MOScout Daily Update: Parson Raised $1M - Crystal Ball Moves CD-2 to Toss-Up - Rex Hearts Eigel - Misleading Unemployment Number and more...

Rex Hearts Eigel

The pro-Bill Eigel PAC, Believe in Life and Liberty, received a $150,000 contribution from Rex Sinquefield yesterday.  Eigel’s Senate election is not considered competitive, so one imagines the funds will find their way to Senate 15 where fellow Conservative Caucus member, Sen. Andrew Koenig is battling for his political life.

What It Means

This is not too surprising. Eigel is adamantly pro-free markets, an ideology at the heart of Sinquefield’s political agenda, and the PAC has received support from Sinquefield before.

But it is significant.  After Sinquefield’s split from his top advisor, folks have been watching to see how engaged the uber-donor would remain.

And

Speaking of Senate 15 and the Conservative Caucus, some Senate watchers are already starting to worry about the implications of a Koenig defeat.

They feel that he was the most reliable bridge between the CC and rest of the Senate when thorny issues needed negotiating.  Although Koenig is unabashedly right-wing, he also was willing to seek common ground to move issues forward.

If Koenig loses, who will assume that role among the CC?  Or will the Senate suffer without a dealmaker?

Sabato Moves CD-2 to Toss-Up

On Twitter this morning… the widely followed Sabato Crystal Ball moves Missouri’s CD-2 to toss-up.  See it here.

This erosion for the president plays a major role in some of our rating changes this week. Most notably, we’re moving Reps. Ann Wagner (R, MO-2) and Don Bacon (R, NE-2) from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Wagner holds a highly-educated and affluent suburban St. Louis district that Trump won by 10 points but that could very well flip to Biden, and she is being pushed hard by state Sen. Jill Schupp (D)… We had been giving these incumbents the benefit of the doubt, but the weight of the presidential race in their districts could very well drag them down.

Parson Raises $1M

Governor Mike Parson filed his October fundraising report showing that he raised $1,077,339 during the last period. 

What It Means

A million dollars is nothing to sneeze at, but Auditor Nicole Galloway preannounced a total triple that amount.

And with outside groups pouring many more millions into the race, these numbers are less important now.  Both sides clearly have enough resources to relay their message to the voters.

Misleading Unemployment Rate

Team Parson cheered the latest jobs report which showed the unemployment rate in Missouri fell to 4.9%.

The actual report was a sad reminder of the economic damage that the coronavirus has inflicted on Missouri.

The unemployment rate only declined because a ton of Missourians are no longer counted in the labor pool.  “The over-the-month drop is due in part to the unemployed workers exhausting their Unemployment Insurance benefits and leaving the labor market.”

68,345 Missourians left the labor force, so even there were 1,350 fewer Missourians working (seasonally adjusted number), the unemployment rate declined.

State COVID Dashboard Returns

The state’s maligned COVID data “dashboard” returned to service yesterday.  It did not show any change in the trends in Missouri – including elevated hospitalizations.

Post-Dispatch reports: COVID-19 cases in Missouri increased by 4,449 since the last update, but coronavirus deaths decreased by two. The state has not yet provided an explanation for why deaths decreased…

Lobbyists Registrations

Nicole Marie Lynch added VOYCE.

Andrew Mullins added MoCann Trade.

David Willis added BetMGM LLC and Commonwealth Missouri LLC.

Tom Rackers deleted Presidio Environmental LLC.

$5K+ Contributions

Believe in Life and Liberty - BILL PAC - $150,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Clean and Accountable - $70,000 from Protect Missouri Freedom.

Missourians for a Responsible Budget - $25,000 from Missouri Alliance For Freedom - Grace River PAC.

Missourians for a Responsible Budget - $25,000 from American Democracy Alliance - Ridgely PAC.

CLEAN Missouri - $20,281 from MOVE Action.

Citizens For Missouri Courts - $20,000 from Schlichter Bogard & Denton, LLP.

American Dream PAC - $20,000 from SDG Capital Company LLC.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $12,500 from Charter Communications.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from North Missouri Leadership PAC.

House Democratic Campaign Committee - $7,500 from Everytown For Gun Safety.

Civic Progress Action Committee - $7,500 from Nestle Purina PetCare Company.

Michelle Sherod for St. Louis - $24,744 from Michelle Sherod.

Friends for Good Clay County Government - $20,000 from Kansas City Regional Association of Realtors.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Rep. Chrissy Sommer.