Sunday, July 31, 2016

A Tale of Two Polls

Yesterday the Post-Dispatch released its final statewide poll.  It showed everything pretty tight. See it here.

Governor

John Brunner – 23%

Eric Greitens – 21%

Catherine Hanaway – 21%

Peter Kinder – 18%

Undecided – 17%

Lieutenant Governor

Bev Randles – 35%

Mike Parson – 34%

Arnie Dienoff – 3%

Undecided – 28%

Secretary of State

John (Jay) Ashcroft – 65%

Will Kraus – 17%

Roi Chinn – 4%

Undecided – 14%

Attorney General

Josh Hawley – 38%

Kurt Schaefer – 37%

Undecided – 25%

Meanwhile see the MOScout Weekly Poll results here. (Please note ‎that I have switched pollsters this week due to conflicts of interest between my usual pollster, Remington Research, and their owner, Axiom Strategies.) It shows these races opening up…

Governor

Eric Greitens – 29%

John Brunner – 20%

Peter Kinder – 20%

Catherine Hanaway – 17%

Undecided – 15%

Lieutenant Governor

Bev Randles – 35%

Mike Parson – 28%

Arnie Dienoff – 6%

Undecided – 31%

Secretary of State

John (Jay) Ashcroft – 49%

Will Kraus – 18%

Roi Chinn – 5%

Undecided – 28%

Attorney General

Josh Hawley – 50%

Kurt Schaefer – 23%

Undecided – 27%

Differences

The Post-Dispatch poll was conducted July 23 – July 27; the MOScout poll was conducted July 29 – July 30.

The Post-Dispatch poll has a sample of 400 respondents, giving it a margin of error of +/- 5%; the MOScout poll has a sample of 897 respondents giving it a MOE of +/- 3.27%.

The Post-Dispatch poll was live interviews on both landlines and cellphones; the MOScout poll was robo-calls to landlines only.