MOScout Weekender: Another $4M from RGA - Senate 15 Polling - Hallway on Senate Races - WWTW and more...

RGA Drops Another $4M into Gov Race

Nothing says “tightening race” like the Republican Governors Association dropping in another $4 million.  And that’s what happened yesterday.

This brings the RGA’s total investment into the race to over $12.6 million.

 

Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 15

Survey conducted October 7 through October 8, 2020. 644 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.8% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. (08/21) results in parentheses.  See the full results here.

Q1: Candidates in the 2020 General Election for President of the United States are the Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Joe Biden. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? 

Donald Trump: 45%

Joe Biden: 51%

Undecided: 4% 

Q2: Candidates in the 2020 General Election for Governor are the Republican Mike Parson and the Democrat Nicole Galloway. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? 

Mike Parson: 47%

Nicole Galloway: 48% 

Undecided: 5% 

Q3: The candidates in the 2020 General Election for State Senate are the Republican Andrew Koenig and the Democrat Deb Lavender. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Andrew Koenig: 45% (43%)

Deb Lavender: 49% (43%)

Undecided: 6% (14%)

Q4: What do you think is the most pressing concern for state government?

Dealing with the coronavirus: 34% (35%)

Reducing violent crime: 28% (32%)

Creating more jobs: 11% (7%)

Improving healthcare: 12% (10%)

Something else: 5% (5%)

Not sure: 11% (9%)

 

eMailbag on Purple PAC Ad

Old saying in the Dem party if you’re talking about guns and abortion on Election Day you’re probably losing. If you’re talking about healthcare and jobs you’re probably winning. I would say tacking into GOP base issues is a bold campaign decision, but Dems have made the gun run in SD-15 before against Gibbons and Schmitt. Guess we’ll see if third time is a charm?

 

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Senate Forecast

Whil some see a draw or a Dem “sweep,” the bulk of the lobbying corps is expecting Dems to pick up one senate seat this cycle.  22 replies…

RESULTS

1. GOP +1… 0%

2. Even… 9.1%

3. Dems +1… 72.7%

4. Dems +2… 18.2%

Sample of Comments

·         The 19th is incredibly close, but R's run behind in Boone every cycle and then pull it out with an onslaught of media. Lavender is going to roll Koenig…

·         Koenig's seat most likely to flip but honestly I think he hangs on.

·         I think 3-1 but we are 4 weeks out and as this past week has shown-a lot can happen. If the trend continues to move in the direction it has- 4-0 is not out of the question.

·         Wave year for the Dems.

·         Rowden survives by the skin of his teeth. Jon Ratliff is a savant.

·         Koenig squeaks by Lavender. Beck beats Lenihan comfortably.

·         Rowden wins. Koenig and Lenihan lose.

·         The Dems win Koenig and keep SD 1 and very narrowly, the R's hold on to SD 19.

·         Ask me a week before the election when voters begin to break one way or the other.

 

Who Won the Week?

Judy Baker – She didn’t win the debate with Caleb Rowden.  In fact, by objective measures she might have lost it.  But she did do something no other Missouri pol has done: lured Claire McCaskill into placing a personal stake.  This week, McCaskill swooped in, called a press conference, and brought oodles of free press for Baker.

Tim Jones – Post-Pelopidas, Jones is seizing new opportunities.  He’s been named as the new morning host for Conservative radio station in Springfield, and he’s started his own consulting company, Elevation Strategies.

Deb Lavender – MOScout polling puts her up in the St. Louis County race, and the hallway insiders seem to be expecting her to win as well.

TV stations – You might ave worried about them without a US Senate race in Missouri this cycle.  But Nicole Galloway announced a huge $3M quarter and RGA dumped another $4M into the race yesterday.  There’s only so many yard signs you can buy, it’s got to go on the air.
Find a downloadable version here.

 

$5K+ Contributions

Republican Governors Association Missouri 2020 - $4,000,000 from Republican Governors Association (Washington DC).

Uniting Missouri PAC - $3,000,000 from Republican Governors Association Missouri.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $20,000 from United Healthcare Services Inc (Minneapolis MN).

Democratic Governors Association - Missouri - $225,000 from Democratic Governors Association (Washington DC).

A Stronger Missouri - $225,000 from Democratic Governors Association – Missouri.

Keep Government Accountable - $50,000 from Missouri Drive Fund.

CLEAN Missouri - $500,000 from Action Now Initiative (Houston TX).

American Dream PAC - $25,000 from Missouri Soybean Association.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Ameren Missouri.

American Dream PAC - $11,000 from MO Cattlemens Association PAC.

American Dream PAC - $7,500 from Supporters of Health Research & Treatments.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from CFM Insurance.

Mighty Missouri PAC - $15,000 from Supporters of Health Research & Treatments.

Mighty Missouri PAC - $10,000 from Caesars Enterprise Services LLC.

Mighty Missouri PAC - $6,000 from Warrenton Oil Company.

Mighty Missouri PAC - $10,000 from Charter Communications.

Purple PAC - $20,000 from Robb & Robb LLC.

Purple PAC - $10,750 from DiPasquale Moore, LLC.

DougPac - $15,000 from Plumbers & Pipefitters Local 562 Political Education Fund.

David Lenihan for Senate.com - $30,000 from David Lenihan.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $11,650 from Missouri Chamber Political Institute.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $15,000 from Charter Communications.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $7,500 from MO DSV PAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $7,500 from RQC PAC.

Missouri Right to Life Political Action Committee - $15,000 from Fred Sauer.

Page PAC - $25,000 from Centene Management Company.

Operating Engineers Local 101 Political Fund - $41,805 from Operating Engineers Local 101 Kansas Political Action Committee.

UFCW Active Ballot Club-Missouri Federal Committee - $125,000 from United Food and Commercial Workers International Union Active Ballot Club (Washington DC).

 

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Roger Wilson, Denny Hoskins, Jack Coatar, Bruce Holt and Terry Jarrett.

Sunday: Jeanne Kirkton, Jamala Rogers, and Jay Hardenbrook.

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