Friday, August 10, 2012

MOScout Poll:  Statewide Races the Day After

This is what the starting line looks like.  August 8; 663 registered voters, likely to vote in November; Margin of error +/- 3.8%.  Full report and crosstabs on Monday.


US Senate

McCaskill 46.8%

Akin 47.7%

Undecided 5.5%



Nixon 52.7%

Spence 38.5%

Undecided 8.8%


Lieutenant Governor

Montee 45.4%

Kinder 45.6%

Undecided 9.0%


Secretary of State

Kander 37.2%

Schoeller 45.8%

Undecided 17%


Attorney General

Koster 46.2%

Martin  44.7%

Undecided 9.1%



Zweifel 44.6%

McNary 37.1%

Undecided 18.3%



Meet Your New Legislators: Contact List

I put an excel file up in the Special Reports today with contact information (phone and email) for those non-incumbent candidates who have no November race.  It is here.  The information is (I think) entirely from public sources.  This may morph into a kind of new legislator “cheat sheet” over the next four to five months.


And the Rep-elect profiles was updated here.



Inside St. Louis City Returns

I spent a little time yesterday scanning through the ward-by-ward breakdown of the St. Louis City voting results.



Congressman Russ Carnahan ran weaker than expected everywhere.  But if one place symbolized the difficulty of the day, it would be that Lacy Clay even took Carnahan’s home ward from him.  Clay won Ward 6 by a wide margin: 58%-40%



Judy Baker did okay on the city’s northside.  It could be attributed to the few weeks of good press she got in the St. Louis American, the black weekly.  But also to some investment of time there and some local state rep endorsements.


Susan Montee ran well all across the city beating the field.


Fred Kratky’s name ID helped him in some south side wards where he, or his wife, has been on the ballot for years.  But overall he was as weak as his campaign.  He placed 4th in the city behind Montee, Baker and Bill Haas.


Sara Lampe actually won a ward – Ward 18 in the central corridor.  It’s just plain hard to explain that anomaly.  She placed 5th overall just one percentage point ahead of unknown Jackie Townes McGee.


Senate 5

In Rep. Jamilah Nasheed’s win, there were two factors of significance: higher turnout in some northside wards, and better than expected (by me) performance from incumbent Sen. Robin Wright Jones throughout the district.


The key though, in the second factor was that Wright Jones appears to take more votes away from Rep. Jeanette Mott Oxford than Nasheed, especially on the south side where Oxford failed to win big anywhere.


Rep. Oxford did about as expected on the northside.  For example in Ward 21 where Lacy Clay decimated Russ Carnahan (92-6%), Oxford held her own at 11%


There were places in the central corridor, though, where Oxford should have played strongly, but Nasheed and Jones just ate her up.  In Ward 19 (Fox Theatre, Symphony, St. Louis University) the tallies were: Wright Jones 45%, Nasheed 41% and Oxford 13%.


In Ward 7 (Soulard area), Nasheed only won 23%.  But Wright Jones took 35% which held Oxford to under 50%.


Farther south in Ward 25 where the alderman Shane Cohn was Oxford’s biggest supporter, she only mustered 42%, with Nasheed at 31% and Wright Jones 27%.


And in Ward 11 (where former state Rep. Tom Villa is the alderman), Nasheed grabbed 18%, but Oxford was again held to under 50% because Wright Jones gobbled up 35%.


Perhaps Nasheed ran stronger than expected in the south because of her endorsements from prominent white politicians Mayor Francis Slay, Jennifer Joyce and Gregg Daly.  Wright Jones’ incumbency must have had a stronger pull than I expected.


All of this indicates that Ameren’s $5K infusion to Wright Jones was a much better investment than I (and others) thought at the time.



More Post-Primary Talk

How Meredith Won

On the Democratic side, one of the biggest upsets was Sue Meredith beating Rep. Tracy McCreery.  She had very little money in her campaign.  Meredith’s July report showed $7K on-hand, compared to McCreery’s $22K.


For starters, McCreery was only a state representative for one year.  And 70% of the district was new to her.


Meredith drew the contrast that she had lived at various places within the district throughout her life, while McCreery lived outside the district.


Plus Meredith was also able to claim the mantle of Harriett Woods.


Says one person who watched the campaign: “She is an old confidant of Sue Shear and Woods. That made it a race between someone who used to run with (those West County feminist icons) and someone from Ohio who used to work for someone (Joan Bray) who ran with them.”


This had a different observer saying that former state senator Bray was one of the primary election day’s “biggest losers.”  In addition to backing McCreery and losing, Bray was also supposedly behind some of the white progressives – like Ruth Ehresman (House 78 against Rep. Penny Hubbard) – who were schlacked.


Oh, also – Meredith “knocked on every door.”



House GOP Summer Caucus Bits

House Republicans met in St. Louis for their summer caucus.  Talk of the shock of Rep. Thomas Long being upset.


Every Republican statewide candidate (except Todd Akin) made an appearance.


Lobbyists Rodney Boyd, Brian Grace, Danny Pfeifer and Greg Porter with Incs Enterprise, Express Scripts and the towering Anheuser Busch hosted a private dinner for 60 members and their spouses.



FaceBook Status of the Day

Stephen Webber: At the midnight showing of the Campaign. Last time I was at a midnight show was Ace Ventura 2...



Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:


Irl L. Scissors added Chameleon Integrated Services, Protect Missouri Workers, and Gateway Government Relations.

James Booth deleted Inc.



$5K+ Contributions

Missourians for Fair and Impartial Courts Committee - $10,000 from SRC Holdings Corporation.

Committee to Re-Elect Judge Elliott - $7,500 from Richard Brent Elliott.

Committee to Re-Elect Judge Elliott - $15,000 from Richard Brent Elliott.




Happy birthdays to former Sen. Gary Nodler (62), Mindy Mazur, former Rep. Jason Grill.


Sunday: Rep. Vicki Schneider (55)