Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Three Turnout Thoughts

First, everyone I talk to is nervous.  All I hear is a cliché over and over: “it’s all about turnout.”  Who will show up and vote today?  From the US Senate race on down, there’s fear about a lumpy turnout throwing an odd bounce from the predictability of the recent polls.


Second, this is especially true in the St. Louis area where great uncertainty exists due to the First Congressional primary.  Will Clay’s endangered status drive higher black turnout throughout the contested state Senate and state House primaries?


On the ground the sentiment is actually the reverse.  Politicos have been underwhelmed by the ground game of the two Congressmen.  This leads to speculation that instead of their race determining down ballot races, the local primaries may drive turnout for the congressional race.


Third, with a robust US Senate primary, down ballot Republican races – particularly state Senate and state House races – may have a lot of votes up for grabs at the polling site.  Good poll workers may be able to take folks who came to vote for a top ballot candidate and parley them into votes in the local race.



If Thens?

If Russ Carnahan wins, it will be a triumph of message.  And whoever called for the cutting PayDay Clay campaign will deserve the metal.



If Bill Stouffer wins, it will be a triumph of bill boards, and may revitalize that campaign avenue currently downgraded to nothing more than a glorified oversized bumper sticker.



If John Brunner wins, then $8 million will buy you a Senate primary victory.  But there’s still the general…



MOScout Scorecard

In the Special Reports, you’ll find a Scorecard.  See it here.


It tries to summarize where players have made bets through money or endorsements.  As the night goes on it may help to determine which interests are having a good night.



Just a Few Bits

Rex Sinquefield oddly backs Chris Moreno in House 37.  Read it here.



Jobs with Justice had a staff person leave in KC and that job listing yesterday is simply replacing that person.



The Susan Montee party?  Nowhere.  She’ll spend tonight in Jefferson City because “Wednesday is a work day.”  She plans to win the primary tonight and go right to work tomorrow on the general election.



Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:


Catherine E Nugent deleted Missouri American Water, and Willis Pendelton LLC.

Scott Webb deleted Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc.



$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Emery Sapp & Sons, Inc.

MO Democratic State Committee - $23,500 from Jay Nixon for Missouri.

Freedom PAC - $10,000 from Better Courts for Missouri.
Citizens for Tim W Jones - $7,500 from Fred Weber Inc.

Citizens for Brad Lager - $50,000 from David Humphreys.

House Republican Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Citizens for Timothy Jones.

Friends of Peter Kinder - $10,00 from Fred Weber Inc.

Civic Progress Action Committee - $13,000 from Anheuser-Busch Foundation.



Cash Commentary

A final day $50K to Lager from David Humphreys.  The last installment of a pre-planned investment, or a re-up based on a winning story from Lager?




Happy birthdays to former Rep. Mike Dethrow (60).