MOScout Daily Update: Koenig's Cavalry - Poll Shows Parson Lead, CLEANER in Flames - Hallway Sees Dem Gains in House and more....

Senate 15: Koenig’s Cavalry

With a little over two weeks until the Election, Sen. Andrew Koenig received some help yesterday.  His IE PAC, Freedom’s Promise PAC, recorded nearly $300,000 in checks.

·         $150,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

·         $110,000 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.

·         $35,000 from North Missouri Leadership PAC.

This comes after his October candidate filing showed he started the month with only $25K in the bank, and after Remington/MOScout polling gave his challenger a lead for the first time.

Fitz Releases Ad

State Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick released his first campaign commercial yesterday.  See it here.

It’s a bio ad with a list of accomplishments, beginning with starting a business in high school and ending with his time as treasurer. 

The tagline: “Fitzpatrick means business.”

His Democratic opponent, Vicki Englund, only had $7,000 in the bank as of her October filing.  So she won’t be airing anything on TV.

COVID Crisis Continues

From my morning twitter feed, Rudi Keller reports: Missouri reports new daily highs for #COVID19 cases and deaths, 2,357 new #COVID19Missouri infections, 121 deaths…

Remington/MOScout Poll: Statewide Survey

Survey conducted October 14 through October 15, 2020. 1,010 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.

Q1: Do you think the United States is heading in the right direction or is it going off on the wrong track? 

Right direction: 43%

Wrong track: 47%

Not sure: 10% 

Q2: The candidates in the 2020 General Election for President of the United States are the Republican Donald Trump, the Democrat Joe Biden, the Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen, and the Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? 

Donald Trump: 51%

Joe Biden: 45%

Jo Jorgensen: 1% 

Howie Hawkins: 1% 

Undecided: 2%

Q3: The candidates in the 2020 General Election for Governor are the Republican Mike Parson, the Democrat Nicole Galloway, the Libertarian Rik Combs, and the Green Party candidate Jerome H. Bauer. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? 

Mike Parson: 51%

Nicole Galloway: 43% 

Rik Combs: 2% 

Jerome H. Bauer: 1% 

Undecided: 3%

Q4: Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to: Ban gifts from paid lobbyists to legislators and their employees; Reduce legislative campaign contribution limits; Change the redistricting process voters approved in 2018 by: (i) transferring responsibility for drawing state legislative districts from the Nonpartisan State Demographer to Governor-appointed bipartisan commissions; (ii) modifying and reordering the redistricting criteria. State governmental entities expect no cost or savings. Individual local governmental entities expect significant decreased revenues of a total unknown amount. 

If the election were held today, would you vote yes, or would you vote no? 

Yes: 28% 

No: 50% 

Undecided: 22%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: House Prediction

Here’s the current mood of the hallway on how the state house races will shake out.  27 replies…

RESULTS

1. GOP gains seats… 0%

2. Wash (even or +/- 1)… 3.7%

3. Dems pick up 2-4 seats... 48.1%

4. Dems pick up 5-7 seats… 40.7%

5. Dems pick up 8+… 7.5%

Sample of Comments

·         It is a tough year. HRCC is doing all they can. It is just going to be tough.

·         Going out on a real limb here. In theory the D's should pick up 8-13, but they have proven cycle after cycle they have an uncanny ability of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. If they can't make serious gains in 2020 it's hard to imagine when they might.

·         Democrats pick up 4 seats, which means that Curtis Trent hangs on for a narrow victory.

·         Hannegan, Roeber, Helms, and 1-2 others.

·         House Dems should pick up more than a few seats if recent polling holds. The current leadership is excellent at feigning “a new progressive way,” but there’s very little fundraising or recruitment. Dem-friendly lobbyists aren’t even called for money.

·         Dems nab 2-4. Things aren’t trending in their direction.

·         Ds make moderate gains; Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation staunches the R bleed in suburbs.

·         Two weeks ago I would have predicted repubs minus 4, but climate seems to be settling and stabilizing in favor of repubs holding status quo with perhaps Roeber’s seat flipping due to his own issues, nothing to do with any outside influences.

·         Unfortunate thing is that the Republicans could lose some of their most reasonable members.

Who Won the Week?

Scott Fitzpatrick – Released his first ad two weeks out, while his opponent showed only $7K in the bank as of September 30. 

Jill Schupp – Strong momentum heading into final two weeks, with another big fundraising haul and national analysts increasingly viewing the race as a toss-up.

House Dems – Finding a favorable environment in which Republicans are almost entirely playing defense.  Hallway sees Dems grabbing seats this year.

Deanna Hemphill – The latest Pelopidas alumna to decide on their next act.  She launched D Hemphill Consulting this week, a new firm dedicated to local and state lobbying.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

Freedom's Promise PAC - $150,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Freedom's Promise PAC - $110,000 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.

Freedom's Promise PAC - $35,000 from North Missouri Leadership PAC.

Purple PAC - $10,000 from Sheet Metal Workers Int'l Ass'n Local Union No. 36 PEA.

CLEAN Missouri - $125,000 from Action Now Initiative.

CLEAN Missouri - $25,000 from End Citizens United.

Keep Government Accountable - $50,000 from United Steel Workers District 11.

Keep Government Accountable - $50,000 from CWA COPE MISSOURI.

Keep Government Accountable - $10,000 from Sheet Metal Workers Local 2 Legislative Action Committee.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,000 from Emery Sapp & Sons Inc.

Committee for Liberty - $25,000 from MO Alliance for Freedom Grace River PAC.

Committee for Liberty - $25,000 from American Democracy Alliance - Ridgely PAC.

MO Opportunity PAC - $25,000 from MO Alliance for Freedom Grace River PAC.

MO Opportunity PAC - $25,000 from American Democracy Alliance - Ridgely PAC.

House Democratic Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Ameren Missouri.

House Democratic Campaign Committee - $25,000 from 314Action.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $10,000 from Patterson for Missouri.

MADA Dealers Interested in Government - $60,000 from St. Louis Auto Dealers Association.

Jackson County Democratic Committee - $14,000 from Cleaver for Congress.

Citizens For Missouri Courts - $7,500 from Lewis Rice.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Sen. Jamilah Nasheed, Scott Rupp, Sara Baker and Ray Hefner.

Sunday: Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin, Rep. Chris Dinkins, Jim Talent and Ray McCarty.