Thursday, July 17, 2014

Republican House Primary Predictions

The updated Republican House Primary Guide can be found in the Special Reports section.  It’s here.  Below are my picks to win.  (House Democratic Primary and Senate Primary guide updates will follow in the next few days, and then a spreadsheet with all the winners listed, degree of confidence and notes.)


House 1 - Roger Parshall

House 3 - Nate Walker

House 7 - Mike Lair

House 14 - Kevin Corlew

House 20 - Bill E. Kidd

House 34 - Rebecca Roeber

House 41 - Randy Pietzman

House 47 - Chuck Basye

House 62 - Tom Hurst

House 98 - Shamed Dogam

House 102 - Kurt Bahr

House 103 - John D. Wiemann

House 106 - Chrissy Sommer

House 108 - Justin Hill

House 111 - Jason Jarvis

House 112 - Rob Vescovo

House 113 - Dan Shaul

House 120 - Shawn Sisco

House 125 - Warren Love

House 126 - Randy Pike

House 130 - Jeff Messenger

House 132 - Fred Ellison

House 139 - Jered Taylor

House 144 - Paul Fitzwater

House 148 - Holly Rehder

House 149 - Don Rone

House 151 - Tila Rowland Hubrecht

House 155 - Lyle Rowland

House 156 - Jeff Justus

House 157 - Mike Moon



Rumorville: Nixon Exploring MU Job?

Tipster: “Nixon is starting to work the MU President job.  I have heard from two people within the system that he is putting out feelers… It’s about a $500K/year gig….”



Gov and Wannabes

The St. Louis Regional Chamber’s Public Policy Speakers Series includes an appearance from Governor Jay Nixon (September 2), Auditor Tom Schweich (September 16), Catherine Hanaway (October 21), and Attorney General Chris Koster (November 6).  See the schedule here.



County Exec Race Turns Even Uglier

St. Louis County Executive Charlie Dooley whacks Steve Stenger in a new ad.  The mighty Jason Rosenbaum has it here.  Take a look.  The ad seems wildly unfair, saying that Stenger support sex trafficking.  But there may be worse hits out there, and if this is any indication what’s to come… wowsy…



Hummel Conflict of Interest

There’s no new ground being broken with Minority Leader Jake Hummel taking over a leadership position in the AFL-CIO.  There have been other cases before.  One observer cites Sen. Gina Walsh as being in a similar position. Still one wonders how obvious conflicts of interest will be played out.  When the AFL-CIO – which has been willing to endorse Republicans – is looking at swing district will Hummel swing those endorsements to the Dem side?  Will House Dems be PO-ed at him when the union backs Republicans over Dems?  Will HDCC fight as vigorously in those districts?



Messer Presser

In the continuing mystery of the disappearance of Lynn Messer, wife of lobbyist Kerry Messer, there will be a press conference at the Ste. Genevieve Sheriff’s Office this morning.  Here’s a flyer.



Middleton Executed

From the Post-Dispatch story: Convicted killer John Middleton was executed by lethal injection at 6:58 p.m. Wednesday following the failure of various appeals on his behalf in the courts. He was pronounced dead at 7:06 p.m…


Interesting to note: Sen. Kurt Schaefer handled the Middleton case when he was with the attorney general’s office.




From John Combest’s peerless morning links


Post-Dispatch notes that Congressman Lacy Clay’s “leadership PAC” made a $500 contribution to Joe Adams’ state representative campaign (House 86), where Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal is actively campaigning against Adams. See it here.


KSDK ran a feature on Sen. Eric Schmitt, and his son Stephen, with the recently signed hemp oil legislation.  See it here.
AP reports that Ronnie White was confirmed to the federal bench.  Read it here.



Extra Five Minutes?

If you have an extra five minutes today, here’s a fascinating Washington Post piece on a Kansas City pawn shop that has niche market buying professional athletes’ championship rings.  Read it here.



Lobbyist Registrations

From the Gate Way Group website:

Richard I. Martin added Accenture LLP; and deleted Asurion Corporation.



Fundraising Calendar

Today’s fundraising events from Mary Scruggs’ indispensable events calendar:

Rep. Todd Richardson Golf – Ozark Ridge Golf Course, Poplar Bluff.

Rep. Holly Rehder Shrimp Boil – The River House, Mississippi Landing, Scott City.



$5K+ Contributions

Missourians for Safe Transportation & New Jobs Inc - $25,000 from DLH Services Inc.

Missourians for Safe Transportation & New Jobs Inc - $10,000 from MO Truck PAC.

Missourians for Safe Transportation & New Jobs Inc – $10,000 from Construction & General Laborers Local Union NO 660.

Missourians for Safe Transportation & New Jobs Inc - $15,000 from Eastern MO Laborers District Council 3450.

MO Chamber PAC - $10,000 from Thirty & 141 LP.

NO On Amendment 5 - $5,839 from Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund Inc.

Connect KC - $25,000 from Heavy Constructors Association Industry Advancement Fund.

SEIU HCII Missouri PAC - $50,000 from SEIU International Union.

Committee to Elect Mavis Thompson - $15,370 from David Steward.



Happy Birthday

Happy birthdays to Schweich’s Jeffrey Earl (29), Richard Callow, lobbyist David Klarich, and Aschinger Electric’s Emily Martin.