MOScout Weekender: Rex Hearts Schmitt - Pearce to UCM - Poll on Trump in MO - WWTW and more...

Rex Backs Schmitt - Again

Rex Sinquefield sent $250,000 to MO Opportunity PAC.  That’s the pro-Eric Schmitt PAC.  Opportunity has now recorded $375K in large contributions since its July filing when it had approximately $750K in the bank

Sinquefield had previously donated $250K to the same PAC in February of this year.

Pearce to UCM

 University of Central Missouri tweets that “Former Missouri Senator David Pearce will bring his knowledge of state government and higher education to UCM” as Executive Director for Governmental Relations.  See it here.

MOScout Poll: Trump

The MOScout Weekly poll looks at Trump in Missouri.  At this time, none of the leading Democratic candidates look competitive against Donald Trump.  (Though none are losing by the 19-point margin which befell Hillary Clinton).  And the Democratic brand in Missouri appears tied to the unpopular tag of socialism. See the full results here.

Survey conducted September 18 through September 19, 2019. 1,046 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3%.

Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

Approve: 53%

Disapprove: 43%

Not sure: 4%

Q2: Possible candidates in the 2020 General Election for President of the United States are Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Donald Trump: 53%

Joe Biden: 42%

Undecided: 5%

Q3: Possible candidates in the 2020 General Election for President of the United States are Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Donald Trump: 54%

Bernie Sanders: 37%

Undecided: 9%

Q4: Possible candidates in the 2020 General Election for President of the United States are Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Elizabeth Warren. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Donald Trump: 54%

Elizabeth Warren: 40%

Undecided: 6%

Q5: Generally speaking, do you view socialism favorably or unfavorably?

Favorably: 16%

Unfavorably: 63%

Not sure: 21%

Q6: Do you think Democrats support socialism?

Yes: 51%

No: 29%

Not sure: 20%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: 2020 GOP Pitfalls

I asked the Hallway, “What is the greatest threat to Missouri Republicans being successful in the 2020 elections?”  28 responses…

RESULTS

1. Trump presidency imploding…  35.7%

2. 2020 recession…. 28.6%

3. National GOP schism… 0%

4. Nasty state primaries / GOP infighting….  21.4%

5. Something else…. 14.2%

Sample Comments

·         The larger the GOP gets, the fewer positions of influence per capita. And the fighting over those few starts to get intense. If DEMS can capitalize on this, they have some hope. Divide, then conquer.

·         2020 recession is tied to Trump imploding.

·         I think the statewide Republicans are well-positioned but will be interesting to see if Dems can make any inroads in suburban areas.

·         I would say there is a risk of so much internal fighting that it transcends the usual “inside baseball” of most elections. It seems very unlikely the Republican train will be derailed or threatened in Missouri but it could weaken and create a void. The good news for Rs is that Ds have little capacity to take advantage of any weakness.

·         Despite stiff republican primary competition, those seats will be republican regardless of who wins the primary. The national trend is what determines statewide races.

Who Won the Week

Rick Brattin and Mike Moon – Two ultra-conservative candidates who aren’t known for their ability to raise money get $100K infusions into their PACs from St. Louis businessman David Steward’s PAC.

Deb Lavender – Held an energetic kick-off her uphill Senate 15 campaign.  Lavendar also has some hot issues.  For example, polling shows bipartisan support for background checks, a stance that probably resonates even more in this suburban district.

Mike Parson – The new MOScout/Human Agency poll gives the governor a solid lead, and the fundraising keeps chugging along.  Meanwhile, Trump continues to look strong at the top of the ticket in Missouri.

Sam Page – Not wasting any time, Page continues to churn out policy initiatives.  His latest this week: paid parental and caregiver leave to all St. Louis county employees.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+Contributions

MO Opportunity PAC - $10,000 from Clinical Reference Laboratory.

MO Opportunity PAC - $250,000 from Rex A Sinquefield.