MOScout Daily Update: October Filings - Koenig Campaign Low on $$$? - Parson Releases Vac Plan - Rowden Stalked? and more...

Down Ballot GOPers Hold COH Advantage

The October filings show that Republicans hold substantial cash advantages over their Democratic opponents in three of the four statewide down ballot races.  Although Nicole Galloway – the Democrat at the top of the ticket – has recorded explosive fundraising numbers, that enthusiasm hasn’t translated into cash for the rest of the slate.  Yinka Faleti is the only Democrat with more cash on-hand than his Republican opponent.  And even his narrow lead disappears when PAC money is considered.

·         And, of course, this disadvantage is magnified for Dems because they face lower name ID than the incumbent Republicans from the outset of the campaign.

Here’s the cash on-hand balances from the October filings….

Lieutenant Governor

Mike Kehoe – $577,446.  Plus, American Dream PAC – $307,854 (with $48K in debt).

Alissia Canady - $75,910.

Secretary of State

Jay Ashcroft - $408,505.  Plus, Committee for Liberty - $97,027.

Yinka Faleti - $436,284.

Treasurer

Scott Fitzpatrick - $376,666.  Plus, Missourians for a Responsible Budget - $165,130.

Vicki Englund $7,328.

Attorney General

Eric Schmitt - $723,132.  Plus, MO Opportunity PAC - $2.1M.

Rich Finneran – $136,456.

Moving on to the competitive Senate races…

Senate Races

District 1

David Lenihan raised $21,969; spent $24,090; and has $50,896 on-hand with $83,745 in debt.  Plus, his aligned PAC, A Better District 1, has $32,477 on-hand.

Rep. Doug Beck raised $179,441; spent $208,469.; and has $315,916 on hand.  Plus, his aligned PAC, Doug PAC, has $94,396 on-hand.

What It Means: Dems look to hold this seat, and their candidate Doug Beck has far more cash at his disposal than Lenihan.  Even Team Lenihan’s point person, Jamey Murphy, noted on Facebook recently that they may be outspent (“though not outworked”). 

District 15

Sen. Andrew Koenig raised $97,043; spent $288,417; and has $24,758 on-hand.  Plus, his aligned PAC, Freedom’s Promise PAC, has $57,183 on-hand.

Rep. Deb Lavender raised $268,335; spent $166,977; and has $622,962 on-hand. Plus, her aligned PAC, Purple PAC has $178,115 on-hand.

What It Means: Koenig started the month with just $25K in his candidate committee?!? That’s a distressing low amount of money compared with Lavender’s $600K+.  More and more hallway types think this race is over.

District 17

Mickey Younghanz raised $8,159; spent $2,868; and has $5,290 on-hand.

Sen. Lauren Arthur raised $61,996; spent $34,999; and has $430,015 on-hand.  Plus, her aligned PAC, True North PAC, has $ 94,609 on-hand.

What It Means: The Republican Senate team has talked about trying to sneak a surprise win here.  They even sent a mailer recently.  I don’t see it in the cards.

District 19

Sen. Caleb Rowden raised $176,376; spent $116,739; and has $398,001 on-hand.  Plus, his aligned PAC, Missouri Forward, has $426,769 on-hand.

Judy Baker raised $98,620; spent $143,186; and has $168,903 on-hand. Plus, her aligned PAC, Missouri Action, has $85,624 on-hand.

What It Means: Rowden maintains a healthy money lead.  But GOP has to be worried that the environment and turnout conspire to overwhelm his campaign regardless.

TOP 25 COH

Republican Governors Association – Missouri - $3.6M million.

MO Opportunity PAC - $2.2 million.

CLEAN Missouri - $2 million.

Parson For Missouri – $1.7 million.

Nicole Galloway For Missouri - $1.6 million.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $1.3 million.

Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC - $899,772.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $792,642.

Schmitt For Missouri - $723,132.

American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $672,311.

Lyda Krewson for Mayor - $651,525.

Lavender For State Senate - $622,962.

Carpenters Help in the Political Process (CHIPP) - $595,132.

