Wednesday, August 8, 2012


Senate: Akin 36%; Brunner 30%; Steelman 29.2%

Dem LG: Montee 44.9%; Baker 15.8%; others…

GOP LG: Kinder 44.2%; Lager 41.6%

SOS: Schoeller 35.3%; Rupp 34.5; Stouffer 30.3%

1-CD: Clay 63.2%; Carnahan 33.9%



Initial Reaction

There were lots of surprises (to me).   See results here.


It was a Good Night for Dems

First, Sen. Claire McCaskill got her preferred opponent, a far-right candidate with a far-right voting record and a lot of far-right on the record remarks.  That’ll add to some top of the ticket stability for Dems.


Second, with strong African American wins in the City of St. Louis (Rep. Tishaura Jones won city treasurer; Rep. Jamilah Nasheed won Senate 5; and various state representatives races like House 78, 79, and 84 all stayed black), there’s no fear of a uninspired November showing from that core constituency of the Democratic Party.



Incumbents Got Sliced

With redistricting making a lot of districts full of unfamiliar territory, several House incumbents were beat.  Losers: Reps. Thomas Long, Bert Atkins, Tracy McCreery).  Then add in the incumbents who faced other incumbents, (losers: Reps. Sylvester Taylor, Eileen McGeoghegan, Churie Spreng, and Susan Carlson) and it was a tough night for incumbents.



One Vote Does Matter

It’s a poignant reminder… In House 87, Rep. Stacey Newman ekes out a win against Rep. Susan Carlson by one vote.  Recount of course…




Sen. Claire McCaskill (see Good Night for Dems).


Susan Montee rolls to an easy victory in an 8-way primary and gets a Republican incumbent who appears to have been cut off from many of his top donors.


Peter Kinder, left for dead last summer, shows that he knows how to get off the mat.  For those who say that he no longer has a gubernatorial future down the road, he’s shown resiliency.  Four years plenty of time for a rehabilitation.


Mayor Francis Slay.  Nearly ran the table on his endorsements.  With two exceptions, he was spot on including the big one – Lacy Clay.




Missourians Against Higher Utility Rates went 0-3.  The group has links to Noranda.  They backed Rep. Jeanette Oxford in Senate 5 with $63K; Rep. Scott Largent in Senate 31 with $167K and Rep. Ward Franz in Senate 33 with $113K.  All three went down.


The Lager donorsRex Sinquefield sent in $385K; Stan Herzog added $287K; and the Humphreys reportedly kicked in $900K.


Brad Lager.  Is he done?  2008 Treasurer loss, followed by this primary loss.  Maybe.


Firefighters.  Two high-profile endorsements on the wrong side (Lacy Clay and Robin Wright Jones).



Senate Snark

“I think I speak for everyone involved in the Steelman campaign when  I say ‘at least Brunner lost.’”


$5K+ Contributions

MO Republican Party - $30,000 from RGA Missouri PAC.

MO Petroleum Marketers + Convenience Store Assoc PAC - $ 7,500 from Smokers’ Outlet Inc.

MO Petroleum Marketers + Convenience Store Assoc PAC - $25,000 from 7-Eleven.

Give Missourians A Raise - $10,000 from Ballot Initiative Group of Missouri Inc.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $50,000 from SEIU HCII Missouri PAC

Missourians for Health and Education - $21,904 from American Cancer Society, Cancer Action Network.

Missourians for Health and Education - $9,000 from American Cancer Society, Cancer Action Network.




Happy birthdays to Axiom’s Shawn Furey.