Wobble and more...

Driving Next Week: GM Jumps to Front of the Line

Legislative leaders indicated that they expect the Department of Economic Development to be working all weekend to hammer out a package of incentives to potentially bring a new huge investment to General Motor’s auto plant in Wentzville.

We’ll see it added to one of the many economic development bills already working their way through the process as early as Monday.

It hops to the front of the line of priority legislation.

MOScout Daily Update: Indictment Talk - The Unelecteds Club - Fast Track Stalls Again - House 99 Talk - Why Two McGee Letters and more...

The Unelecteds Club

Sam Page has taken over as the county executive of the largest county in the state.  He wasn’t elected to that position.

Neither was Governor Mike Parson, or Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe, or Attorney General Eric Schmitt, or State Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick

The upcoming 2020 cycles will put all these unelected incumbents on the ballot.  It will be interesting to see how they fare.  For the two (Parson and Page) who took over after a scandal, there’s an immediate sense of relief and a honeymoon period.  But that will fade as opposition campaigns rev up.