MOScout Weekender: STL County Exec Race, Page Memo, MOScout Polling - Hallway on 2020 Factors - WWTW and more....
STL County Exec Race
A memo from St. Louis County Executive Sam Page’s campaign was circulating yesterday. See it here. It shows Page with a healthy lead in that race that’s consistent with, but greater than, the lead MOScout’s polling shows (see below).
We’re about two months away from the primary. The lead is significant. His rivals must make the case that he should be replaced. Still, perhaps a stronger point in Page’s favor from the polling: 76% of respondent approve of the county’s handling of the coronavirus. That may be the centerpiece of the Page campaign, highlighting his medical credentials and his calm demeanor.
Mark Mantovani is second in the MOScout poll. Mantovani almost beat Steve Stenger two years ago. In fact, some believe without the right to work referendum spiking labor turnout, Mantovani would have prevailed. Mantovani is an entrepreneur and businessman. He’s raised a lot of money and has garnered key endorsements (Carpenters, Police), showing dissatisfaction with Page among some powerful constituencies. Furthermore, his last contest showed he’s a fierce competitor and shouldn’t be underestimated.
The knock on Mantovani is that he’s really a Republican. But what might be more troublesome for his campaign is the question whether in this time (amid a once-in-a-generation public health crisis) voters want a businessman in charge.
Jake Zimmerman is right behind Mantovani in the polling. He’s the sitting County Assessor. That has given him some measure of name ID, although one politico chuckled that property assessments aren’t exactly the mail pieces that people are happy to open. Zimmerman has a large war-chest and a message. If Mantivani is a Republican businessman, and Page is the face of the status quo, then Zimmerman is the real Democrat. He’s running in the left lane. In a Democratic primary that’s normally the place you want to be. However, it’s not clear from the polling if it will gain traction here. When asked what was most important, voters said “managerial competence” (42%) and “personal integrity” (34%), ahead of a candidate’s “political positions.”
Finally, there’s Jamie Tolliver. She has some demographic advantages being the only women and only African American in the field. But she hasn’t demonstrated an ability to raise the necessary amount of money to compete. In this time of coronavirus, the August primary will be determined by TV ads, radio ads, digital ads, and mail pieces. There won’t be much, if any, door-knocking, rallies or grass-roots turnout efforts. Therefore, money is critical. Without cash, she’s doomed to stay where the polling currently has her: in fourth place.
Two months is a long time during a crisis. Page must manage the county’s reopening. It’s a delicate task with political risks. He must navigate between those residents who are still fearful of a second wave and would prefer a slow, incremental, cautious reopening, and those who have psychologically integrated the coronavirus risk and are ready to get back to business.
It will be difficult to please both camps, and that could lead to an erosion voter approval in his handling of the crisis. And that could give his opponent’s the opening they need.
We’ll see….
Remington/MOScout Poll: STL County Exec
Survey conducted May 27 through May 28, 2020. 640 likely 2020 Democratic Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Democratic Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: Do you think St. Louis County is headed in right direction or is it going off on the wrong track?
Right direction: 49%
Wrong track: 25%
Not sure: 26%
Q2: The candidates in the 2020 Democratic Primary Election for St. Louis County Executive are Jake Zimmerman, Sam Page, Mark Mantovani and Jamie Tolliver. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Jake Zimmerman: 13%
Sam Page: 34%
Mark Mantovani: 19%
Jamie Tolliver: 3%
Undecided: 31%
Q3: Do you approve or disapprove of St. Louis County’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak?
Strongly approve: 39%
Somewhat approve: 37%
Somewhat disapprove: 10%
Strongly disapprove: 7%
Not sure: 7%
Q4: When thinking about the next St. Louis County Executive, what is most important to you: their political positions, their managerial competence, or their personal integrity?
Political positions: 14%
Managerial competence: 42%
Personal integrity: 34%
Not sure: 10%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Who Drove the First Half?
What will have the greatest impact on Missouri's 2020 elections? 27 replies…
RESULTS
1. The state of the coronavirus…. 14.8%
2. The state of the economy…. 22.2%
3. The popularity of President Trump… 63%
4. Something else… 0%
Sample of Comments
· This is a referendum election on Trump. He will dominate the cycle, one way or the other.
· Economy = popularity of Trump with suburban independents/Republicans. Galloway can’t win rural Mo. so need suburban men and women to turn against Republicans.
· All of the other choices are really going to show up as an approval/disapproval of the President. In 2016 Trump won MO by 19+ which helped Senator Blunt squeak through. If Trump's win margin is cut in half or less this could be rough sledding for vulnerable Rs in Senate and House districts. It won't change the state from Red to purple, but could usher out a super majority. The question will be whether that further polarizes R's because moderates lose.
· The chaos at the White House rules the day. And for Missouri, that means GOP does well statewide and Dems pick up ground in suburbs where their candidate isn’t a loony toon/village idiot.
· Really it’s the state of the economy and the severity of a fall COVID19 outbreak. Which is why anyone who says they know what November looks like is lying.
Who Won the Week?
Sam Page – MOScout’s polling shows Page starts with a lead in the County Executive’s race. But maybe more important, about ¾ of the voters approve of the county’s response to the coronavirus. That puts him in a strong position for this August’s race.
Planned Parenthood – Wins their tussle with the state over licensing.
David Wood – The latest legislator to get an appointment from the governor. And the child advocacy community seems happy with him as the new director of the Children’s Division of DSS.
Anti-PDMPers – Franklin County’s exit from the Prescription Drug Monitoring Program provides a powerful data point to those who say its importance has been overstated.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for Healthcare - $750,000 from Health Forward Foundation.
Keep Government Accountable - $10,000 from Gregory Wendt (San Francisco, CA).
Keep Government Accountable - $250,000 from United Auto Workers V Cap.
Keep Government Accountable - $10,000 from IUOE Local 513 Political and Educational Fund.
Keep Government Accountable - $10,000 from Robb & Robb LCC.
Campaign for Clean Water STL - $10,000 from Schnucks Markets, Inc.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Galen Higdon, and Stacy Reliford.
Sunday: Joan Barry, Ethan Todd, and Ryan Dillon.