MOScout Weekender: Greitens Schmitt Start Tied - Hallway on Senate Race - More Charges Against Derges and more...
Interesting stuff this week between the Remington poll and Hallway Index. Polling is descriptive; it’s a snapshot. The opinion of lobbyists who hold some political expertise is theoretically more predictive. We’ll see….
Remington/MOScout Poll: MO Senate Scenarios
Survey conducted March 24 through March 25, 2021. 1,041 likely 2022 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. See the full results here.
Q1: Possible candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate are Eric Greitens and Eric Schmitt. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Eric Greitens: 40%
Eric Schmitt: 39%
Undecided: 21%
Q2: Possible candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate are Eric Greitens, Eric Schmitt and Jason Smith. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Eric Greitens: 36%
Eric Schmitt: 29%
Jason Smith: 16%
Undecided: 19%
Q3: Possible candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate are Eric Greitens, Eric Schmitt and Billy Long. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Eric Greitens: 36%
Eric Schmitt: 30%
Billy Long: 14%
Undecided: 20%
Q4: Possible candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate are Eric Greitens, Eric Schmitt and Ann Wagner. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Eric Greitens: 38%
Eric Schmitt: 26%
Ann Wagner: 18%
Undecided: 18%
Q5: Possible candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate are Eric Greitens, Eric Schmitt and John Brunner. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Eric Greitens: 38%
Eric Schmitt: 30%
John Brunner: 10%
Undecided: 22%
Q6: Possible candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary Election for United States Senate are Eric Greitens, Eric Schmitt, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Billy Long, John Brunner and Vicky Hartzler. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Eric Greitens: 31%
Eric Schmitt: 18%
Jason Smith: 9%
Ann Wagner: 12%
Billy long: 6%
John Brunner: 2%
Vicky Hartzler: 8%
Undecided: 14%
TYPE OF GOP: Thinking about the various types of voters within the Republican party, which type of voter do you consider yourself to be? Traditional and Establishment, Evangelical, a Trump Republican, Libertarian, or something else?
Traditional and Establishment: 23%
Evangelical: 12%
Trump Republican: 45%
Libertarian: 3%
Something else: 17%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: MO Senate Front-Runner
“Early dartboard, who will be the Republican US Senate nominee?” 32 replies…
RESULTS
1. Eric Greitens… 18.7%
2. Eric Schmitt… 40.6%
3. One of the congressional delegation… 21.9%
4. Someone else… 18.7%
Sample of Comments
· Schmitt v Sifton might be the first time former roommates face off for a US Senate seat.
· This may be me burying my head in the sand and hoping for the least-wackadoo of the group, but... [picks Schmitt]
· Sanity will prevail, even in Missouri. Greitens can't win a general election and we all know it.
· I really think Brunner is the front-runner in this field.
· Schmitt is a prolific fundraiser. He'll have ample funds b/w candidate committee and PAC to circulate any and all parts of Greitens' epic opposition research file.
· It will be a nightmare but not sure who beats [Greitens]. This creates a train-wreck for MO with both US senators looking at the 2024 presidential.
· [Greitens is] what Republican primary voters want right now. And his story resonates with them.
· [Schmitt has] the best operation and organization.
· I really just want the resurgence of the Brunner/Greitens phone call and to know if Crystal and Karen are still employed.
More Charges Against Derges
Springfield News-Leader reports that “federal prosecutors unveiled new charges in the case against state Rep. Tricia Derges Friday, this time accusing her of misleading Greene County officials to secure a pandemic grant worth nearly $300,000. According to the latest from a grand jury, Derges, who operates multiple medical clinics in the area, effectively got the county to reimburse her for providing COVID-19 tests patients had already paid her for.
The new filing says Derges applied for the grant saying she needed the money to cover the cost of free tests for the poor provided by her nonprofit, Lift Up Someone Today, which operates a low-income clinic on Kearney Street. As proof of her costs, she included invoices totaling $296,574 from Dynamic DNA for more than 3,000 tests. But the indictment says those tests were actually provided by her for-profit company, Ozark Valley Medical Clinic, where patients themselves had already paid roughly $517,000 for the service.
When the check came to her nonprofit’s bank account, the filing adds, she transferred the funds to the company’s account…”
Who Won the Week?
John Hancock and Mike Kelley – Expanding their duo schtick to cable TV.
Cody Smith – Power move on Medicaid Expansion. Bringing a constitutional amendment to a budget fight and thinking you’ll overpower The Cody? Nope.
Trump Republicans – We’re still a long way from the starting line even, but from the looks of it, Trump Republicans in Missouri may well determine who our next senator is.
Al Watkins – Just giving him the week because we all know he’ll somehow figure in the 2022 Senate race.
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Fifth Ward Democratic Organization - $20,000 from CHIPP.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Mike Leara, Mike Kelley, and Dave Stokes.
Sunday: Joe Fallert, Scott Lipke, and Marty Oetting.