MOScout Weekender: Senate 31 Poll - Hallway on Masks - WWTW and more...
Quick Bits from Various Races
· Watch the latest Mark Mantovani ad here. Sounds like a closing argument.
· Josh Barrett in Senate 3 says, “I’ll fight like a Marine.” See it here.
· In Senate 27, Kathy Swan tosses $60K into her campaign account.
· Missouri Farm Bureau announced opposition to Medicaid expansion. See it here.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 31
Survey conducted July 21 through July 23, 2020. 403 likely 2020 Republican Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.9% with a 95% level of confidence. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here. (Results from April 18, 2020 poll in parenthesis.)
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as President of the United States?
Approve: 79% (83%)
Disapprove: 18% (13%)
Not sure: 3% (4%)
Q2: Candidates in the August 4th Republican Primary Election for State Senate are Jack Bondon, Rick Brattin and Bill Yarberry. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Jack Bondon: 40% (16%)
Rick Brattin: 34% (18%)
Bill Yarberry: 6% (5%)
Undecided: 20% (60%)
Q3: What is your opinion of the state government’s response to the coronavirus?
They’re overreacting: 28% (16%)
They’re handling it correctly: 40% (64%)
They haven’t done enough: 21% (14%)
No opinion: 11% (6%)
Q4: Which statement best describes your feelings about requiring face masks in public?
The spread of COVID-19 is a public health threat, and face masks should be required in public: 48%
The spread of COVID-19 is a public health threat, but face masks should not be required in public: 35%
The spread of COVID-19 is not a public health threat: 8%
Not sure: 9%
TYPE OF GOP: Thinking about the various types of voters within the Republican party, which type of voter do you consider yourself to be? Evangelical, a Trump Republican, Traditional, Libertarian, or something else?
Evangelical: 21%
Trump: 44%
Traditional: 15%
Libertarian: 9%
Something else: 11%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Governor’s Mask Policy
The Hallway generally thinks that Parson’s not mandating masks is bad policy (74%), but smart politics (55%). 27 responses.
Governor Parson not mandating face masks is...
RESULTS
1. Good policy, and good politically… 11.1%
2. Good policy, but bad politically… 7.4%
3. Bad policy, but good politically… 44.4%
4. Bad policy, and bad politically… 29.6%
5. Who knows?... 7.4%
Sample of Comments
· Clearly with more and more Republicans, including Trump, promoting face masks, masks poll well.
· Bad policy, undecided politically. Where I am (STL County) it seems like bad politics but in the rest of the state probably plays great.
· Right now it’s bad policy and good politically...however, bad policy eventually develops into bad politics. If numbers continue as they are and schools shut down this fall, the governor’s race is going to tighten and I’m not sure there’s anything the Governor can do about it given the political landscape.
· The base is nuts, he can’t lose them but moderates may flee him in droves if COVID keeps getting worse.
· He already has the anti-masker vote by default. He just is making himself look stupid to the college educated suburban voters.
· Darned if you do, darned if you don't. He can't abandon the GOP base and they don't like to be told what to do.
· That is a tough one. Doing the right thing should never be bad politically, but that is the environment these days…
· Everyone knows masks help but he needs to keep his base solid to win and they don't like wearing them or being told what to do by the government. Now to try and straddle the fence he should encourage people to wear them, and wear one himself especially in pictures posted on social media.
· This is all going to be decided in the rear view mirror…
Who Won the Week?
Mark McCloskey – Explain to me again how a St. Louis City trial attorney who was a campaign donor of Russ Carnahan became the darling of the GOP. However it happened, he’s got the Republican governor promising a pardon and the Republican AG trying to one up that. Go figure.
Mike Parson – By pivoting his campaign to focus on addressing violent crime, he has found a way to energize his base, keep the business community happy, and win over suburban women.
Bill Eigel – The buzz has receded as Eigel appears to have his primary challenge clamped down.
Robert Ross – It feels like desperation when folks start saying that an x-ray of a thumb is lewd and pornographic…
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Friends Of Kathy Swan - $60,000 from Kathy Swan.
Holly PAC - $30,000 from Missouri Senate Conservatives Fund.
MO Opportunity PAC - $20,000 from Anheuser Busch.
Justice for All PAC - $20,000 from Voters for Good Government.
Page PAC - $10,000 from Seneca CRE LLC.
Change STL PAC - $10,000 from Jeffrey Cook.
Missourians for Healthcare - $50,000 from Missouri Coalition for Commuity Behavioral Healthcare.
Missourians for Healthcare - $19,359 from American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network Inc.
Missourians for Healthcare - $14,041 from Missouri Hospital Association.
Missourians for Healthcare - $10,588 from Pioneer Outdoor LLC.
The Good Government Committee - $25,000 from 417 PAC.
Missouri Leadership Fund - $25,000 from 417 PAC.
Western Missouri Leadership Fund - $30,000 from The Madison PAC.
Forte' For Jackson County Sheriff Committee - $12,500 from Darryl Forte.
Central to Good Government PAC - $10,000 from C. B. of Jefferson City.
Site Improvement Association of Missouri PAC - $7,500 from John Fabick Tractor Company.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Charlie Shield, Megan Green and Jay Atkins.
Sunday: Donna Lichtenegger, and Mike McMillan.