MOScout Weekender: JeffCo Poll - What Rowden's Decision Means - Hallway Favors Vescovo - Weekend Wisdom - WWTW and more...
Rowden Out of CD-4
Some early implications for Sen. Caleb Rowden deciding to forgo a congressional bid and focus on his Senate leadership race…
· His exit from the congressional race helps the entire field, with a big boost for those from Mid-MO like Rep. Sara Walsh and Taylor Burks (unless lines are drawn in a way that they’re iced out).
· It should make redistricting easier, as you won’t have the heavy hand of Senate leadership insisting on specific contours of the 4th.
· Rowden becomes the early favorite for pro tem, a prospect likely cheered by the hallway which sees him as a moderating force against the Senate’s perpetual impulse for entropy.
MOScout / Remington Poll: JeffCo GOP
Obviously we don’t have lines for what the “Jefferson County senate district will be. So take this for what it is: a poll of the entire county. It does show name ID isn’t particularly strong for any of the state representatives; they start on an even footing. And it’s not great for the incumbent state senate either!...
Survey conducted November 3 through November 5, 2021. 400 likely 2022 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.9% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: What do you believe to be the greatest threat to America today?
China: 22%
Election Fraud: 20%
Federal Debt: 7%
Illegal Immigration: 16%
Inflation: 5%
Terrorism: 0%
CRT: 3%
Something else: 11%
Not Sure: 16%
Q2: What is your opinion of Donald Trump?
Favorable: 78%
Unfavorable: 14%
No opinion: 8%
Q3: What is your opinion of Paul Wieland?
Favorable: 24%
Unfavorable: 15%
No opinion: 61%
Q4: The candidates in the Jefferson County Republican Primary election for state senate are Mary Elizabeth Coleman, Becky Ruth, Dan Shaul, and Rob Vescovo. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Mary Elizabeth Coleman: 11%
Becky Ruth: 9%
Dan Shaul: 11%
Rob Vescovo: 14%
Undecided: 55%
Q5: Earlier this year, the state legislature approved a gas tax increase to pay for road construction and maintenance. The tax will go up 2 and half cents each year for the next 5 years. Do you agree with this action?
Yes: 30%
No: 56%
Not Sure: 14%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: JeffCo Seat
I asked lobbyists, Who's the favorite to win the Jefferson County senate seat? 23 replies…
RESULTS
1. Mary Elizabeth Coleman… 17.4%
2. Becky Ruth… 13.0%
3. Dan Shaul… 8.7%
4. Rob Vescovo… 60.9%
5. Someone else…0%
Sample of Comments
· I think Coleman is a very strong candidate, but Vescovo's financial advantage will be difficult to overcome.
· [Vescovo] $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$...
· Shaul is best suited for and most closely resembles the district.
· I don’t think they all end up being in the same district when the maps are drawn.
· How can we even guess without knowing what the district looks like? Geography always plays a role.
· Not even competitive. Vescovo has the donors, the grassroots support, and the work ethic. The others would be wise to look for other opportunities.
· I don't think Vescovo runs.
· Most money usually wins.
Weekend Wisdom
Brett Dinkins, on Twitter, tells it straight to candidates… Too many candidates want to tweet, post, and attend events rather than doing the real work it takes to win an election. Campaigns aren’t what you see on TV. If you aren’t willing to dial for dollars don’t expect to be successful.
Who Won the Week?
Shamed Dogan – Running as a Republican in St. Louis County is almost a longshot by definition at this point. But he’s corralled endorsement, and big name donors to freeze out a primary challenge, and he’s already working on a potent general election message.
Ed Reformers – Feels like they have some momentum coming off the Virginia gubernatorial race where education was a key issue.
Rob Vescovo – MOScout’s poll shows how little name ID a speaker has outside of the building. Still his warchest makes him a state senate favorite among the savvy lobbying corps.
Sara Walsh and Taylor Burks – The MidMO candidates in CD-4 get a boost as one of their own, Sen. Caleb Rowden, opts out of the race.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Viceroy PAC - $15,000 from Golden Entertainment.
Nexus PAC - $9,500 from Dellwood Acquisitions, Inc.
Lathrop Gage Consulting Political Action Committee - $25,000 from Alkin Co.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to David Humphreys, Amy Berendzen, Keith Frederick, and Joe Runions.
Sunday: Sam Graves, Jarad Falk, David Sater, and Doug Ervin.