MOScout Daily Update: Kehoe Announcement Day - Trump Headwinds for Dems - Medicaid's Slim Margin for Error and more....

Kehoe Announcement Day

Kurt Erickson writes about Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe’s announcement today.  See it here.

Missouri’s No. 2 statewide elected official is set to announce on Monday that he will seek a full four-year term. At a park in the capital city, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe is expected to outline his plan to continue focusing his efforts on military veterans, senior citizens and Missouri businesses. The 57-year-old Republican said he also plans to highlight the need for a long-term fix to the state's road and bridge system….

What It Means

·         Still no announced Democratic opponent to Kehoe.  This is part of the larger picture for 2020.

·         Democratic candidates – excepting Nicole Galloway – will be lacking statewide name ID.

·         Similarly, Democratic candidates – again excepting Galloway – will be lacking fundraising experience on the scale necessary for a statewide campaign.

·         Incumbent Republicans will have recognition advantage and money advantage on their Democratic counterparts.

·         Dems may attempt to use this against the GOP by fielding a largely “outsider” slate.

·         But barring a scandal, these two Republican advantages create high barriers for them.

MOScout/Remington Poll: Trump in MO

I haven’t seen a 2020 electoral college map that has Missouri “in play.”  The MOScout/Remington poll (see it here) last weekend confirms this.  Donald Trump should carry the state easily.  Some Dems had hoped that Joe Biden would be able to make Missouri competitive, but this poll has him already down 11 point.

What It Means

Strong headwinds for Missouri statewide Democrats to overcome.

MOScout/Human Agency Poll: Medicaid Expansion

Last week, the monthly web-poll from Human Agency tested the 2020 Missouri ballot.  See it here.

I’ve previously polled Medicaid.  But this was different, as it used the ballot language.  And while Missourians are in favor of the proposal (42% to 25%), the fact that it’s below 50% should give proponents pause.

What It Means

·         The question’s fate will hinge on the undecideds. 

·         An opposition campaign could use the ballot language’s indefinite fiscal note to turn voters against the proposal.

·         But if no organized opposition emerges, a robust campaign could eke out a victory.

Nicklaus on Start-Up Jobs

Post-Dispatch’s David Nicklaus writes a column about new companies as the drivers of job creation in Missouri.  And it’s implications for public policy.  See it here.

Missouri has notched some big economic wins lately with expansions by such companies as Amazon, Bunge and Square.  A new study, however, reminds us that most jobs aren’t created hundreds at a time. They come in smaller batches from homegrown firms that are just getting started… Missouri startups — defined as firms less than a year old with fewer than 20 employees — created an astonishing 44,355 jobs last year. That number was no fluke either: Between 2014 and 2018, the state’s startups created an average of 40,797 jobs per year.

For perspective, last year’s number amounts to 78 percent of all new jobs created in Missouri…

It stands to reason: Big business is relentless in its pursuit of efficiency, and every big merger is followed by hundreds or thousands of job cuts…. Entrepreneurs, meanwhile, have to hire people to realize their dreams. It may be just one or two or 10, but the numbers add up… While state officials are trying to put together a $50 million incentive package to support General Motors’ plant in Wentzville, their support for startups has been spotty…

New Committees

Benny Thomas formed a candidate committee (Committee To Elect Benny Earl Thomas H-124) to run for House 124 as a Republican.  The current incumbent, Republican Rep. Rocky Miller, is termed.

Crystal PAC was formed.  Its treasurer is Matthew Patterson.

Lobbyist Registrations

Susan Beth Griffith added Certified Alternative Medicine Providers, LLC.

Laura Ann Waldo added National Association of Nutrition Professionals.

Brent Hemphill deleted Pearson Education Inc, and GED Testing Service LLC.

Gamble & Schlemeier deleted Kansas City Missouri.