Thursday, August 9, 2012

Meet Your New Legislators

With the primary results in hand, there are several candidates who face no challenge (even from third-party candidates) in November.   Many of you face the task of “getting to know” these folks.  To assist that effort, their biographical information is in the Special Reports section of the website.

The rep-elects PDF may be viewed/downloaded/printed here.

The sen-elects PDF may be viewed/downloaded/printed here.

Why Long Lost

One of most shocking upsets Tuesday night was the defeat of Rep. Thomas Long.  It’s rare that incumbents can get knocked off.  Plus the Republican caucus usually closes ranks around incumbents effectively.   One observer says that in retrospect, it appears that Long was more concerned about running for leadership than re-election.  According to this person, he was far too vocal about his advocacy for MOBio and the MOSIRA legislation, than considering whether that was important for his district.

One Republican: “Hate to say it but you have to say Missouri Right to Life is a winner.  Huge scalp in Long.  Also responsible for the large margin in Senate 27 (Wallingford- Brandom).  House caucus may go squeamish on the next life sciences vote, and be reluctant to buck them.”

Another Republican: MRL was mixed at best.  They pounded Kevin Engler in House 116 and he rolled his tea party opponent.

Hang On on Calling House 87

A few Dems are telling me it’s a big mistake to write as if Rep. Stacey Newman has won House 87.  They note that it’s unsurprising to see small variations between the unofficial results and official results.  And then it’s equally common to see minor changes again during a recount.

In this case a swing or one or two votes will change the winner.

For example, in last cycle’s near-tie race John Rizzo initially had a six vote lead on election night.  That shrunk to three votes by the time they became official and then a mere one vote after the recount.

To illustrate the tentativeness of Newman’s one vote lead, one Dem imagined a not unrealistic scenario where Newman wins unofficially results, Carlson wins based on the official results, and Newman wins after the recount.  It could flip back and forth like that.

More Post-Primary Talk

MORE WINNERS

Chris Koster – With the Carnahans gone, Koster’s worst case scenario in 2016 is a one-on-one with Clint Zweifel.  Meanwhile across the aisle, Kinder’s defeat of Lager means that there’s no clear rival on the Republican GOP side.  And with Brunner blowing $8 million (Spence may follow this pattern), it will be harder for the GOP to convince a wealthy “outsider” candidate to take him on.

MORE LOSERS

Big Money – from Noranda to the large Lager donors to the Secret Committees, the huge infusions of cash had a mixed record at best.  The Conservative Values PAC spent $300K against Kinder and didn’t knock him off, but those involved may find themselves the subject of ethics complaints.  Will the six-figure patrons still put pen to check when their gatekeepers and gurus come calling?

Mike Parson – backed Scott Largent in Senate 31 with money ($37,500), and working his networks.

Kander to Donors: Big Money Coming to Schoeller

In Rep. Jason Kander’s day after appeal to donors he says that he expects the big checks to start flowing to his secretary of state opponent Rep. Shane Schoeller.

“We’ve kept our costs low and have held a cash advantage over the Republicans.  We expect this to change in the coming days as Schoeller will likely close the gap with just a few checks from some of Missouri’s mega-donors. These checks will be for hundreds of thousands of dollars. We’ve plotted out an aggressive strategy, but we’re going to need your help…”

eMailbag

On Roy Temple

“Your mention of Roy Temple got me thinking about records of futility. Temple has just sort of had a bad century. Ran Jean Carnahan’s losing campaign in 2002. Ran Bob Holden’s in 2004. Lost with Jeff Harris and Steve Gaw in 2008….”

On Ed Emery

“Ed Emery is not at all like Jason Crowell except that he has a clear conservative compass that he can articulate.  He is a deep thinker and wise intellectual, excellent writer and can articulate his principles convincingly, has a solid backbone, honesty and is a gentleman.  He will be an excellent and needed addition to the senate if his new colleagues will listen to him.”

Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:

Rodney Boyd, Brian Grace and Kelvin Simmons added Patek & Associates, and WIPRO Infocrossing.

$5K+ Contributions

Committee to Elect Ron Andrews - $6,010 from Ron Andrews.

RGA Missouri PAC - $1,500,000 from Republican Governors Association.

Missourians for Health and Education - $15,000 from JAD VII, LLC.

Kander for Missouri - $5,001 from Hoisting Engineers Local 513.

MO Petroleum Marketers + Convenience Store Assoc PAC - $200,000 from Cheyenne International LLC.

Cash Commentary

$200K from Cheyenne International looks poised to fight tobacco tax; and $1.5 million from RGA to help Spence against Nixon.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Lyndall Fraker (53) and former Rep. Brian Baker (39).