MOScout Weekender: Senate 15 Poll TIED! - Hancock Starts New Venture - WWTW and more...
Hancock to New MO States Newsroom Affiliate
KCStar’s Jason Hancock announced over Twitter that he was leaving the paper to start a new venture.
My next adventure will be as editor of an as-of-yet unnamed nonprofit news site focused on Missouri politics & government. We will launch as part of the @StatesNewsroom
Family… I dearly loved my time at The Star, and the fantastic journalists I've had the fortune of working alongside. I'm proud of the work we've done. But I'm excited at what the future holds as I start putting together a staff of reporters. More details soon...
What It Means
We’ll soon be getting another news source covering Jefferson City. See the States Newsroom website here.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate 15
Survey conducted August 19 through August 20, 2020. 585 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-4% with a 95% level of confidence. See the full results here.
Q1: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?
Favorable: 43%
Unfavorable: 53%
No opinion: 4%
Q2: What is your opinion of Joe Biden?
Favorable: 51%
Unfavorable: 44%
No opinion: 5%
Q3: The candidates in the 2020 General Election for State Senate are the Republican Andrew Koenig and the Democrat Deb Lavender. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Andrew Koenig: 43%
Deb Lavender: 43%
Undecided: 14%
Q4: What do you think is the most pressing concern for state government?
Dealing with the coronavirus: 35%
Reducing violent crime: 32%
Creating more jobs: 7%
Improving healthcare: 10%
Something else: 5%
Not sure: 9%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Senate District Battleground
I asked the inside-the-building crowd “Which state senate district is most likely to flip?”
It’s asked this question every few months for the past year, and the answer has shifted into a near unanimous opinion now. Senate 15 is the fiercest battleground. 27 replies…
RESULTS
1. Senate 1 Sifton (termed)… 7.4%
2. Senate 15 Koenig… 92.6%
3. Senate 17 Arthur… 0%
4. Senate 19 Rowden… 0%
Sample of Comments
· Still think Rowden is vulnerable however he has the support of the business and higher education communities in Columbia, whereas Koenig is a relative unknown in suburban St. Louis and having an R next to your name may be a liability this year.
· This should be your first unanimous poll.
· 15 without question but don’t discount how quickly 19 is becoming vulnerable.
· Lavender has been a strong fundraiser and has a reputation as a ferocious campaigner. Schupp also helps boost Lavender.
· Tough for him to survive given how bad Trump is polling in suburbia.
· Next likely is Rowden/Baker
Who Won the Week?
Suburban Democrats – This is the cycle for House Dems to pick up seats in the suburbs. The Senate 15 poll shows Trump underwater even in a Republican suburban district.
Jill Schupp – see above.
Jason Hancock – The fearless newsman jumps at a chance to strike out and start his own enterprise.
Mike Parson – Team Parson got their soundbite endorsement from Dr. Deborah Birx that she approved of Missouri’s efforts to fight the coronavirus.
Chuck Hatfield – Always in the middle of any Jeff City legal dance. This week it’s the lawsuit over the voting process for this election, and the rewrite of the CLEANER ballot question.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Protect Missouri Freedom - $100,000 from Missouri Drive Fund.
MO Drive Fund - $100,000 from IBT Drive Committee (Washington DC).
Campaign for Clean Water STL - $50,000 from Centene Management Company LLC.
Missouri Democratic State Committee - $25,000 from MO State Council of Machinists PAC
Graves Garrett, LLC PAC - $20,000 from Chouteau PAC.
Missourians for a New Approach - $15,000 from New Approach PAC.
BHA PAC - $7,500 from Hemphill and Associates Inc.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays St. Louis Alderwoman Annie Rice, and Glenn Burleigh.
Sunday: Neil Swanson.