Citizens To Elect Mike Kehoe - $577,446.

Friends Of Gregory FX Daly - $564,159.

MO National Education Assoc-PAC - $555,032.

Leadership For America - $543,265.

A Stronger Missouri - $532,215.

Friends Of Eric Burlison - $455,186.

Faleti For Missouri - $436,284.

Committee To Elect Lauren Arthur - $430,015.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $428,719 (with $606K in debt).

Missouri Forward PAC - $426,769.

Ashcroft For Missouri - $408,505.

Friends Of Caleb Rowden - $398,001.

Schupp Tout 3Q Results

Press release: Jill Schupp’s campaign for Congress shattered the MO-02 fundraising record by raising over $1.85 million for Q3. Schupp outraised Congresswoman Wagner by nearly half a million dollars. This number covers funds raised from July 1st until September 30th….

Total Raised in Q3: $1.85 million

Cash On Hand: $1.1 million

Rowden: Political Stalking?

Sen. Caleb Rowden writes of some unnerving activity around his home.  See it here.

Over the last couple of months, my wife Aubrey and I have noticed multiple times where we are certain we were being followed, often with our children riding in the back seat. Several other times these individuals were either sitting in our street when we left in the morning or would follow us home and sit with their lights on in our street after we arrived. These instances have often left Aubrey in fear for her safety and that of our kiddos on evenings when I wasn’t home.

Recently, the individual in the attached picture came to our door late at night for unknown reasons but fortunately ran away shortly after ringing the doorbell. Aubrey was frightened and my son Willem was confused as to why a stranger would be at our door so late at night.

Governor Releases Vaccine Plan

Governor Mike Parson, during his weekly press briefing concerning COVID, unveiled the state’s plan to distribute a vaccine when it’s ready.  Find the plan here.

Post-Dispatch notes that during his press conference he indicated that taking the vaccine will be voluntary… but one political observer found this quote in the article to be the real humdinger…

“Originally the hope was that as summer came it would burn itself out, or that these respiratory viruses tend to have kind of a rise and decrease, that that’s not been our reality internationally or nationally with COVID,” Williams said.

·         MOScouter: Don’t you think the Galloway campaign is committing malpractice is they don’t do something with the idea of hoping the virus goes away instead of working your ass off to save folks lives?

Gubby Appt

Governor Mike Parson appointed Maleia Cheney as the McDonald County Prosecuting Attorney. Ms. Cheney has served as the Interim Prosecuting Attorney since the retirement of the former McDonald County Prosecuting Attorney Bill Dobbs. Ms. Cheney holds a bachelor’s degree and a Juris Doctorate from the University of Kansas.

eMailbag on The Next Koenig

If there is a Koenig void look for O’Laughlin to fill that void. She spent last session looking to better understand her colleagues and develop relationships. We all know the senate is all about relationships.

Lobbyists Registrations

Sarah Waun added Genentech Inc., a Member of the Roche Group.

Lou Hamilton deleted Great Saint Louis, and Rebuild Saint Louis Inc.

$5K+ Contributions

Uniting Missouri PAC - $30,000 from Heavy Constructors Association Industry Advancement Fund.

American Dream PAC - $25,000 from American Democracy Alliance Ridgely PAC.

American Dream PAC - $25,000 from MO Alliance for Freedom Grace River PAC.

Missouri Forward PAC - $10,000 from Ameren Missouri PAC.

Missouri Forward PAC - $10,000 from Drury Development Corporation.

Mighty Missouri PAC - $10,000 from BNSF Railway Company.

Bayer US LLC Missouri PAC - $40,000 from Bayer U.S. LLC Political Action Committee.

Physician Led Anesthesia Care PAC - $25,000 from Western Anesthesiology Associates, Inc.

Freedom Incorporated - $20,000 from Heavy Constructors Association.

Lathrop Gage Consulting Political Action Committee - $15,000 from Alkin Co.

Citizens for Good Government - $11,275 from Lincoln County Professional EMS Association.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Rita Heard Days and Antonio French.